By Cytonn Research Team, Aug 30, 2015
Treasury bills were undersubscribed during the week, with total subscriptions declining to 57.7%, compared to last week?s 79.8%. The yields on the 182-day and the 364-day increased to 12.4% and 13.8% from 12.3% and 13.0%, respectively. Yields declined marginally on the 91-day T-bill to 11.5%, from 11.6% the previous week amidst slight oversubscriptions, at 107.4%, compared to 31.0% and 47.2% subscription rates for the 182-day and 364-day, respectively. The oversubscription on the 91-day T-bill is in line with our recommendation, showing investors prefer short-term fixed income investments given uncertainty in the current interest rate environment.
The Supreme Court upheld a ruling demanding that teachers be paid a 50% - 60% pay rise. This increment is expected to result in unplanned expenditures of Kshs 15.4 bn in the budget for the 2015/2016 financial year. We are wary of such an increase, as in order to finance this shortfall, the Kenyan Government is expected to issue a supplementary budget, and the expected impact of this will either:
Despite the Central Bank intervening mid-week to mop up liquidity, the shilling continued to weaken during the week, losing 0.3% to close at 103.7 against the dollar. The shilling is expected to remain under pressure, given Kenya?s large current account deficit, and widening trade deficit which was at Kshs 492.8 bn in June, compared to Kshs 471.6 bn last year, owing to the increase in industrial goods imports. To address the exchange rate in the medium to long-term, the country must address the current account deficit and the import-export imbalance by encouraging more locally produced manufactured goods.
We continue to maintain our recommendation that investors should be biased towards short-term fixed income instruments due to uncertainty of rates in the current environment.
The market continued on a downward trend this week, posting the largest weekly losses in 2015. NASI and NSE 20 declined by 6.3% and 6.9%, respectively, due to losses in large cap stocks, with BAT down 10.0%, Cooperative Bank down 9.5%, Standard Chartered Bank Kenya down 8.6%, EABL down 8.5%, Safaricom down 5.7%, KCB down 4.3% and Equity Bank down 3.8%. Contrary to the previous week, foreign investors were net buyers in the market with net inflows standing at Kshs 400m, and active foreign participation was recorded in most liquid counters like Safaricom, KCB and Equity Bank. Since the February peak, NASI and NSE 20 are down 18.9% and 23.6%, respectively, and 14.7% and 20.5% on a year to date basis, respectively. The decline is clearly past the correction point and investors are now looking at the fundamentals of the listed stocks.
On the earnings front, a number of companies announced their half year results, with Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) recording a 39.6% y/y rise in PAT to Kshs 178.6 mn, mainly backed by a 226.8% y/y increase in interest income. Operating income rose marginally (4.7% y/y) to Kshs 314.3 mn and its contribution to total income declined to 78.4% in 1H?15, compared to 85.0% in 1H?14. This can be attributed to subdued trading activity, which only rose by 5.5% y/y (compared to a 37.5% y/y rise between 1H?14 and 1H?13) owing to the effects of the re-introduction of capital gains tax at the beginning of the year and the focus on other equity markets by foreign investors. Going forward, NSE will need to diversify its product offerings in order to grow revenues. NSE is on course to launch the derivatives market, and we await the launching and trading of the first listed REIT; continued product development is what is likely to drive revenue growth. However, we don?t see these new initiatives contributing to growth in 2015; consequently for 2H?15, we expect earnings from operations to continue being depressed due to the bearish outlook on the equities market.
After weak earnings releases from banks in the previous weeks, the trend seems to continue in other sectors. During the week, Total Kenya recorded a 16.7%y/y decline in PAT to Kshs 525.5 mn from Kshs 631.1 mn in the same period in 2014. The performance was weighed down by (i) 32.6% decline in net sales on the back of a slump in international oil prices, (ii) 351.8% increase in forex losses to Kshs 191.0 mn, and (iii) 4.0% decline in sales volumes which resulted from a slump in bulk sales to other oil marketing firms. Retail sales however remained robust with Total retaining its 20% market share. Going forward, the currency weakness and the uncertainty in the global oil prices are expected to impact the performance of the company. Crown Paints recorded a 75.7% slump in 1H?15 PAT to Kshs 25.1 mn, from 103.3 mn in 1H?14 and this comes after a 90.8% decline in the 2014 earnings. Given the 15.2% increase in revenues, the decline in profitability was attributed to regional expansion costs, mainly to Tanzania, as well as the depreciation of the Kenya Shilling. Management maintains a positive outlook for 2H?15 owing to the increased activity in the construction industry.
