By Research Team, Dec 21, 2025
During the week, T-bills were undersubscribed for the first time in eleven weeks, with the overall subscription rate coming in at 67.3%, lower than the subscription rate of 135.7% recorded the previous week. Investors’ preference for the shorter 91-day paper waned, with the paper receiving bids worth Kshs 3.6 bn against the offered Kshs 4.0 bn, translating to a subscription rate of 89.2%, significantly lower than the subscription rate of 187.7%, recorded the previous week. The subscription rates for the 182-day paper decreased to 13.9% from 22.4% recorded the previous week, while that of the 364-day papers decreased to 111.9% from 228.3% recorded the previous week. The government accepted a total of Kshs 16.14 bn worth of bids out of Kshs 16.15 bn bids received, translating to an acceptance rate of 99.96%. The yields on the government papers showed mixed performance with the yields on the 182-day paper remaining unchanged from the 7.8% recorded the previous week, while the 364-day and 91-day papers decreased by 0.7 bps and 0.5 bps to 9.23% and 7.77% respectively from the 9.24% and 7.78% recorded the previous week;
During the week, the National Treasury released the Draft 2026 Budget Policy Statement (BPS) in line with Section 25 of the Public Finance Management (PFM) Act, 2012, which mandates the Treasury to incorporate stakeholder and public views during the preparation of the BPS. Following this consultative process, the BPS is submitted to Cabinet for approval and subsequently presented to Parliament for discussion and adoption. The statement outlines priority economic policies, structural reforms, and sectoral expenditure programs to be implemented under the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (FY 2025/26–2027/28);
During the week, the National Treasury gazetted the revenue and net expenditures for the fifth month of FY’2025/2026, ending 28th November 2025, highlighting that the total revenue collected as at the end of November 2025 amounted to Kshs 909.8 bn, equivalent to 34.6% of the original estimates of Kshs 2,627.1 bn for FY’2025/2026 and is 83.1% of the prorated estimates of Kshs 1,094.6 bn;
During the week, The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) released their monthly statement on the maximum retail fuel prices in Kenya, effective from 15th December 2025 to 14th January 2026. Notably, the maximum allowed prices for Super Petrol, Diesel and Kerosene remained unchanged from the previous pricing cycle in November. Consequently, Super Petrol, Diesel and Kerosene will continue to retail at Kshs 184.5, Kshs 171.5 and Kshs 154.8 per litre respectively;
During the week, the equities market was on an upward trajectory, with NSE 10 gaining the most by 5.6% while NSE 25, NSE 20 and NASI gained by 5.3%, 4.6% and 3.9% respectively, taking the YTD performance to gains of 50.1%, 47.2%, 45.5% and 45.3% of NSE 20, NASI, NSE 25 and NSE 10 respectively. The equities market performance was mainly driven by gains recorded by large cap stocks such as EABL, NCBA and Cooperative Bank of 24.1%, 12.3% and 6.7% respectively. The performance was, however, weighed down by losses recorded by large-cap stocks such as DTB-K of 0.9%;
Also, during the week, the banking sector index increased by 3.7% to 197.2 from 190.1 recorded the previous week. This is attributable to gains recorded by stocks such as NCBA, Cooperative Bank and Standard Chartered of 12.3%, 6.7% and 4.5% respectively;
During the week, East African Breweries PLC issued a cautionary announcement after receiving notification from its parent company, Diageo plc, of a proposed disposal of its entire 65.0% stake in the company amounting to 514.0 mn shares to Asahi Group Holdings, subject to regulatory approvals in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. At a share price of Kshs 288.75 as of 19th December 2025, EABL’s total market capitalization is Kshs 228.3 bn, while Diageo’s stake alone is valued at Kshs 148.4 bn;
During the week, the State Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that the state has missed its affordable housing buyer registration and delivery targets, with 292,326 Kenyans registered on the Boma Yangu platform by June 2025, far below the government’s initial expectations of onboarding over 500,000 potential buyers. Official disclosures show that only 292,326 people had registered by end-June, while just 2,075 housing units had been completed under the Affordable Housing Programme (AHP) between July 2022 and June 2025, significantly undershooting targets of 250,000 units per year. The State attributes the slow progress to court cases, delays in passing housing regulations, and the lack of a legal framework to support Housing Levy collections, which constrained funding and construction momentum, despite Kshs 81.4 bn already spent on the programme and a long-term budget of Kshs 627.0 bn up to 2032;
During the week, the Cabinet approved a Kshs 5.0 tn infrastructure fund aimed at accelerating investment in critical projects, including roads, railways, ports, energy, water, irrigation, and digital infrastructure. The fund, to be anchored under the Sovereign Wealth Fund and structured to attract both local and foreign private capital, is intended to reduce reliance on public debt while fast-tracking development and job creation;
During the week, Africa Logistics Properties (ALP) received approval from the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) to proceed with a restricted offer for its ALP Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (I-REIT), targeting professional investors only. The offer involves issuing up to 30 mn units at USD 1.0 per unit to raise up to USD 30.0 mn, alongside a promoter consideration of up to 15 mn units issued in exchange for seed logistics assets. The I-REIT will invest in modern Grade A and B warehousing and logistics facilities across East Africa, with initial seed assets located in Imara Daima and Tatu City, Nairobi. ALP Property Management will act as the REIT manager, with the Co-operative Bank of Kenya as the trustee, and the units are expected to be listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange in March 2026 following the offer period and regulatory milestones. However, the expected yield on the IREIT is not yet disclosed;
On the Unquoted Securities Platform, Acorn D-REIT and I-REIT traded at Kshs 27.4 and Kshs 23.2 per unit, respectively, as per the last updated data on 5th December 2025. The performance represented a 33.4% and 14.5% gain for the D-REIT and I-REIT, respectively, from the Kshs 20.0 inception price. The volumes traded for the D-REIT and I-REIT came in at 12.8 mn and 41.2 mn shares, respectively, with a turnover of Kshs 323.5 mn and Kshs 791.5 mn, respectively, since inception in February 2021. Additionally, ILAM Fahari I-REIT traded at Kshs 11.0 per share as of 5th December 2025, representing a 45.0% loss from the Kshs 20.0 inception price. The volume traded to date came in at 1.2 mn shares for the I-REIT, with a turnover of Kshs 1.5 mn since inception in November 2015;
Privatization involves transferring government-owned assets to private owners to improve efficiency, reduce public debt, attract investment, and foster competition. Kenya's privatization efforts have stalled for years. This week we review the privatization of state-owned enterprises in Kenya.
Investment Updates:
Hospitality Updates:
This week, T-bills were undersubscribed for the first time in eleven weeks, with the overall subscription rate coming in at 67.3%, lower than the subscription rate of 135.7% recorded the previous week. Investors’ preference for the shorter 91-day paper waned, with the paper receiving bids worth Kshs 3.6 bn against the offered Kshs 4.0 bn, translating to a subscription rate of 89.2%, significantly lower than the subscription rate of 187.7%, recorded the previous week. The subscription rates for the 182-day paper decreased to 13.9% from 22.4% recorded the previous week, while that of the 364-day papers decreased to 111.9% from 228.3% recorded the previous week. The government accepted a total of Kshs 16.14 bn worth of bids out of Kshs 16.15 bn bids received, translating to an acceptance rate of 99.96%. The yields on the government papers showed mixed performance with the yields on the 182-day paper remaining unchanged from the 7.8% recorded the previous week, while the 364-day and 91-day papers decreased by 0.7 bps and 0.5 bps to 9.23% and 7.77% respectively from the 9.24% and 7.78% recorded the previous week.
