By Research Team, Mar 23, 2025
During the week, T-bills were oversubscribed for the seventh consecutive week, with the overall subscription rate coming in at 129.0%, higher than the subscription rate of 122.7% recorded the previous week. Investors’ preference for the shorter 91-day paper waned, with the paper receiving bids worth Kshs 1.7 bn against the offered Kshs 4.0 bn, translating to an undersubscription rate of 43.2%, from the oversubscription rate of 188.1% recorded the previous week. The subscription rates for the 182-day paper decreased to 84.0% from the 98.0% recorded the previous week while the 364-day paper increased to 208.2% from the 121.1% recorded the previous week. The government accepted a total of Kshs 24.5 bn worth of bids out of Kshs 31.0 bn bids received, translating to an acceptance rate of 79.0%. The yields on the government papers were on a downward trajectory with the yields on the 91-day paper decreasing the most by 7.8 bps to 8.8% from 8.9% recorded the previous week. The yields on the 182-day and 364-day papers decreased by 2.9 bps and 1.2 bps to remain relatively unchanged from 9.1% and 10.5% respectively recorded the previous week;
During the week, the National Treasury gazetted the revenue and net expenditures for the eighth month of FY’2024/2025, ending 28th February 2025, highlighting that the total revenue collected as at the end of February 2025 amounted to Kshs 1,403.7 bn, equivalent to 56.7% of the revised estimates of Kshs 2,475.1 bn for FY’2024/2025 and is 85.1% of the prorated estimates of Kshs 1,650.0 bn.
During the week, the equities market was on an upward trajectory, with NASI gaining the most by 0.5%, while NSE 20, NSE 25 and NSE 10 gained by 0.4%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, taking the YTD performance to gains of 9.1%, 3.9%, 2.2% and 0.6% for NSE 20, NASI, NSE 25 and NSE 10, respectively. The equities market performance was driven by gains recorded by large-cap stocks such as Standard Chartered, Cooperative Bank and NCBA of 12.3%, 6.0%, and 1.0%, respectively. The performance was however weighed down by losses recorded by large cap stocks such as Equity bank, Absa Bank and KCB group of 2.0%, 1.3% and 0.4% respectively;
During the week Standard Chartered Bank Kenya released its FY’2024 financial results, Standard Chartered Bank Kenya’s Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 45.0% to Kshs 20.1 bn, from Kshs 13.8 bn in FY’2023. The performance was mainly driven by a 21.4% increase in total operating income to Kshs 50.7 bn, from Kshs 41.7 bn in FY’2023, which outpaced the 1.9% increase in total operating expense to Kshs 22.5 bn in FY’2024, from Kshs 22.1 bn in FY’2023.
During the week Co-operative Bank released its FY’2024 financial results, Cooperative Bank Kenya’s Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 9.8% to Kshs 25.5 bn, from Kshs 23.2 bn in FY’2023. The performance was mainly driven by a 12.5% increase in total operating income to Kshs 80.6 bn, from Kshs 71.7 bn in FY’2023, which was however weighed down by the 17.7% increase in total operating expense to Kshs 46.7 bn in FY’2024, from Kshs 39.7 bn in FY’2023.
During the week Absa Bank Kenya released its FY’2024 financial results, Absa Bank Kenya’s Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 27.5% to Kshs 20.9 bn, from Kshs 16.4 bn in FY’2023. The performance was mainly driven by a 14.2% increase in total operating income to Kshs 62.3 bn, from Kshs 54.6 bn in FY’2023, which outpaced the 5.5% increase in total operating expense to Kshs 32.6 bn in FY’2024, from Kshs 30.9 bn in FY’2023.
During the week, Radisson Blu Arboretum Hotel in Nairobi announced a Kshs 1.4 bn renovation plan to upgrade its facilities and enhance guest experiences. The refurbishment will focus on modernizing guest rooms, meeting spaces, dining areas, and recreational facilities to align with contemporary hospitality standards. This initiative underscores Radisson Hotel Group's commitment to maintaining its competitive edge in Nairobi's burgeoning hospitality sector.
During the week, Centum Real Estate, a subsidiary of Centum Investment Company, signed a deal with Pan-African developer ARISE to jointly establish a Kshs 388.2 bn industrial park within the Vipingo Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in kilifi town starting within the next quarter. The development will sit on a 2,000-acre Vipingo SEZ land and the business park will have manufacturing and logistic hubs potentially creating 500,000 jobs.
On the Unquoted Securities Platform, Acorn D-REIT and I-REIT traded at Kshs 25.4 and Kshs 22.2 per unit, respectively, as per the last updated data on 14th March 2025. The performance represented a 27.0% and 11.0% gain for the D-REIT and I-REIT, respectively, from the Kshs 20.0 inception price. Additionally, ILAM Fahari I-REIT traded at Kshs 11.0 per share as of 14th March 2025, representing a 45.0% loss from the Kshs 20.0 inception price;
National Social Security schemes are created by governments to form the first pillar of social security. In Africa, Kenya was the second country after Ghana to form a national security scheme, The National Social Security Fund (NSSF), done in 1965 through an Act of Parliament (Cap 258). In recent years, discussions around the growth and reform of the NSSF have gained momentum, with key considerations on how to increase coverage, especially for the informal sector, and improve service delivery. The fund has also faced a number of challenges in recent years, with concerns about mismanagement, corruption, and inefficiencies often overshadowing the fund’s broader mission and leading to a decline in public confidence. As such, this week we turn our focus to the Kenyan National Social Security Fund to shed light on its latest financial results, recent developments and what needs to be done improve efficiency;
Investment Updates:
Hospitality Updates:
Money Markets, T-Bills Primary Auction:
During the week, T-bills were oversubscribed for the seventh consecutive week, with the overall subscription rate coming in at 129.0%, higher than the subscription rate of 122.7% recorded the previous week. Investors’ preference for the shorter 91-day paper waned, with the paper receiving bids worth Kshs 1.7 bn against the offered Kshs 4.0 bn, translating to an undersubscription rate of 43.2%, from the oversubscription rate of 188.1% recorded the previous week. The subscription rates for the 182-day paper decreased to 84.0% from the 98.0% recorded the previous week while the 364-day paper increased to 208.2% from the 121.1% recorded the previous week. The government accepted a total of Kshs 24.5 bn worth of bids out of Kshs 31.0 bn bids received, translating to an acceptance rate of 79.0%. The yields on the government papers were on a downward trajectory with the yields on the 91-day paper decreasing the most by 7.8 bps to 8.8% from 8.9% recorded the previous week. The yields on the 182-day and 364-day papers decreased by 2.9 bps and 1.2 bps to remain relatively unchanged from 9.1% and 10.5%, respectively, recorded the previous week.