Insurance companies Britam and Liberty released their 1H?15 results. Britam?s 1H?15 PAT slumped 77.7% y/y to Kshs 624.5 mn, from 2.7 bn in 1H?14, despite an 81.8% growth in gross earned premiums to Kshs 10.2 bn. Despite the increase in gross earned premiums, total revenue grew a marginal 7.8% y/y to Kshs 11.0 bn, from Kshs 10.2 bn in 1H?14, with the insurance business remaining the greatest contributor at 93%. The poor performance was mainly attributed to a 129% y/y decline in fair value changes on financial assets, which saw the insurer record fair value losses of Kshs 842.9 mn, compared to a gain of Kshs 2.9 bn in 1H?14, with fund management fees and investment income growing by 33.3% from Kshs 2.8 bn, from Kshs 2.1 bn in H1?14. Adjusting for fair value gains and losses, total revenue grew by 61.1%. However, it is not clear what part of the growth is driven by core business growth and what part is driven by the Real Insurance acquisition. Total expenses grew by 38.2%, driven by a 140.0% increase in insurance claims and loss adjustment benefits to Kshs 5.1 bn in 1H?15 from Kshs 2.1 bn in 1H?14. Net claims and policyholder benefits grew 42.0% y/y to account for 46.3% of total income, up from 35.1% in 1H14. The loss ratio increased from 42.3% to 61.0%, while commissions payable increased by 81.0% from 1.1 bn in 1H?14 to 1.9 bn in 1H?15. If the growth in premiums and revenues are not largely driven by acquisitions, then core revenue appears to be doing fine, however, the expense side of the business is troubling given an expense growth of 38.2%, and total expense to revenue ratio of 92.4%, up from 72.1% in 1H?14. Additionally, the extreme volatility of Britam?s earnings, given its strong correlation to performance of equities revenues can only be addressed by a clear diversification strategy, which Britam has pinned on real estate. However, the real estate strategy is still too fuzzy to credibly factor into projections.
Liberty Insurance also released 1H?15 results recording 8.9%y/y decline in PAT to Kshs 419.9 mn from Kshs 461m in H1 15. This was as a result of a 47.3% y/y decline in investment income to Kshs 649.8 mn, accounting for 15.8% of total income compared to 32.9% in 1H14. The drop is attributed to fair value losses on its equities investments and significant reductions in the values of mark-to-market fixed income portfolio. Gross earned premiums grew 19.8% y/y as a result of increased depth in channel of distributions and focus on retail business. Net insurance claims and benefits increased 20.0% y/y (42.7% of revenue) while the commissions payable increased 30.8% y/y, which further compressed the income. The loss ratio declined to 59.7% in 1H?15 from 68.9% in 1H?14 which is good for the business. With the continued focus on alternative distribution channels and increased focus on retail market, there exists an upside for the company given Kenya?s low insurance penetration rate, which is currently at 2.9%.
We shall be working on the insurance sector report, which we shall release in early October.
Bamburi Cement recorded a 85.9% y/y jump in PAT to Kshs 3.0 bn, compared to Kshs 1.6 bn in 1H?14. Driven by a strong growth in sales and aggressive cost cutting initiatives. Sales grew by 11.7% to Kshs 19.3 bn, compared to Kshs 17.3 bn in June 2014, as a result of increase in cement demand in Kenya and Uganda, and strong inland Africa export markets. Expenses grew by a marginal 1.3%, from Kshs 15.1 bn in 1H?14 to Kshs 15.3 bn in 1H?15. Operating profit increased by 82.5% to Kshs 4.0 bn, compared to Kshs 2.2bn as at the end of June 2014. The management of Bamburi exuded confidence that the second half operating environment remains positive and that the company is on track to achieving its revenue growth targets for 2015, underpinned by a robust construction industry.
Given the high interest rate environment, which may result in slower economic growth, most listed companies will report stunted earnings growth, as has been reflected in the earning releases of companies that have published their result for first half of 2015. The weak shilling will also affect the manufacturing sector companies, which rely on imported inputs. With most listed stocks seemingly fairly valued, we remain neutral on equities, but will be reviewing our position in next week?s report.
Private Equity
South African logistics firm OneLogix is in negotiation with Kuehn+Nagel?s local subsidiary in Kenya to acquire a 30% stake valued at USD 1 mn. Kuehn+Nagel, a Swiss logistics company, deals with bulk transportation of vehicles, and the investment from OneLogix will go into buying a new fleet of carriers and improvement of their IT systems, which will be used to build capacity in operations. The investment thesis is driven by:
According to the Economic Survey 2015 by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the transport and storage sector grew by 13.7%, from an output of Kshs. 768.3 bn in 2013, to Kshs. 873.3 bn in 2014, with the road transport sub sector growing by 15.2% to Kshs. 600.2 bn in 2014, affirming the growth potential in the sector. With the current infrastructural developments in the country, specialized logistics and storage facilities are needed to transport raw materials, specialized equipment, and drive efficiency in the industry.