The chart below shows the yield growth rate for the 91-day paper from December 2024 to December month-to-date: 
The charts below show the performance of the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day papers from January 2024 to December 2025:

The chart below compares the overall average T-bill subscription rates obtained in 2022,2023, 2024 and 2025 Year-to-date (YTD):

Money Market Performance:
In the money markets, 3-month bank placements ended the week at 9.2% (based on what we have been offered by various banks). The yields on the 364-day and 91-day papers decreased by 0.7 bps and 0.5 bps to 9.23% and 7.77% respectively from the 9.24% and 7.78% recorded the previous week. The yield on the Cytonn Money Market Fund increased by 9.0 bps to 11.94% from the 11.85% recorded in the previous week, while the average yields on the Top 5 Money Market Funds increased by 8.8 bps to 11.7% from 11.6% recorded the previous week.

The table below shows the Money Market Fund Yields for Kenyan Fund Managers as published on 19th December 2025:
|
Money Market Fund Yield for Fund Managers as published on 19th December 2025 |
||
|
Rank |
Fund Manager |
Effective Annual Rate |
|
1 |
Nabo Africa Money Market Fund |
12.2% |
|
2 |
Cytonn Money Market Fund (Dial *809# or download Cytonn App) |
11.9% |
|
3 |
Arvocap Money Market Fund |
11.8% |
|
4 |
Etica Money Market Fund |
11.5% |
|
5 |
Enwealth Money Market Fund |
11.1% |
|
6 |
Lofty-Corban Money Market Fund |
11.1% |
|
7 |
Ndovu Money Market Fund |
11.1% |
|
8 |
Gulfcap Money Market Fund |
10.8% |
|
9 |
Kuza Money Market fund |
10.7% |
|
10 |
Jubilee Money Market Fund |
10.6% |
|
11 |
Old Mutual Money Market Fund |
10.6% |
|
12 |
Madison Money Market Fund |
10.1% |
|
13 |
British-American Money Market Fund |
9.6% |
|
14 |
Orient Kasha Money Market Fund |
9.6% |
|
15 |
Dry Associates Money Market Fund |
9.6% |
|
16 |
Apollo Money Market Fund |
9.5% |
|
17 |
KCB Money Market Fund |
9.5% |
|
18 |
SanlamAllianz Money Market Fund |
9.5% |
|
19 |
Faulu Money Market Fund |
9.4% |
|
20 |
GenAfrica Money Market Fund |
8.9% |
|
21 |
Genghis Money Market Fund |
8.8% |
|
22 |
CIC Money Market Fund |
8.5% |
|
23 |
ICEA Lion Money Market Fund |
8.5% |
|
24 |
CPF Money Market Fund |
8.5% |
|
25 |
Mali Money Market Fund |
8.2% |
|
26 |
Co-op Money Market Fund |
8.1% |
|
27 |
Absa Shilling Money Market Fund |
7.4% |
|
28 |
AA Kenya Shillings Fund |
6.6% |
|
29 |
Ziidi Money Market Fund |
6.4% |
|
30 |
Stanbic Money Market Fund |
6.1% |
|
31 |
Mayfair Money Market Fund |
5.7% |
|
32 |
Equity Money Market Fund |
5.0% |
Source: Business Daily
Liquidity:
During the week, liquidity in the money markets eased with the average interbank rate decreasing by 21 bps to 9.0% from 9.2% recorded the previous week, partly attributable to government payments that offset tax remittances. The average interbank volumes traded decreased by 12.7% to Kshs 11.3 bn from Kshs 12.9 bn recorded the previous week. The chart below shows the interbank rates in the market over the years:

Kenya Eurobonds:
During the week, the yields on the Eurobonds were on a downward trajectory with the yield on the 12-year Eurobond issued in 2019 decreasing the most by 42.8 bps to 7.4% from 7.8% recorded the previous week. The table below shows the summary performance of the Kenyan Eurobonds as of 18th December 2025;
|
Cytonn Report: Kenya Eurobond Performance |
|||||||
|
|
2018 |
2019 |
2021 |
2024 |
2025 |
||
|
Tenor |
10-year issue |
30-year issue |
7-year issue |
12-year issue |
13-year issue |
7-year issue |
11-year issue |
|
Amount Issued (USD) |
1.0 bn |
1.0 bn |
0.9 bn |
1.2 bn |
1.0 bn |
1.5 bn |
1.5 bn |
|
Years to Maturity |
2.5 |
22.5 |
1.7 |
6.7 |
8.8 |
5.5 |
10.5 |
|
Yields at Issue |
7.3% |
8.3% |
7.0% |
7.9% |
6.2% |
10.4% |
9.9% |
|
2-Jan-25 |
9.1% |
10.3% |
8.5% |
10.1% |
10.1% |
10.1% |
|
|
4-Dec-25 |
6.2% |
9.1% |
- |
8.1% |
8.6% |
7.9% |
|
|
11-Dec-25 |
6.3% |
9.1% |
- |
7.8% |
8.4% |
7.8% |
|
|
15-Dec-25 |
6.3% |
8.9% |
- |
7.5% |
8.1% |
7.4% |
|
|
16-Dec-25 |
6.3% |
8.9% |
- |
7.5% |
8.1% |
7.4% |
|
|
17-Dec-25 |
6.3% |
9.0% |
- |
7.5% |
8.1% |
7.4% |
10.0% |
|
18-Dec-25 |
6.2% |
8.9% |
|
7.4% |
8.0% |
7.3% |
|
|
Weekly Change |
(0.1%) |
(0.2%) |
- |
(0.4%) |
(0.4%) |
(0.5%) |
0.0% |
|
MTD Change |
0.0% |
(0.2%) |
- |
(0.7%) |
(0.6%) |
(0.6%) |
0.0% |
|
YTD Change |
(2.9%) |
(1.3%) |
- |
(2.7%) |
(2.1%) |
(2.8%) |
0.0% |
Source: Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) and National Treasury
Kenya Shilling:
During the week, the Kenya Shilling appreciated against the US Dollar by 16.2 bps, to close the week at Kshs 129.0, from Kshs 129.2 recorded the previous week. On a year-to-date basis, the shilling has appreciated by 27.2 bps against the dollar, lower than the 17.6% appreciation recorded in 2024.
We expect the shilling to be supported by:
The shilling is however expected to remain under pressure in 2025 as a result of:
Kenya’s forex reserves increased by 0.6% during the week to remain relatively unchanged from the USD 12.1 bn recorded the previous week, equivalent to 5.3 months of import cover, and above the statutory requirement of maintaining at least 4.0-months of import cover.
The chart below summarizes the evolution of Kenya's months of import cover over the years:

Weekly Highlights
The National Treasury released the Draft 2026 Budget Policy Statement (BPS) in line with Section 25 of the Public Finance Management (PFM) Act, 2012, which mandates the Treasury to incorporate stakeholder and public views during the preparation of the BPS. Following this consultative process, the BPS is submitted to Cabinet for approval and subsequently presented to Parliament for discussion and adoption. The statement outlines priority economic policies, structural reforms, and sectoral expenditure programs to be implemented under the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (FY 2025/26–2027/28).