The charts below show the yield performance of the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day papers from March 2024 to March 2025:
The chart below shows the yield growth for the 91-day T-bill:
The chart below compares the overall average T-bill subscription rates obtained in 2022,2023, 2024 and 2025 Year-to-date (YTD):
Money Market Performance:
In the money markets, 3-month bank placements ended the week at 11.1% (based on what we have been offered by various banks), and the yields on the government papers were on a downward trajectory with the yields on the 91-day paper decreasing by 7.8 bps to 8.8% from the 8.9% recorded the previous week while the 364-day paper decreased by 1.2 bps to remain relatively unchanged from the 10.5% recorded the previous week. The yield on the Cytonn Money Market Fund decreased by 12.0 bps to 15.6% from the 15.7% recorded the previous week, while the average yields on the Top 5 Money Market Funds decreased by 10.6 bps to close the week at 14.8%, from the 14.9% recorded the previous week.
The table below shows the Money Market Fund Yields for Kenyan Fund Managers as published on 21st March 2025:
Cytonn Report: Money Market Fund Yield for Fund Managers as published on 21stMarch 2025 |
||
Rank |
Fund Manager |
Effective Annual Rate |
1 |
Gulfcap Money Market Fund |
16.3% |
2 |
Cytonn Money Market Fund (Dial *809# or download the Cytonn app) |
15.6% |
3 |
Kuza Money Market fund |
14.2% |
4 |
Etica Money Market Fund |
14.1% |
5 |
Lofty-Corban Money Market Fund |
14.0% |
6 |
Arvocap Money Market Fund |
14.0% |
7 |
Ndovu Money Market Fund |
13.1% |
8 |
Enwealth Money Market Fund |
12.9% |
9 |
Orient Kasha Money Market Fund |
12.7% |
10 |
Old Mutual Money Market Fund |
12.5% |
11 |
British-American Money Market Fund |
12.5% |
12 |
Apollo Money Market Fund |
12.4% |
13 |
Dry Associates Money Market Fund |
12.3% |
14 |
GenAfrica Money Market Fund |
12.2% |
15 |
Madison Money Market Fund |
12.0% |
16 |
Sanlam Money Market Fund |
11.9% |
17 |
Genghis Money Market Fund |
11.9% |
18 |
Nabo Africa Money Market Fund |
11.8% |
19 |
Faulu Money Market Fund |
11.7% |
20 |
Jubilee Money Market Fund |
11.7% |
21 |
Co-op Money Market Fund |
11.5% |
22 |
ICEA Lion Money Market Fund |
11.3% |
23 |
CIC Money Market Fund |
11.2% |
24 |
Mali Money Market Fund |
11.1% |
25 |
KCB Money Market Fund |
11.0% |
26 |
Absa Shilling Money Market Fund |
10.7% |
27 |
AA Kenya Shillings Fund |
10.7% |
28 |
Mayfair Money Market Fund |
9.7% |
29 |
Stanbic Money Market Fund |
8.8% |
30 |
Ziidi Money Market Fund |
7.6% |
31 |
Equity Money Market Fund |
5.8% |
Source: Business Daily
Liquidity:
During the week, liquidity in the money markets marginally tightened, with the average interbank rate increasing by 1.3 bps, to remain unchanged from the 10.7% recorded the previous week, partly attributable government payments that were offset by tax remittances. The average interbank volumes traded decreased by 60.4% to Kshs 8.7 bn from Kshs 21.8 bn recorded the previous week. The chart below shows the interbank rates in the market over the years:
Kenya Eurobonds:
During the week, the yields on Kenya’s Eurobonds recorded a mixed performance, with the yield on the13-year issued in 2021 increasing the most by 0.2% to 10.3% from the 10.1% recorded the previous week, while the 7-year Eurobond issued in 2024 decreased the most by 0.2% to 9.7% from the 9.9% recorded the previous week. The table below shows the summary performance of the Kenyan Eurobonds as of 20th March 2025;
Cytonn Report: Kenya Eurobonds Performance |
|
||||||
|
2018 |
2019 |
2021 |
2024 |
2025 |
||
Tenor |
10-year issue |
30-year issue |
7-year issue |
12-year issue |
13-year issue |
7-year issue |
11-year issue |
Amount Issued (USD) |
1.0 bn |
1.0 bn |
0.3 bn |
1.2 bn |
1.0 bn |
1.5 bn |
1.5 bn |
Years to Maturity |
3.0 |
23.0 |
2.2 |
7.2 |
9.3 |
5.9 |
11.0 |
Yields at Issue |
7.3% |
8.3% |
7.0% |
7.9% |
6.2% |
10.4% |
9.9% |
02-Jan-25 |
9.1% |
10.3% |
8.5% |
10.1% |
10.1% |
10.1% |
|
03-Mar-25 |
8.0% |
10.0% |
7.3% |
9.5% |
9.6% |
9.4% |
|
13-Mar-25 |
8.5% |
10.4% |
7.3% |
10.0% |
10.1% |
9.9% |
|
14-Mar-25 |
8.5% |
10.4% |
7.3% |
9.9% |
10.4% |
9.9% |
|
17-Mar-25 |
8.5% |
10.5% |
7.4% |
10.1% |
10.5% |
10.1% |
|
18-Mar-25 |
8.7% |
10.4% |
7.3% |
9.9% |
10.4% |
9.9% |
|
19-Mar-25 |
8.5% |
10.3% |
7.3% |
9.9% |
10.3% |
9.9% |
|
20-Mar-25 |
8.5% |
10.3% |
7.2% |
9.8% |
10.3% |
9.7% |
|
Weekly Change |
0.0% |
(0.1%) |
(0.1%) |
(0.2%) |
0.2% |
(0.2%) |
- |
MTD Change |
0.5% |
0.2% |
(0.1%) |
0.3% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
- |
YTD Change |
(0.5%) |
(0.0%) |
(1.3%) |
(0.3%) |
0.2% |
(0.4%) |
- |
Source: Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) and National Treasury
Kenya Shilling:
During the week, the Kenyan Shilling appreciated marginally against the US Dollar by 8.6 bps, to Kshs 129.4 from the Kshs 129.5 recorded the previous week. On a year-to-date basis, the shilling has depreciated by 6.8 bps against the dollar, compared to the 17.4% appreciation recorded in 2024.
We expect the shilling to be supported by:
The shilling is however expected to remain under pressure in 2025 as a result of:
Key to note, Kenya’s forex reserves decreased by 0.5% during the week, to USD 10.0 bn from the USD 10.1 bn recorded in the previous week, equivalent to 5.1 months of import cover to remain relatively unchanged from the months of import cover recorded last week, and above the statutory requirement of maintaining at least 4.0-months of import cover.
The chart below summarizes the evolution of Kenya's months of import cover over the years:
Weekly Highlights
During the week, the National Treasury gazetted the revenue and net expenditures for the eighth month of FY’2024/2025, ending 28th February 2025, highlighting that the total revenue collected as at the end of February 2025 amounted to Kshs 1,403.7 bn, equivalent to 56.7% of the revised estimates of Kshs 2,475.1 bn for FY’2024/2025 and is 85.1% of the prorated estimates of Kshs 1,650.0 bn. Below is a summary of the performance:
FY'2024/2025 Budget Outturn - As at 28th February 2025 |
||||||
Amounts in Kshs Billions unless stated otherwise |
||||||
Item |
12-months Original Estimates |
Revised Estimates |
Actual Receipts/Release |
Percentage Achieved of the Revised Estimates |
Prorated |
% achieved of the Prorated |
Opening Balance |
|
|
1.2 |
|
|
|
Tax Revenue |
2,745.2 |
2,475.1 |
1,403.7 |
56.7% |
1,650.0 |
85.1% |
Non-Tax Revenue |
172.0 |
156.4 |
113.5 |
72.6% |
104.2 |
108.9% |
Total Revenue |
2,917.2 |
2,631.4 |
1,518.3 |
57.7% |
1,754.3 |
86.6% |
External Loans & Grants |
571.2 |
593.5 |
120.5 |
20.3% |
395.7 |
30.5% |
Domestic Borrowings |
828.4 |
978.3 |
675.1 |
69.0% |
652.2 |
103.5% |
Other Domestic Financing |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.4 |
94.8% |
3.1 |
142.2% |
Total Financing |
1,404.3 |
1,576.5 |
800.0 |
50.7% |
1,051.0 |
76.1% |
Recurrent Exchequer issues |
1,348.4 |
1,307.9 |
859.8 |
65.7% |
872.0 |
98.6% |
CFS Exchequer Issues |
2,114.1 |
2,137.8 |
1,059.2 |
49.5% |
1,425.2 |
74.3% |
Development Expenditure & Net Lending |
458.9 |
351.3 |
156.1 |
44.4% |
234.2 |
66.7% |
County Governments + Contingencies |
400.1 |
410.8 |
240.9 |
58.6% |
273.9 |
88.0% |
Total Expenditure |
4,321.5 |
4,207.9 |
2,316.1 |
55.0% |
2,805.3 |
82.6% |
Fiscal Deficit excluding Grants |
1,404.3 |
1,576.5 |
797.7 |
50.6% |
1,051.0 |
75.9% |
Total Borrowing |
1,399.6 |
1,571.8 |
795.6 |
50.6% |
1,047.9 |
75.9% |
Amounts in Kshs bn unless stated otherwise
The Key take-outs from the release include;
The government missed its prorated revenue targets for the eighth consecutive month in FY’2024/2025, achieving only 85.1% of the revenue targets in February 2025. This shortfall is largely due to the challenging business environment experienced in previous months, exacerbated by high taxes and an elevated cost of living. Despite an improvement in the business climate, inflationary pressures persist, with year-on-year inflation for February 2025 rising by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, up from 3.3% in January 2025. However, the cost of credit has declined, providing some relief to businesses and households. The improved business environment is reflected in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which increased marginally to 50.6 in February from 50.5 in January 2025. While efforts to enhance revenue collection, such as broadening the tax base, curbing tax evasion, and suspending tax relief payments, are yet to yield full benefits, future revenue performance will depend on how quickly private sector activity gains momentum. This is expected to be supported by a stable Shilling, lower borrowing costs, and continued efforts to enhance economic growth. The reduction in the Central Bank Rate (CBR) by 50 basis points to 10.75% from 11.25%, following the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) meeting on February 5th, 2025, is expected to further ease credit conditions and support private sector expansion.
Rates in the Fixed Income market have been on a downward trend due to high liquidity in the money markets, enabling the government to front load most of its borrowing. The government is 70.7% ahead of its prorated net domestic borrowing target of Kshs 433.9 bn, and 24.8% ahead of the total FY’2024/25 net domestic borrowing target of Kshs 593.7 bn, having a net borrowing position of Kshs 740.7 bn (inclusive of T-bills). However, we expect a continued downward readjustment of the yield curve in the short and medium term, with the government looking to increase its external borrowing to maintain the fiscal surplus, hence alleviating pressure in the domestic market. As such, we expect the yield curve to stabilize in the short to medium-term and hence investors are expected to shift towards the long-term papers to lock in the high returns
Market Performance
During the week, the equities market was on an upward trajectory, with NASI gaining the most by 0.5%, while NSE 20, NSE 25 and NSE 10 gained by 0.4%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, taking the YTD performance to gains of 9.1%, 3.9%, 2.2% and 0.6% for NSE 20, NASI, NSE 25 and NSE 10, respectively. The equities market performance was driven by gains recorded by large-cap stocks such as Standard Chartered, Cooperative Bank and NCBA of 12.3%, 6.0%, and 1.0% respectively, the performance was however weighed down by losses recorded by large cap stocks such as Equity bank, Absa Bank and KCB group of 2.0%, 1.3% and 0.4% respectively;
During the week, equities turnover increased by 14.0% to USD 17.7 mn, from USD 15.5 mn recorded the previous week, taking the YTD total turnover to USD 192.4 mn. Foreign investors remained net sellers for the fourth consecutive week, with a net selling position of USD 1.2 mn, from a net selling position of USD 0.6 mn recorded the previous week, taking the YTD foreign net selling position to USD 24.5 mn, compared to a net selling position of USD 16.9 mn in 2024,
The market is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 5.7x, 50.9% below the historical average of 11.6x. The dividend yield stands at 7.4%, 2.8% points above the historical average of 4.6%. Key to note, NASI’s PEG ratio currently stands at 0.7x, an indication that the market is undervalued relative to its future growth. A PEG ratio greater than 1.0x indicates the market is overvalued while a PEG ratio less than 1.0x indicates that the market is undervalued. The charts below indicate the historical P/E and dividend yields of the market;
Universe of Coverage:
Cytonn Report: Equities Universe of Coverage |
||||||||||
Company |
Price as at 14/03/2025 |
Price as at 21/03/2025 |