Below is a summary of the major changes as per the BPS 2026 from the expected FY’2026/2027 budget performance:
|
Comparison of 2025/26 and 2026/27 Fiscal Year Budgets as per the 2026 Budget Policy Statement |
||||
|
|
FY'2024/2025 Budget Outturn |
FY'2025/2026 (Budget) |
FY'2026/2027 BPS |
% change |
|
2025/26 to 2026/27 |
||||
|
Total revenue |
2,923.6 |
3,321.7 |
3,487.0 |
5.0% |
|
External grants |
33.3 |
47.2 |
48.8 |
3.4% |
|
Total revenue & external grants |
2,956.9 |
3,368.9 |
3,535.8 |
5.0% |
|
Recurrent expenditure |
2,948.4 |
3,134.1 |
3,431.2 |
9.5% |
|
Development expenditure & Net Lending |
582.9 |
649.0 |
759.1 |
17.0% |
|
County governments + contingencies |
444.6 |
484.8 |
446.6 |
(7.9%) |
|
Total expenditure |
3,975.9 |
4,269.9 |
4,641.9 |
8.7% |
|
Fiscal deficit including grants |
1,019.0 |
901.0 |
1,106.1 |
22.8% |
|
Deficit as % of GDP |
5.9% |
4.7% |
5.3% |
0.6% |
|
Net foreign borrowing |
179.7 |
287.4 |
99.5 |
(65.4%) |
|
Net domestic borrowing |
854.5 |
613.5 |
1006.6 |
64.1% |
|
Total borrowing |
1034.2 |
901.0 |
1106.1 |
22.8% |
|
GDP Estimate |
17,148.7 |
19,006.2 |
20,916.8 |
10.1% |
Key take-outs from the table include:
The 2026/27 Budget Policy Statement is the fourth to be prepared under the current administration and aims to advance the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda. The BPS is formulated against a backdrop of moderating economic activity in FY’2026, with estimated GDP growth projected at 5.3% in FY’2026. Implementation of the budget will rely heavily on enhanced revenue mobilization, with the Treasury targeting revenues of Kshs 3,487.0 bn. The BPS emphasizes fiscal consolidation through reduced debt accumulation to ease the country’s overall debt burden. In line with the administration’s manifesto, recurrent expenditure is projected to increase by 9.5% to Kshs 3,431.2 bn, while development expenditure and net lending is set to rise by 17.0% to Kshs 759.1 bn to support key development priorities. The FY’2026/27 fiscal deficit is projected at Kshs 1,106.1 bn, to be financed through a mix of domestic and external borrowing, compared to Kshs 901.0 bn in the FY’2025/26 budget.
To read more of our analysis on the 2026 Draft BPS, please click 2026 Draft Budget Policy Statement Note
The National Treasury gazetted the revenue and net expenditures for the fifth month of FY’2025/2026, ending 28th November 2025. Below is a summary of the performance:
|
FY'2025/2026 Budget Outturn - As at 28th November 2025 |
||||||
|
Amounts in Kshs billions unless stated otherwise |
||||||
|
Item |
12-months Original Estimates |
Actual Receipts/Release |
Percentage Achieved |
Prorated |
% achieved of the Prorated |
|
|
Opening Balance |
|
6.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Tax Revenue |
2,627.1 |
909.8 |
34.6% |
1,094.6 |
83.1% |
|
|
Non-Tax Revenue |
127.6 |
42.2 |
33.0% |
53.2 |
79.3% |
|
|
Total Revenue |
2,754.7 |
958.4 |
34.8% |
1,147.8 |
83.5% |
|
|
External Loans & Grants |
569.8 |
222.0 |
39.0% |
237.4 |
93.5% |
|
|
Domestic Borrowings |
1,098.3 |
622.7 |
56.7% |
457.6 |
136.1% |
|
|
Other Domestic Financing |
10.8 |
6.4 |
59.2% |
4.5 |
142.1% |
|
|
Total Financing |
1,678.9 |
851.1 |
50.7% |
699.5 |
121.7% |
|
|
Recurrent Exchequer issues |
1,470.4 |
594.6 |
40.4% |
612.7 |
97.1% |
|
|
CFS Exchequer Issues |
2,141.0 |
919.7 |
43.0% |
892.1 |
103.1% |
|
|
Development Expenditure & Net Lending |
407.1 |
121.8 |
29.9% |
169.6 |
71.8% |
|
|
County Governments + Contingencies |
415.0 |
137.0 |
33.0% |
172.9 |
79.2% |
|
|
Total Expenditure |
4,433.6 |
1,773.1 |
40.0% |
1,847.3 |
96.0% |
|
|
Fiscal Deficit excluding Grants |
1,678.9 |
814.7 |
48.5% |
699.5 |
116.5% |
|
|
Total Borrowing |
1,668.1 |
844.7 |
50.6% |
695.0 |
121.5% |
|
|
Public Debt |
1,901.4 |
865.8 |
45.5% |
792.2 |
109.3% |
|
The Key take-outs from the release include;

During the week, The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) released their monthly statement on the maximum retail fuel prices in Kenya, effective from 15th December 2025 to 14th January 2026. Notably, the maximum allowed prices for Super Petrol, Diesel and Kerosene remained unchanged from the previous pricing cycle in November. Consequently, Super Petrol, Diesel and Kerosene will continue to retail at Kshs 184.5, Kshs 171.5 and Kshs 154.8 per litre respectively.
Other key take-outs from the performance include,
We note that fuel prices in the country have stabilized in recent months largely due to the government's efforts to stabilize pump prices through the petroleum pump price stabilization mechanism which expended Kshs 13.7 bn in the FY’2024/25 to cushion the increases applied to the petroleum pump prices, coupled with the stabilization of the Kenyan Shilling against the dollar and other major currencies. Additionally, the government increased spending through the price stabilization mechanism, subsidizing Kshs 5.7 and Kshs 9.1 per litre for Diesel and Kerosene, compared to Kshs 0.5, Kshs 2.3 and Kshs 4.2 for Petrol, Diesel and Kerosene in November which saw a stabilization in fuel prices for the period under review.
Going forward, we expect that fuel prices will stabilize in the coming months as a result of the government's efforts to mitigate the cost of petroleum through the pump price stabilization mechanism and a stable exchange rate. As such, we expect the business environment in the country to improve as fuel is a major input cost, as well as continued stability in inflationary pressures, with the inflation rate expected to remain within the CBK’s preferred target range of 2.5%-7.5% in the short to medium term.
Rates in the Fixed Income market have been on a downward trend due to high liquidity in the money market which allowed the government to front load most of its borrowing. The government is 119.1% ahead of its prorated net domestic borrowing target of Kshs 303.4 bn, having a net borrowing position of Kshs 664.7 bn (inclusive of T-bills). However, we expect a stabilization of the yield curve in the short and medium term, with the government looking to increase its external borrowing to maintain the fiscal surplus, hence alleviating pressure in the domestic market. As such, we expect the yield curve to stabilize in the short to medium-term and hence investors are expected to shift towards the long-term papers to lock in the high returns
Market Performance:
During the week, the equities market was on an upward trajectory, with NSE 10 gaining the most by 5.6% while NSE 25, NSE 20 and NASI gained by 5.3%, 4.6% and 3.9% respectively, taking the YTD performance to gains of 50.1%, 47.2%, 45.5% and 45.3% of NSE 20, NASI, NSE 25 and NSE 10 respectively. The equities market performance was mainly driven by gains recorded by large cap stocks such as EABL, NCBA and Cooperative Bank of 24.1%, 12.3% and 6.7% respectively. The performance was, however, weighed down by losses recorded by large-cap stocks such as DTB-K of 0.9%.