w/w change |
YTD Change |
Year Open 2025 |
Target Price* |
Dividend Yield |
Upside/ Downside** |
P/TBv Multiple |
Recommendation |
Equity Group*** |
47.6 |
46.7 |
(2.0%) |
(2.8%) |
48.0 |
60.2 |
8.6% |
37.6% |
0.9x |
Buy |
ABSA Bank |
19.1 |
18.8 |
(1.3%) |
(0.3%) |
18.9 |
24.2 |
8.2% |
37.0% |
1.5x |
Buy |
Co-op Bank |
15.1 |
16.0 |
6.0% |
(8.6%) |
17.5 |
20.3 |
9.4% |
36.6% |
0.7x |
Buy |
Jubilee Holdings*** |
225.3 |
216.3 |
(4.0%) |
23.7% |
174.8 |
260.7 |
6.6% |
27.1% |
0.3x |
Buy |
KCB Group |
42.2 |
42.0 |
(0.4%) |
(0.9%) |
42.4 |
50.4 |
7.1% |
27.1% |
0.6x |
Buy |
Stanbic Holdings |
160.5 |
160.0 |
(0.3%) |
14.5% |
139.8 |
171.2 |
13.0% |
20.0% |
1.0x |
Accumulate |
Standard Chartered Bank |
270.8 |
304.0 |
12.3% |
6.6% |
285.3 |
328.6 |
9.5% |
17.6% |
2.0x |
Accumulate |
CIC Group*** |
2.9 |
2.9 |
(2.4%) |
33.2% |
2.1 |
3.1 |
4.6% |
13.3% |
0.9x |
Accumulate |
NCBA*** |
51.8 |
52.3 |
1.0% |
2.5% |
51.0 |
53.2 |
9.1% |
10.9% |
1.0x |
Accumulate |
Diamond Trust Bank*** |
79.3 |
79.8 |
0.6% |
19.5% |
66.8 |
78.1 |
6.3% |
4.2% |
0.3x |
Lighten |
I&M Group*** |
35.1 |
35.0 |
(0.3%) |
(2.9%) |
36.0 |
32.3 |
7.3% |
(0.3%) |
0.7x |
Sell |
Britam*** |
7.7 |
7.7 |
(1.5%) |
31.6% |
5.8 |
7.5 |
0.0% |
(2.1%) |
1.1x |
Sell |
*Target Price as per Cytonn Analyst estimates **Upside/ (Downside) is adjusted for Dividend Yield ***Dividend Yield is calculated using FY’2023 Dividends |
Weekly Highlights
During the week, Standard Chartered Kenya released their FY’2024 financial results. Below is a summary of the performance
Balance Sheet Items |
FY’2023 |
FY’2024 |
y/y change |
Net loans |
163.2 |
151.6 |
(7.1%) |
Government Securities |
69.6 |
93.7 |
34.7% |
Total Assets |
429.0 |
384.6 |
(10.3%) |
Customer Deposits |
342.9 |
295.7 |
(13.8%) |
Deposits per Branch |
9.5 |
9.2 |
(3.0%) |
Total Liabilities |
367.4 |
312.8 |
(14.9%) |
Shareholder's Funds |
61.5 |
71.8 |
16.6% |
Balance Sheet Ratios |
FY’2023 |
FY’2024 |
% points change |
Loan to deposit ratio |
47.6% |
51.3% |
3.7% |
Government securities to deposit ratio |
20.3% |
31.7% |
11.4% |
Return on Average Equity |
23.5% |
30.1% |
6.6% |
Return on Average Assets |
3.4% |
4.9% |
1.5% |
Income Statement |
FY’2023 |
FY’2024 |
y/y change |
Net Interest Income |
29.3 |
33.3 |
13.4% |
Net non-Interest Income |
12.4 |
17.4 |
40.4% |
Total Operating income |
41.7 |
50.7 |
21.4% |
Loan Loss provision |
3.4 |
2.4 |
(29.6%) |
Total Operating expenses |
22.1 |
22.5 |
1.9% |
Profit before tax |
19.7 |
28.2 |
43.4% |
Profit after tax |
13.8 |
20.1 |
45.0% |
Core EPS (Kshs) |
36.6 |
53.1 |
45.0% |
Dividend Per Share (Kshs) |
29.0 |
45.0 |
55.2% |
Dividend Yield |
15.6% |
14.8% |
(5.2%) |
Dividend Payout Ratio |
79.2% |
84.8% |
7.0% |
Income Statement Ratios |
FY’2023 |
FY’2024 |
% points change |
Yield from interest-earning assets |
9.1% |
11.2% |
2.0% |
Cost of funding |
1.0% |
1.7% |
0.7% |
Net Interest Spread |
8.2% |
9.5% |
1.3% |
Net Interest Margin |
8.3% |
9.6% |
1.3% |
Cost of Risk |
8.1% |
4.7% |
(3.4%) |
Net Interest Income as % of operating income |
70.3% |
65.6% |
(4.6%) |
Non-Funded Income as a % of operating income |
29.7% |
34.4% |
4.6% |
Cost to Income Ratio |
52.9% |
44.3% |
(8.5%) |
Cost to Income Ratio without LLP |
44.8% |
39.6% |
(5.1%) |
Capital Adequacy Ratios |
FY’2023 |
FY’2024 |
% points change |
Core Capital/Total Liabilities |
14.9% |
18.3% |
3.4% |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
8.0% |
8.0% |
|
Excess |
6.9% |
10.3% |
3.4% |
Core Capital/Total Risk Weighted Assets |
17.8% |
19.5% |
1.7% |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
10.5% |
10.5% |
0.0% |
Excess |
7.3% |
9.0% |
1.7% |
Total Capital/Total Risk Weighted Assets |
17.8% |
19.6% |
1.7% |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
14.5% |
14.5% |
|
Excess |
3.3% |
5.1% |
1.7% |
Liquidity Ratio |
66.3% |
67.6% |
1.3% |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
20.0% |
20.0% |
|
Excess |
46.3% |
47.6% |
1.3% |
Key Take-Outs:
For a more detailed analysis, please see the Standard Chartered Banks ’s FY’2024 Earnings Note
During the week, Co-operative bank released their FY’2024 financial results. Below is a summary of the performance
Balance Sheet Items |
FY'2023 |
FY'2024 |
y/y change |
Government Securities |
189.0 |
217.6 |
15.1% |
Net Loans and Advances |
374.2 |
373.7 |
(0.1%) |
Total Assets |
671.1 |
743.2 |
10.7% |
Customer Deposits |
451.6 |
506.1 |
12.1% |
Deposits per branch |
2.4 |
2.5 |
3.3% |
Total Liabilities |
557.5 |
597.6 |
7.2% |
Shareholders’ Funds |
113.6 |
145.4 |
28.0% |
Balance Sheet Ratios |
FY'2023 |
FY'2024 |
y/y change |
Loan to Deposit Ratio |
82.9% |
73.8% |
(9.0%) |
Government Securities to Deposits Ratio |
41.9% |
43.0% |
1.1% |
Return on average equity |
21.0% |
19.7% |
(1.3%) |
Return on average assets |
3.6% |
3.6% |
(0.0%) |
Income Statement |
FY'2023 |
FY'2024 |
y/y change |
Net Interest Income |
45.2 |
51.5 |
13.9% |
Non-Interest Income |
26.5 |
29.1 |
10.1% |
Total Operating income |
71.7 |
80.6 |
12.5% |
Loan Loss provision |
(6.0) |
(8.7) |
44.2% |
Total Operating expenses |
(39.7) |
(46.7) |
17.7% |
Profit before tax |
32.4 |
34.8 |
7.5% |
Profit after tax |
23.2 |
25.5 |
9.8% |
Core EPS |
4.0 |
4.3 |
9.8% |
Dividend per Share |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.0% |
Dividend Payout Ratio |
38.3% |
34.6% |
(9.5%) |
Dividend Yield |
13.3% |
9.4% |
(29.2%) |
Income Statement Ratios |
FY'2023 |
FY'2024 |
Y/Y Change |
Yield from interest-earning assets |
12.4% |
13.9% |
1.5% |
Cost of funding |
4.8% |
6.4% |
1.6% |
Net Interest Spread |
7.6% |
7.6% |
(0.1%) |
Net Interest Income as % of operating income |
63.1% |
63.9% |
0.8% |
Non-Funded Income as a % of operating income |
36.9% |
36.1% |
(0.8%) |
Cost to Income |
55.3% |
57.9% |
2.6% |
CIR without provisions |
47.0% |
47.2% |
0.2% |
Cost to Assets |
5.0% |
5.1% |
0.1% |
Net Interest Margin |
8.1% |
8.3% |
0.2% |
Capital Adequacy Ratios |
FY'2023 |
FY'2024 |
% points change |
Core Capital/Total deposit Liabilities |
23.4% |
24.2% |
0.8% |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
8.0% |
8.0% |
|
Excess |
15.4% |
16.2% |
0.8% |
Core Capital/Total Risk Weighted Assets |
18.2% |
18.3% |
0.1% |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
10.5% |
10.5% |
|
Excess |
7.7% |
7.8% |
0.1% |
Total Capital/Total Risk Weighted Assets |
22.5% |
21.2% |
(1.3%) |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
14.5% |
14.5% |
|
Excess |
8.0% |
6.7% |
(1.3%) |
Liquidity Ratio |
52.0% |
59.9% |
7.9% |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
20.0% |
20.0% |
|
Excess |
32.0% |
39.9% |
7.9% |
Key Take-Outs:
For a more detailed analysis, please see the Co-operative Bank’s FY’2024 Earnings Note
During the week, Absa Bank Kenya released their FY’2024 financial results. Below is a summary of the performance
Balance Sheet Items |
FY’2023 |
FY’2024 |
y/y change |
Government Securities |
95.2 |
130.6 |
37.2% |
Net Loans and Advances |
335.7 |
309.1 |
(7.9%) |
Total Assets |
519.8 |
506.5 |
(2.6%) |
Customer Deposits |
362.7 |
367.1 |
1.2% |
Deposit per Branch |
4.8 |
4.3 |
(9.5%) |
Total Liabilities |
450.6 |
421.3 |
(6.5%) |
Shareholder's Funds |
69.2 |
85.2 |
23.1% |
Balance Sheet Ratios |
FY’2023 |
FY’2024 |
% points change |
Loan to Deposit Ratio |
92.5% |
84.2% |
(8.4%) |
Govt Securities to Deposit ratio |
26.2% |
35.6% |
9.3% |
Return on average equity |
24.6% |
27.0% |
2.4% |
Return on average assets |
3.3% |
4.1% |
0.8% |
Income Statement |
FY’2023 |
FY’2024 |
y/y change |
Net Interest Income |
40.0 |
46.2 |
15.4% |
Net non-Interest Income |
14.5 |
16.1 |
10.8% |
Total Operating income |
54.6 |
62.3 |
14.2% |
Loan Loss provision |
(9.2) |
(9.1) |
(1.6%) |
Total Operating expenses |
(30.9) |
(32.6) |
5.5% |
Profit before tax |
23.7 |
29.7 |
25.5% |
Profit after tax |
16.4 |
20.9 |
27.5% |
Core EPS |
3.0 |
3.8 |
27.5% |
Dividend per Share |
1.55 |
1.75 |
12.9% |
Dividend Yield |
11.3% |
9.3% |
(17.4%) |
Dividend Payout Ratio |
51.4% |
45.5% |
(11.5%) |
Income Statement Ratios |
FY’2023 |
FY’2024 |
% points change |
Yield from interest-earning assets |
12.7% |
14.6% |
1.9% |
Cost of funding |
4.1% |
4.8% |
0.7% |
Net Interest Spread |
3.8% |
4.9% |
1.1% |
Net Interest Margin |
9.4% |
10.4% |
1.0% |
Cost of Risk |
16.9% |
14.6% |
(2.3%) |
Net Interest Income as % of operating income |
73.4% |
74.2% |
0.8% |
Non-Funded Income as a % of operating income |
26.6% |
25.8% |
(0.8%) |
Cost to Income |
56.6% |
52.3% |
(4.3%) |
Cost to Income (Without LLPs) |
39.7% |
37.7% |
(2.0%) |
Capital Adequacy Ratios |
FY’2023 |
FY’2024 |
% points change |
Core Capital/Total Liabilities |
16.7% |
19.9% |
3.2% |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
8.0% |
8.0% |
0.0% |
Excess |
8.7% |
11.9% |
3.2% |
Core Capital/Total Risk Weighted Assets |
13.6% |
17.0% |
3.4% |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
10.5% |
10.5% |
0.0% |
Excess |
3.1% |
6.5% |
3.4% |
Total Capital/Total Risk Weighted Assets |
18.1% |
20.7% |
2.6% |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
14.5% |
14.5% |
0.0% |
Excess |
3.6% |
6.2% |
2.6% |
Liquidity Ratio |
31.1% |
42.5% |
11.4% |
Minimum Statutory ratio |
20.0% |
20.0% |
0.0% |
Excess |
11.1% |
22.5% |
11.4% |
Key Take-Outs:
For a more detailed analysis, please see the Absa Bank’s FY’2024 Earnings Note
Asset Quality:
The table below shows the asset quality of listed banks that have released their FY’2024 results using several metrics:
Cytonn Report: Listed Banks Asset Quality in FY’2024 |
||||||
|
FY'2024 NPL Ratio* |
FY'2023 NPL Ratio** |
% point change in NPL Ratio |
FY'2024 NPL Coverage* |
FY’2023 NPL Coverage** |
% point change in NPL Coverage |
Stanbic Bank |
9.1% |
9.5% |
(0.4%) |
78.4% |
70.4% |
8.0% |
KCB Group |
19.8% |
17.0% |
2.8% |
65.1% |
62.5% |
2.6% |
Standard Chartered Bank |
7.4% |
9.7% |
(2.3%) |
81.8% |
81.6% |
0.3% |
Co-operative Bank of Kenya |
17.0% |
16.2% |
0.7% |
63.9% |
57.2% |
6.8% |
Absa Bank Kenya |
12.6% |
9.9% |
2.7% |
66.0% |
65.6% |
0.4% |
Mkt Weighted Average* |
13.7% |
13.1% |
0.6% |
70.5% |
62.0% |
8.5% |
*Market cap weighted as at 14/03/2025 |
||||||
**Market cap weighted as at 18/04/2024 |
Key take-outs from the table include;
Summary Performance
The table below shows the performance of listed banks that have released their FY’2024 results using several metrics:
Cytonn Report: Listed Banks Performance in FY’2024 |
||||||||||||||
Bank |
Core EPS Growth |
Interest Income Growth |
Interest Expense Growth |
Net Interest Income Growth |
Net Interest Margin |
Non-Funded Income Growth |
NFI to Total Operating Income |
Growth in Total Fees & Commissions |
Deposit Growth |
Growth in Government Securities |
Loan to Deposit Ratio |
Loan Growth |
Return on Average Equity |
|
KCB Group |
64.9% |
26.9% |
25.0% |
28.0% |
7.8% |
16.6% |
33.0% |
0.9% |
(18.3%) |
(13.2%) |
71.7% |
(9.6%) |
24.6% |
|
Standard Chartered Bank |
45.0% |
20.0% |
83.4% |
13.4% |
9.6% |
40.4% |
34.4% |
11.9% |
(13.8%) |
34.7% |
51.3% |
(7.1%) |
30.1% |
|
Absa Bank Kenya |
27.5% |
15.4% |
30.1% |
15.4% |
10.5% |
10.8% |
25.8% |
27.5% |
1.2% |
30.0% |
84.2% |
(7.9%) |
27.0% |
|
Stanbic Holdings |
12 .8% |
37.8% |
105.7% |
(5.1%) |
5.9% |
(1.7%) |
38.8% |
(13.1%) |
(2.8%) |
70.6% |
71.6% |
(11.6%) |
19.1% |
|
Co-operative Bank of Kenya |
9.8% |
24.9% |
45.7% |
13.9% |
8.4% |
24.5% |
36.1% |
3.2% |
12.1% |
15.1% |
73.8% |
(0.1%) |
19.7% |
|
FY'24 Mkt Weighted Average* |
36.3% |
24.0% |
53.1% |
15.5% |
8.6% |
20.0% |
33.2% |
7.4% |
(5.9%) |
21.9% |
69.9% |
(7.2%) |
24.7% |
|
FY'23 Mkt Weighted Average** |
11.4% |
30.5% |
52.4% |
20.6% |
7.5% |
16.4% |
37.0% |
25.0% |
2.2% |
69.0% |
21.2% |
9.5% |
38.3% |
|
*Market cap weighted as at 14/03/2025 |
||||||||||||||
**Market cap weighted as at 18/04/2024 |
Key take-outs from the table include:
We are “Bullish” on the Equities markets in the short term due to current cheap valuations, lower yields on short-term government papers and expected global and local economic recovery, and, “Neutral” in the long term due to persistent foreign investor outflows. With the market currently trading at a discount to its future growth (PEG Ratio at 0.7x), we believe that investors should reposition towards value stocks with strong earnings growth and that are trading at discounts to their intrinsic value. We expect the current high foreign investors sell-offs to continue weighing down the economic outlook in the short term.