Also, during the week, the banking sector index increased by 3.7% to 197.2 from 190.1 recorded the previous week. This is attributable to gains recorded by stocks such as NCBA, Cooperative Bank and Standard Chartered of 12.3%, 6.7% and 4.5% respectively.
During the week, equities turnover increased by 87.0% to USD 60.2 mn from USD 32.2 mn recorded the previous week, taking the YTD total turnover to USD 1,094.2 mn. Foreign investors remained net buyers for the second consecutive week with a net buying position of USD 0.9 mn, from a net buying position of USD 2.7 mn recorded the previous week, taking the YTD foreign net selling position to USD 92.6 mn, compared to a net selling position of USD 16.9 mn recorded in 2024.
The market is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 7.3x, 36.0% below the historical average of 11.3x. The dividend yield stands at 5.4%, 0.7% points above the historical average of 4.7%. Key to note, NASI’s PEG ratio currently stands at 0.9x, an indication that the market is slightly undervalued relative to its future growth. A PEG ratio greater than 1.0x indicates the market may be overvalued while a PEG ratio less than 1.0x indicates that the market is undervalued.
The charts below indicate the historical P/E and dividend yields of the market;


Universe of Coverage:
|
Cytonn Report: Equities Universe of Coverage |
||||||||||
|
Company |
Price as at 11/12/2025 |
Price as at 19/12/2025 |
w/w change |
YTD Change |
Year Open 2025 |
Target Price* |
Dividend Yield |
Upside/ Downside** |
P/TBv Multiple |
Recommendation |
|
ABSA Bank |
22.0 |
22.1 |
0.5% |
17.2% |
18.9 |
28.3 |
7.9% |
36.0% |
1.4x |
Buy |
|
I&M Group |
45.2 |
42.9 |
(5.1%) |
19.0% |
36.0 |
53.1 |
7.0% |
30.9% |
0.8x |
Buy |
|
Equity Group |
60.5 |
62.5 |
3.3% |
30.2% |
48.0 |
75.2 |
6.8% |
27.1% |
1.1x |
Buy |
|
Co-op Bank |
21.8 |
23.3 |
6.7% |
33.2% |
17.5 |
26.8 |
6.5% |
21.7% |
0.8x |
Buy |
|
NCBA |
79.3 |
89.0 |
12.3% |
74.5% |
51.0 |
101.3 |
6.2% |
20.0% |
1.4x |
Buy |
|
Diamond Trust Bank |
115.0 |
114.0 |
(0.9%) |
70.8% |
66.8 |
129.4 |
6.1% |
19.6% |
0.4x |
Accumulate |
|
Standard Chartered Bank |
287.0 |
300.0 |
4.5% |
5.2% |
285.3 |
307.9 |
15.0% |
17.6% |
1.7x |
Accumulate |
|
Stanbic Holdings |
193.8 |
195.5 |
0.9% |
39.9% |
139.8 |
205.5 |
10.6% |
15.7% |
1.2x |
Accumulate |
|
Jubilee Holdings |
326.8 |
311.8 |
(4.6%) |
78.4% |
174.8 |
333.5 |
4.3% |
11.3% |
0.5x |
Accumulate |
|
KCB Group |
59.8 |
62.3 |
4.2% |
46.8% |
42.4 |
65.8 |
4.8% |
10.5% |
0.8x |
Accumulate |
|
Britam |
8.8 |
8.9 |
1.4% |
52.6% |
5.8 |
9.5 |
0.0% |
7.2% |
0.8x |
Hold |
|
CIC Group |
4.5 |
4.4 |
(2.9%) |
103.7% |
2.1 |
4.0 |
3.0% |
(4.6%) |
1.2x |
Sell |
|
*Target Price as per Cytonn Analyst estimates **Upside/ (Downside) is adjusted for Dividend Yield ***Dividend Yield is calculated using FY’2024 Dividends |
||||||||||
Weekly Highlights
During the week, East African Breweries PLC issued a cautionary announcement after receiving notification from its parent company, Diageo plc, of a proposed disposal of its entire 65.0% stake in the company amounting to 514.0 mn shares to Asahi Group Holdings, subject to regulatory approvals in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. At a share price of Kshs 288.75 as of 19th December 2025, EABL’s total market capitalization is Kshs 228.3 bn, while Diageo’s stake alone is valued at Kshs 148.4 bn.
Prior to the intention of sale of shares, Diageo owned 65.0% of the issued shares of EABL through its wholly-owned indirect subsidiary Diageo Kenya Limited, and 53.7% of the shares of UDV (Kenya) Limited through its wholly-owned subsidiary Diageo Great Britain Limited. Once Asahi’s application to the capital market authorities in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania is approved, Asahi Group Limited will be the official majority shareholder in EABL with a 65.0% stake while the public shareholders will still maintain the 35.0% stake as broken down in the table below:
|
Cytonn Report: EABL’s Shareholding |
|||||
|
Before Acquisition |
After Acquisition |
||||
|
Name of Shareholder |
Number of shares |
% Shareholding |
Name of Shareholder |
Number of shares |
% Shareholding |
|
Diageo Kenya Limited |
514,003,331 |
65.0% |
Asahi Group Holdings |
514,003,331 |
65.0% |
|
Standard Chartered Kenya Nominees A/C KE004667 |
22,935,194 |
2.9% |
Standard Chartered Kenya Nominees A/C KE004667 |
22,935,194 |
2.9% |
|
Standard Chartered Kenya Non-Resd. A/C KE 10085 |
20,840,500 |
2.6% |
Standard Chartered Kenya Non-Resd. A/C KE 10085 |
20,840,500 |
2.6% |
|
Kenya Commercial Bank Nominees Ltd A/C 915BB |
9,757,254 |
1.2% |
Kenya Commercial Bank Nominees Ltd A/C 915BB |
9,757,254 |
1.2% |
|
Stanbic Nominees Limited R6631578 |
7,995,122 |
1.0% |
Stanbic Nominees Limited R6631578 |
7,995,122 |
1.0% |
|
Stanbic Nominees Ltd A/C NR1031436 |
7,941,502 |
1.0% |
Stanbic Nominees Ltd A/C NR1031436 |
7,941,502 |
1.0% |
|
Standard Chartered Kenya Nominees A/C KE22446 |
7,758,455 |
1.0% |
Standard Chartered Kenya Nominees A/C KE22446 |
7,758,455 |
1.0% |
|
Standard Chartered Kenya Nominees Non-Resd A/C 9866 |
5,981,912 |
0.8% |
Standard Chartered Kenya Nominees Non-Resd A/C 9866 |
5,981,912 |
0.8% |
|
Stanbic Nominees ltd A/C NR3530153 |
5,886,950 |
0.7% |
Stanbic Nominees ltd A/C NR3530153 |
5,886,950 |
0.7% |
|
Secretary To the Treasury - "PF" Account the Permanent |
4,829,436 |
0.6% |
Secretary To the Treasury - "PF" Account the Permanent |
4,829,436 |
0.6% |
|
Others |
182,844,700 |
23.1% |
Others |
182,844,700 |
23.1% |
|
Total |
790,774,356 |
100.0% |
|
790,774,356 |
100.0% |
Source: EABL Annual Report 2025
Asahi is a global beverage and food conglomerate headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. Asahi is listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and has a current market capitalization of JPY 2.6 tn and a revenue of JPY 2.9 bn as at FY’2024, equivalent to USD 17.0 bn and USD 19.0 bn respectively. Outside of its domestic Japanese market, Asahi markets its products across the globe in regions including Asia, Oceania, Europe and North America, offering a diverse portfolio of beer, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages and food products. Moreover, this transaction marks Asahi’s first significant investment in Africa and will serve as an important foundation of Asahi’s growth in the region.
In 2023, Diageo increased its shareholding in EABL to 65.0% through a tender offer made to shareholders. As of the time of the offer, Diageo had not expressed its intention to sell its stake in EABL and that this has come up this year due to developments that have affected Diageo’s business. In October 2025, EABL launched its Kshs 20.0 bn Medium Term Note (MTN) Programme, where the first tranche of notes an aggregate principal amount of Kshs 16.8 bn was issued on 18th November 2025. It is important to note that the MTN Program is an independent financing transaction where EABL had issued notes to creditors of the company and that the Diageo-Asahi transaction will have no impact on EABL’s financial performance and its ability to repay its obligations as far as the notes are concerned. Completion of the Proposed Transaction is subject to approval from Capital Market Authorities in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.
It is important to note that the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) has instructed EABL to explain the raising of the Kshs 16.8 bn through the MTN programme and the announcement of the exit of its parent firm within a span of 35 days. This comes after speculation that EABL had knowledge of Diageo’s planned exit but opted not to inform the bondholders. This has prompted regulatory action from CMA since the exit of a majority shareholder is deemed material information that ought to have been made public to the bondholders. In response, EABL issued a notice stating that it was not aware of Diageo’s planned exit from EABL when it issued the 5-year bond. With the MTN program being an independent financing position EABL has assured its creditors that Diageo’s exit will not have any effect on its balance sheet and its ability to repay its loan. Therefore, once CMA is satisfied that EABL did not conceal such material information, the Diageo-Asahi deal will proceed as planned.
The proposed disposal of Diageo’s 65.0% stake in EABL to Asahi Group Holdings represents a major shift in the company’s ownership structure and marks a new chapter for one of East Africa’s most significant consumer goods firms. Importantly, market sentiment has been notably positive since the announcement, with EABL’s share price rallying 19.3% gain from the pre-announcement price of Kshs 251.25 on 16th December 2025 to a high of Kshs 299.75 as of 18th December 2025, a level last seen in 6th June 2016 which recorded a high of Kshs 300.80. While the transaction is sizeable and strategically important, it does not alter EABL’s underlying operations, capital structure, or existing obligations, including its recently issued MTN program. Subject to regulatory approvals across the region, Asahi’s entry as the majority shareholder is likely to bring fresh strategic direction and long-term growth ambitions, particularly given its global footprint and first major foray into Africa. Overall, the transaction is more of a shareholder-level change than an operational disruption, with EABL well-positioned to maintain stability while potentially benefiting from Asahi’s global expertise and expansion strategy.
We are “Bullish” on the Equities markets in the short term due to current attractive valuations, lower yields on short-term government papers and expected global and local economic recovery, and, “Neutral” in the long term due to persistent foreign investor outflows. With the market currently trading at a discount to its future growth (PEG Ratio at 0.9x), we believe that investors should reposition towards value stocks with strong earnings growth and that are trading at discounts to their intrinsic value. We expect the current high foreign investors sell-offs to continue weighing down the economic outlook in the short term.
During the week, the state department of housing and urban development reported that the State missed its affordable housing buyer registration and delivery targets, with 292,326 Kenyans registered on the Boma Yangu platform by June 2025, 41.5% below the government’s initial expectations of onboarding over 500,000 buyers. Official disclosures show that only 292,326 people registered by end-June, while just 2,075 housing units had been completed under the Affordable Housing Programme (AHP) between July 2022 and June 2025, significantly undershooting target of 250,000 units annually signifying 0.8% achievement of the target. The State attributes the slow progress to court cases, delays in passing housing regulations, and the lack of a legal framework to support Housing Levy collections, which constrained funding and construction momentum, despite Kshs 81.4 bn already spent on the programme and a long-term budget of Kshs 627.0 bn up to 2032.
We expect that the missed targets are likely to weigh on the residential sector by prolonging the supply deficit in affordable housing that stood at 2 million units by 2022, keeping pressure on rents and entry-level house prices, especially in urban areas. Delays in delivery and buyer uptake may dampen confidence among private developers and financiers, slowing new residential project launches or pushing developers to focus on higher-income segments perceived as less risky. At the same time, persistent unmet demand underscores a structural opportunity in affordable housing, suggesting that once regulatory clarity, funding mechanisms, and execution improve, the sector could see renewed activity, stronger public–private partnerships, and increased investment aimed at closing Kenya’s housing gap.
During the week, the Cabinet approved a Kshs 5.0 tn infrastructure fund aimed at accelerating investment in critical projects, including roads, railways, ports, energy, water, irrigation, and digital infrastructure. The fund, to be anchored under the Sovereign Wealth Fund and structured to attract both local and foreign private capital, is intended to reduce reliance on public debt while fast-tracking development and job creation.
The National Infrastructure Fund will serve as the central vehicle for financing priority public infrastructure projects. It will be overseen by a competitively appointed board of directors and a chief executive officer to ensure strong governance, transparency and commercial discipline. Under the new framework, all proceeds from privatization will be ring-fenced exclusively for infrastructure projects that generate long-term public value.
We expect that the creation of the Kshs 5.0 tn infrastructure fund will significantly boost the infrastructure sector by unlocking large-scale, long-term financing for priority projects that have often stalled due to fiscal constraints and rising public debt. By crowding in private and institutional capital through the Sovereign Wealth Fund framework, the initiative can accelerate delivery of roads, rail, ports, energy, water, and digital infrastructure, improve project execution efficiency, and support local construction, engineering, and logistics firms. Over time, this could enhance productivity across the economy, lower the cost of doing business, and stimulate job creation, although its success will depend on strong governance, transparent project selection, and effective risk-sharing to ensure infrastructure investment does not crowd out funding for critical social sectors.
During the week, Africa Logistics Properties (ALP) received approval from the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) to proceed with a restricted offer for its ALP Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (I-REIT), targeting professional investors only. The offer involves issuing up to 30 mn units at USD 1.0 per unit to raise up to USD 30.0 mn, alongside a promoter consideration of up to 15 mn units issued in exchange for seed logistics assets. The I-REIT will invest in modern Grade A and B warehousing and logistics facilities across East Africa, with initial seed assets located in Imara Daima and Tatu City, Nairobi. ALP Property Management will act as the REIT manager, while the Co-operative Bank of Kenya as the trustee, and the units are expected to be listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange in March 2026 following the offer period and regulatory milestones.
We expect that the ALP Industrial REIT will strengthen and diversify Kenya’s REIT industry by expanding it beyond the traditionally dominant retail and commercial office segments into industrial and logistics real estate, which is viewed as more resilient and demand-driven. Its focus on a restricted offer to professional investors may help improve pricing discipline, governance standards, and performance credibility, addressing some of the confidence challenges that have faced earlier REITs. If successful, the listing could serve as a proof point that sector-specific, income-focused REITs can attract capital, encouraging more developers to structure assets into REITs, deepening the pipeline, improving market depth on the NSE, and gradually restoring investor confidence in REITs as a viable long-term investment vehicle in Kenya.