During the week, Radisson Blu Arboretum Hotel in Nairobi announced a Kshs 1.4 bn renovation plan to upgrade its facilities and enhance guest experiences. The refurbishment will focus on modernizing guest rooms, meeting spaces, dining areas, and recreational facilities to align with contemporary hospitality standards. This initiative underscores Radisson Hotel Group's commitment to maintaining its competitive edge in Nairobi's burgeoning hospitality sector. The expansion will feature two basement floors, two lower ground levels, a ground floor, and three upper floors, adding 80 guest rooms, indoor and outdoor restaurants, four ballrooms, four exhibition spaces, four meeting rooms, four board rooms, a multipurpose hall, gym, spa, changing rooms, 328 parking spaces, and more. The renovation is estimated to take approximately 3 years.
The planned upgrade is expected to boost the hotel's appeal to both business and leisure travelers, offering state-of-the-art amenities and services. By investing in these enhancements, Radisson Blu aims to strengthen its position in the market and attract a diverse clientele seeking quality accommodations in Nairobi. The upgrade aims to provide more affordable, modern, and accessible accommodation and conference facilities for local and international guests, tapping into the growing tourism sector.
In 2024, Kenya received 2.4 mn international visitors, a 15.0% growth from the previous year, with inbound tourism revenue increasing from Kshs 377.5 bn in 2023 to Ksh 452.2 bn, a 19.8% growth. Additionally, Kenya's hospitality sector has experienced notable growth, with domestic bed occupancy rising by 12.0%, from Kshs 4.6 mn in 2023 to 5.1 mn in 2024. This increase reflects a robust recovery in domestic tourism, likely driven by improved economic conditions and effective marketing strategies promoting local travel. In response to this heightened demand, the industry is set to expand significantly, with 31 new hotels planned, adding a total of 4,268 rooms to the market.
This expansion indicates strong investor confidence in Kenya's tourism sector and is expected to enhance the country's capacity to accommodate both domestic and international tourists. The additional rooms will likely alleviate pressure during peak seasons, improve service delivery, and potentially lead to more competitive pricing. However, this growth also presents challenges, such as the need for adequate infrastructure development, workforce training, and sustainable practices to ensure the long-term viability of the tourism industry.
We expect this development to reflect a positive trend in Nairobi's real estate sector, signaling renewed investor confidence and a focus on quality improvements. Such investments are anticipated to stimulate further growth in the hospitality industry and contribute to the overall economic development of the region.
During the week, Centum Real Estate, a subsidiary of Centum Investment Company, signed a deal with Pan-African developer ARISE to jointly establish a Kshs 388.2 bn industrial park within the Vipingo Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in kilifi town starting within the next quarter. The development will sit on a 2,000-acre Vipingo SEZ land and the business park will have manufacturing and logistic hubs potentially creating 500,000 jobs.
The Vipingo Model City offers a diverse array of investment opportunities, including residential homes, fully serviced residential and industrial plots, as well as prospects in commercial, hospitality, and institutional sectors. Notable residential projects within the development include Awali Estate Phases 1 & 2, 1255 Palm Ridge Phases 1 & 2, and Kingswood Park Vipingo homes. The development is equipped with key urban infrastructure, such as a 3 mn-liter capacity per day seawater desalination plant and an on-site power substation, ensuring reliable utilities for residents and businesses.
The establishment of the SEZ is a significant milestone, as it positions Vipingo as a major access point to Kenya and the broader East and Central African region. This designation is expected to attract both local and foreign enterprises seeking to capitalize on the logistical advantages and incentives associated with operating within an SEZ.
We expect that the development of the Vipingo Model City will have a transformative impact on the real estate sector in the region. By providing a well-planned, mixed-use community with modern infrastructure and amenities, it sets a benchmark for future developments. The SEZ status is likely to spur industrial growth, create employment opportunities, and stimulate economic activities, thereby enhancing the overall attractiveness of Kilifi County as a destination for investment and settlement. This project exemplifies a strategic approach to urban development, integrating residential, commercial, and industrial components to foster sustainable growth.
On the Unquoted Securities Platform, Acorn D-REIT and I-REIT traded at Kshs 25.4 and Kshs 22.2 per unit, respectively, as per the last updated data on 14th March 2025. The performance represented a 27.0% and 11.0% gain for the D-REIT and I-REIT, respectively, from the Kshs 20.0 inception price. The volumes traded for the D-REIT and I-REIT came in at Kshs 12.8 mn and Kshs 35.6 mn shares, respectively, with a turnover of Kshs 323.5 mn and Kshs 791.5 mn, respectively, since inception in February 2021. Additionally, ILAM Fahari I-REIT traded at Kshs 11.0 per share as of 14th March 2025, representing a 45.0% loss from the Kshs 20.0 inception price. The volume traded to date came in at 138,600 shares for the I-REIT, with a turnover of Kshs 1.5 mn since inception in November 2015.
REITs offer various benefits, such as tax exemptions, diversified portfolios, and stable long-term profits. However, the ongoing decline in the performance of Kenyan REITs and the restructuring of their business portfolios are hindering significant previous investments. Additional general challenges include:
We expect Kenya’s Real Estate sector to remain on a growth trend, supported by: i) demand for housing sustained by positive demographics, such as urbanization and population growth rates of 3.8% p.a and 2.0% p.a, respectively, against the global average of 1.7% p.a and 0.9% p.a, respectively, as at 2023,, ii) activities by the government under the Affordable Housing Program (AHP) iii) heightened activities by private players in the residential sector iv) increased investment by local and international investors in the hospitality and industrial sector,v) improved infrastructure throughout the country. However, challenges such as rising construction costs, strain on infrastructure development (including drainage systems), high capital requirements for REITs, and existing oversupply in select Real Estate sectors will continue to hinder the sector’s optimal performance by limiting developments and investments.
National Social Security schemes are created by governments to form the first pillar of social security. In Africa, Kenya was the second country after Ghana to form a national security scheme, The National Social Security Fund (NSSF), done in 1965 through an Act of Parliament (Cap 258). It is a provident fund, which provides benefits to retiring members as a lump sum rather than through periodic payments. In recent years, discussions around the growth and reform of the NSSF have gained momentum, with key considerations on how to increase coverage, especially for the informal sector, and improve service delivery. As such, we saw it fit to cover a topical on the Kenyan National Social Security Fund to shed light on the financials, recent developments and provide recommendations to improve efficiency. We shall do this by taking a look into the following;
Section I: Introduction to the National Social Security Fund
Social security is defined as any programme of social protection established by legislation, or any other mandatory arrangement, that provides individuals with a degree of income security when faced with the contingencies of old age, survivorship, incapacity, disability, or unemployment. In Kenya, the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) offers social protection to all Kenyan workers in the formal and informal sectors by providing a platform to make contributions during their productive years to cater for their livelihoods in old age and the other consequences resulting from unprecedented occurrences such as death or invalidity among others.
The National Social Security Fund (NSSF) has evolved over time having been established in 1965 through an Act of Parliament Cap 258 of the Laws of Kenya. The Fund initially operated as a Department of the Ministry of Labor until 1987 when the NSSF Act was amended transforming the Fund into a State Corporation under the Management of a Board of Trustees. The Act was established as a mandatory national scheme whose main objective was to provide basic financial security benefits to Kenyans upon retirement. The Fund was set up as a Provident Fund providing benefits in the form of a lump sum. Thereafter, the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) Act, No.45 of 2013 was assented to on 24th December 2013 and commenced on 10th January 2014 thereby transforming NSSF from a Provident Fund to a Pension Scheme. Every Kenyan with an income was required to contribute a percentage of his/her gross earnings so as to be guaranteed basic compensation in case of permanent disability, basic assistance to needy dependents in case of death, and a monthly life pension upon retirement. The Act establishes two funds namely;
NSSF has gained traction over the years, but particularly in the last two years, owing to implementation of the NSSF Act of 2013, which came into effect in February 2023 and is currently in its third year of implementation. The Act increased contributions to the fund from the initial Kshs 400.0 to 12.0% of individuals' income, with the employee and employers both contributing 6.0% each. As of June 2024, total assets held by NSSF stood at Kshs 402.2 bn, a 22.6% increase from Kshs 328.1 bn in December 2023. On y/y basis the assets under management increased by 30.5% from Kshs 308.3 bn in June 2023, attributable to the higher member contributions as a result of the second phase of the implementation of the NSSF Act of 2013, which increased monthly contributions leading to higher fund inflows. The graph below shows the movement of the funds Assets Under Management from 2019 to 2024:
Source: RBA Annual Reports, 2024* data as of June 2024
According to the latest Retirement Benefits Authority (RBA) Annual Report, 13.1% of the total assets, amounting to Kshs 52.5 bn was managed internally by NSSF, while the remaining Kshs 348.7 bn was held by seven external fund managers. A breakdown of NSSF’s investment portfolio as of June 2024 reveals a strong preference for government securities, which accounted for 67.8% of total assets. This significant allocation is both strategic and common among pension schemes due to the safety, stability, and credibility associated with government bonds. These instruments offer guaranteed returns, minimal default risk, and predictable income streams, aligning well with the long-term investment horizon of pension funds. Beyond government securities, quoted equities made up 14.5% of the portfolio, reflecting NSSF’s exposure to publicly traded companies, while immovable property comprised 10.0% of the portfolio and 2.8% in fixed deposits. The chart below shows NSSF total assets spread as of June 2024:
Source: RBA Annual Report June 2024
Section II: Financial Year 2023/2024 Financial Performance
The National Social Security Fund (NSSF) recorded a significant 233.4% net increase in funds to Kshs 88.0 bn for the period ending 30th June 2024, from Kshs 26.4 bn in a similar period in 2023. This was mainly driven by the 238.1% increase in the net investment income to Kshs 41.7 bn in FY’2023/24 from Kshs 12.3 bn in FY’2022/23, coupled with a 160.3% growth in the net contributions to Kshs 52.6 bn in FY’2023/24 from Kshs 20.2 bn in FY’2022/23. The performance was however weighed down by the 2.8% increase in total operating costs to Kshs 6.9 bn, from Kshs 6.7 bn in FY’2022’23. The table below shows a breakdown of NSSF statement of changes in net assets for the year ended 30th June 2024:
Cytonn Report: NSSF Statement of Change in Net Assets |
|||
FY'2022/23 |
FY'2023/24 |
y/y change |
|
Kshs (bn) |
Kshs (bn) |
||
Dealings with Member Funds |
|||
Remitted Member Contributions |
26.9 |
59.1 |
120.1% |
Unremitted Member Contributions |
0.0 |
3.1 |
- |
Total Contributions Receivable |
26.9 |
62.3 |
131.8% |
Benefits Paid |
(6.7) |
(9.7) |
45.5% |
Net Contributions |
20.2 |
52.6 |
160.3% |
Investment Income |
|||
FV Gain (Loss) on Revaluation of Investments |
(18.4) |
3.0 |
116.2% |
FV Gain (Loss) on Realization of Investments |
0.5 |
(0.2) |
(147.2%) |
Investment Income |
31.0 |
39.6 |
27.9% |
Investment Management Expenses |
(0.7) |
(0.7) |
5.2% |
Net Investment Income |
12.3 |
41.7 |
238.1% |
Other Income |
0.5 |
0.6 |
13.1% |
Net Revenue |
12.9 |
42.3 |
228.6% |
Total Operating Costs |
(6.7) |
(6.9) |
2.8% |
Net Increase in Fund |
26.4 |
88.0 |
233.4% |
Net Assets as Previously Stated |
285.7 |
312.1 |
9.2% |
Net Assets |
312.1 |
400.1 |
28.2% |
Source: Report of the Auditor General on NSSF June 2024
Key take outs from the table include:
Source: NSSF Annual Reports, Report of the Auditor General on NSSF June 2024
The table below shows the NSSF statement of net assets available for benefits as of 30th June 2024:
Cytonn Report: NSSF Statement of Net Assets Available for Benefits |
|||||||
Investment Assets |
FY'2022/23 (Kshs bn) a |
FY'2023/24 (Kshs bn) B |
% Allocation FY'2022/23 c |
%Allocation FY'2023/24 d |
y/y change (a-b) |
% points change (c-d) |
|
Government Securities |
187.8 |
253.8 |
69.9% |
71.6% |
35.2% |
1.7% |
|
Quoted Stocks |
53.0 |
61.2 |
19.7% |
17.3% |
15.5% |
(2.5%) |
|
Term and Demand Deposits |
14.9 |
11.4 |
5.6% |
3.2% |
(23.3%) |
(2.3%) |
|
Accrued Income |
7.6 |
10.9 |
2.8% |
3.1% |
44.3% |
0.3% |
|
Eurobonds |
0.0 |
7.2 |
0.0% |
2.0% |
- |
2.0% |
|
Private Equity and other unlisted securities |
0.8 |
5.5 |
0.3% |
1.6% |
597.8% |
1.3% |
|
TPS Loans |
2.7 |
2.5 |
1.0% |
0.7% |
(5.8%) |
(0.3%) |
|
Corporate Bonds |
1.7 |
1.7 |
0.6% |
0.5% |
(1.1%) |
(0.2%) |
|
Total |
268.5 |
354.3 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
32.0% |
Source: Report of the Auditor General on NSSF June 2024
Key take outs from the table include:
The Fund’s returns increased by 7.8% points to 12.0% in FY’2023/24 from 4.2% recorded in a similar period in 2023. NSSF has recorded an average return of 6.7% over the last five years with the highest return recorded in 2021. The graph below shows the performance of the Fund’s returns over the last 5 years:
Source: NSSF Reports, Office of the Auditor General
Despite the government making NSSF mandatory, Kenya’s saving culture still lags behind in comparison to other more developed countries partly attributable to low disposable income with 35.1% of the Kenyan population as of 2023 living below the poverty line coupled with lack of sufficient knowledge on the importance of saving for retirement. The graph below shows the gross savings to GDP of select countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa Region and the developed economies;
Source: World Bank, *Figures as of 2023
Section III: Recent Developments at the National Social Security Fund
In early 2025, Kenya’s National Social Security Fund (NSSF) ushered in a pivotal chapter of its evolution, marking the third year of implementing the transformative NSSF Act of 2013. With the stroke of new contribution limits effective 1st February 2025, the fund has broadened its reach, pulling more of workers’ earnings into the fold of pension savings. The lower earnings threshold has edged up from Kshs 7,000 to Kshs 8,000, while the upper limit has soared from Kshs 36,000 to Kshs 72,000, doubling the ceiling for contributions.