On the Unquoted Securities Platform, Acorn D-REIT and I-REIT traded at Kshs 27.4 and Kshs 23.2 per unit, respectively, as per the last updated data on 5th December 2025. The performance represented a 33.4% and 14.5% gain for the D-REIT and I-REIT, respectively, from the Kshs 20.0 inception price. The volumes traded for the D-REIT and I-REIT came in at 12.8 mn and 41.2 mn shares, respectively, with a turnover of Kshs 323.5 mn and Kshs 791.5 mn, respectively, since inception in February 2021. Additionally, ILAM Fahari I-REIT traded at Kshs 11.0 per share as of 5th December 2025, representing a 45.0% loss from the Kshs 20.0 inception price. The volume traded to date came in at 1.2 mn shares for the I-REIT, with a turnover of Kshs 1.5 mn since inception in November 2015.
REITs offer various benefits, such as tax exemptions, diversified portfolios, and stable long-term profits. However, the ongoing decline in the performance of Kenyan REITs and the restructuring of their business portfolios are hindering significant previous investments. Additional general challenges include:
We expect the performance of Kenya’s Real Estate sector to remain resilient, supported by several factors: i) Cabinet approval of the Kshs 5.0 tn infrastructure fund, (ii) There is also an improvement in the REITs market with CMA approval of the Africa Logistics Properties Industrial REIT. However, challenges such as weak investor appetite in listed REITs like ILAM Fahari I-REIT and high capital requirements will continue to constrain the sector’s optimal performance.
Privatization involves selling government-owned assets (including shares in state-owned companies) to private individuals or businesses. This excludes selling new shares to current shareholders or financial restructuring within a company that might reduce the government's ownership percentage. The proof of long-term inefficiencies, misconduct, poor financial management, and waste in state owned enterprises (SOEs) necessitates the need for privatization which typically tries to increase economic efficiency by increasing a company's performance, hence eliminating or reducing the need for government economic intervention, attract private investment and foster innovation. Furthermore, privatizations have been utilized to promote competition in monopolized industries. By transitioning from state control to private ownership, these enterprises are envisioned to become more agile, responsive to market dynamics, and better positioned to contribute significantly to the nation’s socio-economic development. SOEs fund their budgets through Government transfers (recurrent grants), Appropriation-in-Aid (A-in-A) and loans. As at the end of FY’2024/25, publicly guaranteed debt by SOEs stood at Kshs 83.2 bn, a 16.2% decrease from Kshs 100.2 bn in FY’2023/24, though it remains elevated despite the decline. As a result, privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been identified as a fiscal enhancement option, and it is one of the requirements imposed by multilateral lenders such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for access to concessional lending facilities.
Kenya's privatization efforts have stalled for years. Although the previous government identified 11 state-owned companies for privatization in 2023, none were actually sold. However, the new regime is aiming to speed up the process to improve the government's financial health. In February 2024, Kenya’s Cabinet approved the sale of seven more state owned enterprises bringing the total number to eighteen. Additionally, the Privatization Bill 2025 was assented to the Privatization Act 2025 which replaced the Privatization Act 2023, introducing new regulatory dynamics for privatizing public companies in Kenya. The Act intends to establish the Privatization Authority, streamline the regulatory framework for privatization, prohibit unfair trade practices, and promote transparency and public participation in Kenya’s privatization programme. In this week’s focus, we shall cover the following:
Section I: History of SOE Privatization in Kenya
The history of privatization in Kenya reflects a journey from the initial enthusiasm for state control and ownership of enterprises to a recognition of the inefficiencies and limitations of such a model. After gaining independence in 1963, Kenya established parastatals driven by various national goals outlined in Sessional Paper No. 10 of 1965 on African Socialism and its application in Kenya. These goals included accelerating economic and social development, addressing regional economic imbalances, promoting indigenous entrepreneurship, and encouraging both Kenyan and foreign investments. However, over time, it became evident that the state-controlled enterprises had significant shortcomings. Reviews conducted in 1979 and 1982 highlighted widespread inefficiencies, financial mismanagement, and political interference within parastatals. There was a realization that state ownership stifled private sector initiatives, resulted in low productivity, and burdened the government with excessive fiscal responsibility.
In response to these challenges, the Kenyan government-initiated measures to reform its public enterprises. The enactment of the State Corporations Act was one such effort aimed at streamlining management. However, despite these efforts, the performance of most state corporations continued to decline due to reliance on limited public sector financing, over-employment, corruption, and mismanagement.
The turning point came in July 1992 with the issuance of the Policy Paper on Public Enterprise Reform and Privatization. This marked the beginning of a structured privatization program aimed at divesting the government's ownership of commercial enterprises. The program categorized enterprises into non-strategic and strategic ones, with the former slated for privatization. During the first phase of privatization, which concluded in 2002, most non-strategic commercial enterprises were either fully or partially privatized. However, the impact on the economy was limited due to institutional weaknesses and the exclusion of large strategic companies from privatization.
Subsequent phases of privatization, including initiatives under the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation (ERSWEC) and Vision 2030, focused on key transactions such as initial public offers (IPOs), concessioning, and strategic partnerships. These transactions aimed to mobilize investment resources, modernize infrastructure, and support the country's economic recovery and development agenda. Privatization under Vision 2030 sought to enhance efficiency, competitiveness, and market orientation in Kenya's economy. It aimed to subject more production to market forces, attract investment for infrastructure development, and increase government revenue through privatization proceeds and improved enterprise performance. Under ERSWEC, a number of key privatizations took place as outlined in the table below;
|
Cytonn Report: Government of Kenya Completed Privatizations |
|||||
|
Company |
Year |
Method of Privatization |
Government Share Before |
Government Share After |
Sector |
|
Safaricom |
2008 |
IPO |
60.0% |
35.0% |
Telecommunication |
|
Kenya Reinsurance Corporation |
2007 |
IPO |
100.0% |
60.0% |
Insurance |
|
Telkom Kenya |
2007 |
Strategic Sale |
100.0% |
49.0% |
Telecommunication |
|
Kenya Electricity Generating Company |
2006 |
IPO |
100.0% |
70.0% |
Energy |
|
Kenya Railways Corporation |
2006 |
Concessioning |
100.0% |
100.0% |
Transport |
|
Mumias Sugar Company 2nd Offer |
2006 |
IPO |
38.4% |
20.0% |
Manufacturing |
Source: Privatization Commission of Kenya
The history of privatization in Kenya reflects a transition from state control to a more market-oriented approach, driven by the recognition of the limitations of state-owned enterprises and the need for greater private sector participation in the economy.
Section II: The Privatization Act 2023
Kenya’s privatization of StateOwned Enterprises (SOEs) is now governed by the Privatization Act 2025, which the President assented to in October 2025, replacing the 2023 Act, which had repealed the 2005 Act. The new Act establishes the Privatization Authority under the National Treasury to oversee asset sales, directs proceeds toward national development, and introduces a more transparent framework with public participation and parliamentary oversight, while also speeding up the process by reducing steps and eliminating certain formalities. Supporting policies include the GovernmentOwned Enterprises (GOE) Act, 2025, which establishes a framework that governs the performance, accountability, and management of governmentowned enterprises, ensuring they operate efficiently, transparently, and in line with constitutional principles.
The Act establishes Kenya’s modern framework for privatization, ensuring that the process is not only about transferring ownership but also about strengthening governance, promoting transparency, and aligning with national development priorities. Its roles include:
The Privatization Act, 2025 transforms privatization into a comprehensive governance reform. By combining efficiency, transparency, competition, and social safeguards, it ensures that privatization strengthens Kenya’s fiscal health while protecting citizens and national interests.