This expansion, however, is a double-edged sword. For employees, particularly those at the lower end of the income spectrum, the increase from Kshs 420 to Kshs 480 trims take-home pay by an additional Kshs 60 monthly, a modest figure that nonetheless bites into budgets already stretched by rising costs. Mid-tier earners, such as those at Kshs 50,000, face a steeper Kshs 840 increase, while high earners see their contributions double, promising greater retirement security at the expense of current liquidity. Employers, too, feel the weight of these adjustments. A business with a handful of employees earning above Kshs 72,000 now shoulders an additional Kshs 2,160 per worker each month, a burden that could strain small enterprises or prompt larger firms to rethink staffing strategies. Yet, there’s a potential relief valve: employers with private pension schemes can opt out of Tier II contributions, redirecting funds to approved alternatives, though this requires navigating regulatory hoops. The adjustments, effective from February this year, are summarized as follows:
Cytonn Report: NSSF Contribution Limits Adjustments |
||
Year 2 (Previous Rates) |
Year 3 (New Rates Commenced February 2025) |
|
Lower Limit (Tier 1) |
7,000 |
8,000 |
Total Contribution by Employee |
420 |
480 |
Total Contribution by Employer |
420 |
480 |
Total Tier 1 NSSF Contributions |
840 |
960 |
Upper Limit (Tier 2) |
36,000 |
72,000 |
Contribution on Upper Limit (6% of Upper Limit Less Lower Limit) |
29,000 |
64,000 |
Total Contribution by Employee |
1,740 |
3,840 |
Total Contribution by Employer |
1,740 |
3,840 |
Total Tier 2 NSSF Contributions |
3,480 |
7,680 |
Total NSSF Contributions |
4,320 |
8,640 |
Source: www.nssf.or.ke
The lack of updates suggests operational or political hurdles in enforcing financial oversight, undermining confidence in CMA’s regulatory capacity. With NSSF’s total assets at Kshs 400.1 bn as of June 2024, any unresolved mismanagement could erode member returns, highlighting systemic risks in transparency and governance within Kenya’s pension sector. Below is the performance summary for the last reported years, compared to the estimated returns from a portfolio of 60.0% bonds and 40.0% equities:
Source: NSSF strategic plan 2023-2027
Source: Cytonn Research, NSSF strategic plan 2023-2027
On average, the NSSF portfolio has underperformed by 2.0 percentage points compared to a comparable benchmark. While NSSF recorded a return of 6.7%, a similarly constructed portfolio—split between 60.0% government bonds and 40.0% equities from the NASI—achieved 8.7% over the same period. While there may be a number of reasons for this, occurrences such as the irregular bond trades could definitely have contributed to this.
Section IV: Factors Hindering the Growth of NSSF
The growth of Kenya’s National Social Security Fund (NSSF) has been constrained by a combination of interconnected factors affecting its efficiency, financial stability, and capacity to deliver sufficient retirement benefits. In this regard, we examine the key challenges that have hindered the fund’s growth as follows:
Section V: Key Considerations for Improving NSSF in Kenya
We note that the government has consistently tried to promote a savings culture in the country through various reforms, including raising contribution rates and making contributions mandatory. For instance, in the NSSF Act 2013, the government recommended a mandatory registration contribution to NSSF by employees and employers. The Act aimed to enhance the sustainability of retirement benefits for Kenyan workers. Key provisions of the Act include an increase in contribution rates, from a flat rate of Kshs 400.0 to 12.0% of an employee's monthly earnings, with 6.0% contributed by the employee and an equal amount by the employer.
However, the enactment of the Act has faced legal challenges. Multiple petitions were filed questioning its constitutionality, leading to a decision by the Employment and Labor Relations Court (ELRC). On September 19, 2022, in Kenya Tea Growers Association & 8 Others v. NSSF Board & Others, the ELRC ruled that the Act was unconstitutional on the basis of;
After this ruling, the NSSF Board of Trustees filed an appeal, and the case eventually reached the Supreme Court of Kenya. The Supreme Court assessed whether the ELRC had the authority to determine the Act's constitutionality. In the end, the court upheld the ELRC’s jurisdiction but referred the case to the Court of Appeal for further review. In our opinion, the following are key actionable steps that can be considered to drive NSSF’s growth while striving to balance the interests of the government, employers, and employees.
Section VI: Conclusion
The National Social Security Fund (NSSF) has seen quite a turnaround in its performance due to its implemented strategies such as diversification of its investments in high yielding investments as well as increased contribution due to implementation of the revived NSSF Act of 2013. However, there are still some challenges that threatens its credibility and the financial security of its members that needs to be addressed. For countless retirees, the NSSF represents a lifetime of dedication and sacrifice, making the protection of their benefits essential. Restoring trust requires the establishment of robust oversight mechanisms, including independent audits and strict adherence to remittance timelines. Now is the time for all stakeholders—government, regulators, and fund management—to come together in a unified effort to strengthen the NSSF, ensuring it continues to secure the retirement futures of millions of Kenyans. Swift action is imperative, as it will help alleviate old-age poverty and provide a stable income to replace earnings in retirement.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the writers where particulars are not warranted. This publication, which is in compliance with Section 2 of the Capital Markets Authority Act Cap 485A, is meant for general information only and is not a warranty, representation, advice or solicitation of any nature. Readers are advised in all circumstances to seek the advice of a registered investment advisor.