The Privatization Act 2025 introduces significant changes to the process and oversight of privatization in Kenya. Here are the key features of the new Act:
Although the Privatization Act, 2025 closely mirrors the 2023 Act, it introduces two notable differences and improvements, as highlighted in the table below:
|
Cytonn Report: Key Differences between the 2023 and 2025 Privatization Acts |
|||
|
# |
|
2023 Act |
2025 Act |
|
1. |
Parliamentary Approval |
Under the 2023 Act, the privatization programme was formulated by the Cabinet Secretary and approved by the Cabinet, with the National Assembly’s role limited to ratification before implementation. Parliament could refuse to ratify and provide reasons, but if no action was taken within 90 days, the programme was automatically deemed ratified |
The privatization programme under this Act requires approval from both the Cabinet and the National Assembly. The National Assembly is vested with the authority to reject or propose amendments to any privatization proposal. |
|
2. |
Board Composition |
The Board included the Principal Secretary to the National Treasury, the Principal Secretary for investment promotion, the Secretary to the State Corporations Advisory Committee, and four competitively appointed professionals with specific qualifications and experience. |
The Board composition was streamlined to include only the Principal Secretary responsible for privatization, the AttorneyGeneral, six competitively appointed members without prescribed qualifications, and excluded the Treasury, investment promotion, and State Corporations Advisory Committee representatives |
Source: Privatization Commission of Kenya
The Privatization Act, 2023 was declared unconstitutional, null and void by the High Court on 24th September 2024 due to lack of adequate public participation, the unconstitutionality of Section 22(5) on automatic ratification after 90 days without parliamentary action, and the unlawful decision to privatize the Kenyatta International Conference Centre, a protected national monument. The Kenyan Privatization Act of 2025 marks a significant refinement in the management and procedures governing privatization efforts within the country. Notable changes include the strengthening of the Privatization Authority as a corporate body vested with extensive powers and responsibilities, building on the reforms of 2023. This restructuring reinforces corporate governance through the establishment of a professional oversight board and key positions such as the managing director and corporate secretary, ensuring accountability and operational efficiency. Additionally, the Act continues to grant the Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury a pivotal role in formulating and ratifying privatization programs, but now introduces clearer checks and timelines to streamline approvals and mitigate bureaucratic delays. Concerns remain, however, regarding the potential concentration of power in the Cabinet Secretary’s office and the risk of monopolization in certain sectors, prompting calls for stronger parliamentary oversight and enhanced safeguards to guarantee transparency and accountability.
Moreover, the Act refines the scope of privatization options, emphasizing Initial Public Offerings and negotiated sales while maintaining the exclusion of concessions, leases, and management contracts. It strengthens provisions aimed at preventing unregulated monopolies and embeds dispute resolution mechanisms to address conflicts arising from privatization transactions. Importantly, the Act allows for the utilization of privatization proceeds to offset costs, introduces stricter penalties for offenses such as falsified information, insider trading, or collusion, and aligns privatization with constitutional values of equity, inclusivity, and fiscal responsibility. While the Act represents a long-awaited reform to address inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises, concerns persist regarding the balance of power and the potential for abuse, underscoring the need for vigilant oversight.
Overall, the Privatization Act of 2025 represents a significant step forward in Kenya’s privatization framework, aiming to streamline processes, enhance efficiency, and stimulate economic growth while raising important questions about accountability, transparency, and the equitable distribution of benefits.
The Privatization Act, 2025 outlines several approaches through which government-owned enterprises can be transferred to private ownership. Each method serves a distinct purpose in balancing efficiency, transparency, and public interest.
These methods reflect a balance between market-driven approaches (IPO, tender) and protective mechanisms (pre‑emptive rights, Cabinet discretion). Together, they ensure privatization is not only about raising revenue but also about deepening capital markets, safeguarding fairness, and protecting strategic interests.
Section III: The Benefits of Privatizing State-Owned Enterprises in Kenya
|
Cytonn Report: List of Guaranteed Stock Balances in FY’2024/2025 |
|||
|
|
Agency |
Amount (Kshs mn) |
Percentage |
|
1. |
Kenya Ports Authority |
46,159.0 |
55.5% |
|
2. |
Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KENGEN) |
27,392.0 |
32.9% |
|
3. |
Kenya Airways |
9,690.0 |
11.6% |
|
Total |
83,241.0 |
100.0% |
|
Source: National Treasury
Additionally, the total publicly guaranteed debt by SOEs has recorded a 5- year CAGR of (11.9%), decreasing to Kshs 83.2 bn as at the end of June 2025 from the Kshs 157.2 bn recorded as at the end of June 2021. The decline in governmentguaranteed debt by June 2025 was mainly due to repayments of outstanding guaranteed loans. In particular, after Kenya Airways defaulted on its USD 525.0 mn aircraft loan, the debt was novated to the Government, which then settled arrears and repaid Kshs 19.7 billion in FY2024/25, reducing the overall guaranteed debt stock. Below is a graph showing the total publicly guaranteed debt by SOEs over the last five years.

Source: National Treasury
Privatization can help alleviate the financial burden on the government by transferring the responsibility of financing and operating SOEs to the private sector. Government funding for other essential services like healthcare, education, and infrastructure development may be freed up as a result,
Section IV: Progress of SOE Privatization in Kenya
Since 2008, the Privatization Commission has been unable to successfully privatize any state-owned enterprises, owing in part to operational issues such as a lack of a board and external challenges such as legal and stakeholder opposition. Kenya last privatized a state-owned corporation in 2008 with an initial public offering (IPO) of 25.0% of the shares in telecommunications firm Safaricom. In November 2023, following the approval of the Privatization Act 2023 to lead the process, the government was preparing to privatize 35 state-owned firms. The National Treasury and Economic Planning Ministry declared 11 government parastatals slated for privatization. In a public notice issued on 27th November 2023, the exchequer claimed that the proposal was consistent with Section 21(1) of the Privatization Act of 2023, which requires the Treasury Cabinet Secretary to select and designate firms for inclusion in the Privatization Programme. The corporations included:
However, the privatization process for the initial 11 parastatals was temporarily halted by the High Court pending further deliberation. This decision followed a case filed by Mr. Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), asserting that these entities are of strategic national interest and necessitate a referendum for public approval. Additionally, the court's intervention reflects broader concerns regarding the potential impact of privatization on employment and service provision, prompting a reassessment of the privatization strategy's implications for citizens' welfare and economic stability.
In February 2024, Kenya’s Cabinet approved the privatization of seven more state-owned enterprises, expanding the total count of entities slated for privatization to 18. The additional seven that adds up to 18 were:
This decision, ratified during a session chaired by President William Ruto at State House, Nairobi, reflects the government's commitment to harnessing private sector investment for the advancement of crucial sectors. Notably, among the enterprises earmarked for privatization is the Development Bank of Kenya, which has evolved into a fully-fledged commercial bank under the regulatory purview of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK). This move underscores a strategic alignment with the government's agenda to invigorate economic growth and development through private sector participation. In addition to the Development Bank, other entities marked for privatization include Golf Hotel Limited, Sunset Hotel Limited, Mt Elgon Lodge Limited, and Kabarnet Hotel Limited. Furthermore, properties under the Kenya Safari Lodges and Hotels Limited umbrella, specifically Mombasa Beach Hotel, Ngulia Safari Lodge, and Voi Safari Lodge, are also slated for sale. The Cabinet anticipates that privatization will catalyze expansion within the hospitality sector, fostering job creation and bolstering business opportunities. This strategic initiative harmonizes with the ongoing revitalization of the tourism industry, propelled by Kenya’s Visa-Free entry policy. Additionally, the decision to privatize these enterprises followed an earlier proposal by the Kenya Kwanza administration to privatize 11 entities.
The National Treasury announced that it targets to raise Kshs 149.0 bn in FY’2025/26 through the privatization of StateOwned Corporations. Among the headline privatization moves are the planned sale of a 65.0% stake in Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) through an IPO by 31st March 2026 and the offloading of a 15.0% stake in Safaricom.
The Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) is fully owned by the government of Kenya, with 99.9% of the shares held by the National Treasury and 0.1% by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum. The company is responsible for transporting, storing, and distributing petroleum products from the coast (Mombasa) inland to various towns and neighboring countries, using an extensive pipeline network of 1,342 kilometres of pipeline. The government aims to get proceeds of approximately Kshs 100.0 bn from the IPO. It is important to note that KPC has no debt liability guaranteed by the government nor is it a loss‑making SOE, as evidenced by a 52.6% increase in profit after tax to Kshs 6.9 bn in FY’2024 from Kshs 4.5 bn in FY’2023. Additionally, in FY'2024 the total assets for the company came in at Kshs 120.7 bn while the tangible book value was at Kshs 89.0 bn. The privatization of Kenya Pipeline Company through a public share offering is intended to unlock the company’s potential, raise funds for the FY’2025/26 budget, provide access to longterm capital for infrastructure growth and technology upgrades, attract foreign direct investment, job creation, and diversification of investment risk. These outcomes will reduce government bureaucracy, strengthen corporate governance, enhance the company’s capacity to meet rising domestic and regional energy needs, and broaden the government’s revenue base without diminishing private sector wealth.
Safaricom announced on 4th December 2025 that Vodafone Kenya Limited intends to acquire 15.0% of the Government of Kenya’s 35.0% stake in Safaricom PLC, amounting to 6,009,814,200 shares at Kshs 34.0 per share, valued at Kshs 204.3 bn. Additionally, the government will sell its rights to future dividends from the remaining 20.0% stake for an upfront payment of Kshs 40.2 bn, bringing the total value of the transaction to Kshs 244.5 bn. Notably, in FY’2025, the government received dividends worth Kshs 16.8 bn from Safaricom. In the short term, ceding future dividends provides the government with immediate liquidity of Kshs 40.2 bn to meet urgent budgetary needs, fund strategic projects such as infrastructure and the Sovereign Wealth Fund, and reduce reliance on highinterest debt while mitigating risks from market volatility. However, in the long term, this decision forfeits a reliable revenue stream, effectively discounts future earnings, reduces fiscal flexibility, and risks undervaluing Safaricom’s potential growth, leaving future governments without a steady source of dividend income. The offer has attracted public criticism, with concerns that it should have been executed through a public offering and that the sale was undervalued, given Safaricom’s all‑time high of Kshs 44.7 in August 2021. In response, the government has justified the sale to Vodacom by arguing that the general public would likely bid below the current market price and that a local sale could have flooded the market, leading to further dilution of Safaricom’s share price.
Prior to the acquisition, Vodafone Kenya held 39.9% of the shareholding with 16.0 bn shares while the government held 35.0% stake with 14.0 bn shares. Following the acquisition, Vodafone’s shareholding will increase to 54.9% with 22.0 bn shares, while the government’s stake will decline to 20.0% with 8.0 bn shares. The table below shows the top shareholders in Safaricom (ordinary shares only):
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Cytonn Report: Safaricom Plc shareholding structure |
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Before Acquisition |
After acquisition |
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|
Agency |
Number of shares |
% Shareholding |
Number of shares |
% Shareholding |
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1. |
Vodafone Kenya Ltd |
16,000,000,000 |
39.9% |
22,009,814,200 |
54.9% |
|
2. |
CS National Treasury |
14,022,572,580 |
35.0% |
8,012,758,380 |
20.0% |
|
3. |
Others |
10,042,855,420 |
25.1% |
10,042,855,420 |
25.1% |
|
Total |
40,065,428,000 |
100.0% |
40,065,428,000 |
100.0% |
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Source: Safaricom Annual Report
Additionally, since the payment will be made in US dollars, it will boost Kenya’s foreign reserves and further support the stabilization of the Kenyan shilling. The funds from this transaction will serve as the seed capital for both the National Infrastructure Fund and the Sovereign Wealth Fund, providing the initial resources needed to finance large‑scale development projects and strengthen long‑term investment capacity. By channeling proceeds into these strategic funds, the government aims to accelerate infrastructure modernization, diversify revenue streams beyond traditional taxation, and enhance economic resilience against external shocks.
The Government of Kenya’s proposed partial divestiture in Safaricom reflects the growing strength and maturity of the economy and capital markets, while providing an innovative financing mechanism to support priority infrastructure projects without increasing debt or taxation. At this critical turning point, private sector participation is essential to bridge infrastructure gaps, enhance service delivery, and promote sustainable development. The transaction will raise capital at a premium to market value, attract foreign currency inflows, and accelerate economic growth, allowing the government to retain a significant stake and influence in Safaricom. By partnering with Vodafone, one of the world’s leading telecommunications companies, Safaricom will benefit from global best practices and expertise, strengthening its operations in Kenya and Ethiopia.
The trajectory of privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Kenya has been marked by notable challenges and progress since 2008. Despite the Privatization Commission's previous inability to effectively privatize any SOEs due to operational issues and external opposition, the approval of the Privatization Act 2025 signified a renewed commitment to the process. While the initial privatization efforts faced legal hurdle, recent developments, including the progress with the Safaricom and Kenya Pipeline Company privatizations, underscore the government's determination to leverage private sector investment for economic advancement. As Kenya navigates the complexities of privatization, careful consideration of stakeholder interests and economic implications remains paramount to ensure sustainable progress and inclusive development in the years ahead.
Section V: Recommendations and Conclusion
In our analysis, we have identified several key recommendations aimed at enhancing the effectiveness and transparency of Kenya's privatization efforts. These include:
Privatization of state-owned enterprises is a critical policy tool for Kenya, not only to ease fiscal pressures by reducing debt and budget deficits, but also to stimulate economic growth through private sector investment. Strategic divestitures deepen capital markets, attract foreign inflows, and enable the government to realize optimal value from mature assets while avoiding future dilution risks. By leveraging private sector efficiency and global expertise, privatization supports infrastructure financing, strengthens Kenya’s competitiveness as an investment hub, and safeguards the long-term growth of enterprises like Safaricom. To maximize these benefits, privatization must be pursued transparently, guided by clear objectives, and aligned with national development priorities. Kenya's endeavour to privatize its loss-making State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) holds promise for fostering economic growth and development, but it necessitates meticulous planning and execution to circumvent the pitfalls witnessed in similar processes elsewhere. Additionally, if Kenya successfully addresses the challenges of integrity and governance culture, the Privatization Authority’s mandate should be broadened to include regular reviews of privatized enterprises and, based on those assessments, determine whether targets and goals have been achieved, identify challenges, and provide guidance for subsequent privatizations. Transparency, capacity building, and safeguarding the public interest are crucial elements. We expect the government to be able to expedite the privatization process and easily offload the non-strategic SOEs that continue to burden public expenditure. We also expect the move to spur new listings at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), which will increase activity and diversify the bourse’s offerings which will subsequently attract foreign investors.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the writers where particulars are not warranted. This publication, which is in compliance with Section 2 of the Capital Markets Authority Act Cap 485A, is meant for general information only and is not a warranty, representation, advice or solicitation of any nature. Readers are advised in all circumstances to seek the advice of a registered investment advisor.