Abraaj Group announced the first close of its 2nd North African Fund (Abraaj North Africa Fund II) at USD 375.0 mn. Cumulatively, Abraaj has raised USD 1.4 bn for the African continent this year, a record for any PE firm investing in Africa, having raised USD 990.0 mn for its 3rd Sub Saharan Africa Fund. This fund is designed to target mid-sized businesses in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia that have displayed a strong growth potential. It focuses on sectors such as healthcare, education, FCMG and logistics.
Global institutional investors, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and development finance institutions helped close the fund, with 63.0% of the total capital committed coming from European and North American investors. Currently the fund has made 6 investments across its target markets with its initial investment in the North Africa Hospital Group, a healthcare company with assets in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. In addition to North Africa recording the highest income level in the continent, 156 PE deals took place from 2007-2014 worth USD 5.3 bn (as per the Africa Private Equity and Venture Capital Association?s spotlight on North Africa) affirming that North Africa offers an attractive PE destination.
Global private equity players such as Abraaj are attracted to the African continent due to a number of factors:
Once the 2015 Finance Bill is passed, real estate developers will pay less to acquire building permits in Nairobi, which is expected to cost 0.5% of the total construction cost, down from the current rate of between 1.0% and 1.5%, the range varying as per the size of the building. The construction permit fee has been increased exponentially, from rates of 0.001% to 0.006% of the cost of construction in 2012, and finally reaching the current average rate of 1.25% in 2013, which has stood till today. The increase in the rates has been reflected in the Nairobi County?s revenue collection, with records showing that in the fiscal year ending June 2015, the County collected Kshs 1.3 bn from this revenue stream, a major leap from Kshs 840 mn in 2014. The proposed rate of 0.5% of construction cost will be flat, a marked departure from the current rate, where the range of between 1.0% and 1.5% is based on the size of the building. The lower permit fee is contrary to the recent market trends, which have seen multiple fees introduced in the real estate industry as investors pump in billions of shillings to leverage on rising home prices and rental income.
As per the Physical Planning Bill 2015, there is a proposal that property developers and individuals building homes will have to complete construction within 5 years or face penalties. The Bill states that, once an applicant is granted development permission for building works, that applicant shall complete those building works within 5 years after receiving the development permission. In our view:
Kenya has grown through the years to become East and Central Africa?s business and financial centre. Houses for sale in upcoming areas of Nairobi and its metropolis, where growth is centred, are highly sought after. The diverse population lends itself to providing a truly cosmopolitan city serving as the regional headquarters for some of the world?s largest corporations such as General Electric, Hewlett-Packard, Google, & Coca-Cola.
Growth in the economy has had a profound positive effect on the middle class, who have benefitted greatly on the back of improved economic conditions, which has resulted in increased demand of residential housing outpacing market supply. Kenya?s residential property market in middle income category has seen a price surge resulting in the market outperforming most other asset classes in Kenya over the last 10 years.
As can be seen below, the real estate sector has outperformed public markets investments in fixed income and equities, while our development in Ruaka, ?The Alma?, is delivering above market returns of 28% and 41% for completed units and developer equity, respectively.
As highlighted in our Cytonn report #33 last week, there is a huge opportunity in providing housing for the low to middle income bracket in Kenya, especially along the bypasses, which have opened up development opportunities.
Development opportunity in satellite towns is driven by:
The chart below shows the appreciation of land prices in satellite towns across Nairobi and its metropolis:
Nairobi Satellite Towns* |
Change from 2007 |
Average Annual Return |
Price per Acre (Kshs) |
Athi River |
864% |
31% |
11,100,000 |
Juja |
783% |
29% |
6,800,000 |
Limuru |
755% |
29% |
14,300,000 |
Tigoni |
708% |
28% |
17,600,000 |
Thika |
700% |
28% |
14,300,000 |
Ongata Rongai |
658% |
27% |
15,500,000 |
Ruiru |
625% |
26% |
14,700,000 |
Kiambu |
587% |
25% |
33,700,000 |
Mlolongo |
585% |
25% |
28,200,000 |
Ngong |
560% |
24% |
17,200,000 |
Syokimau |
554% |
24% |
16,900,000 |
Kiserian |
547% |
24% |
5,420,000 |
Ruaka |
509% |
23% |
56,600,000 |
Kitengela |
505% |
22% |
7,700,000 |
*Satellite market data sourced from HassConsult report.
We have picked Ruaka as one of our key areas of focus for developments because it is one of the few areas in the Nairobi metropolis that provides a secure, accessible, and convenient location with significant potential for attractive financial returns. Ruaka is situated 20 minutes drive away from the Westlands district, and a few minutes from Gigiri, which is where the UN headquarters are located. Essentially, it offers an opportunity to not only own and enjoy a home, but also a location that provides an attractive real estate investment opportunity, driven by 6 main factors:
The above unique factors have seen land prices in Ruaka increase 5 times over the last 7 years, and Ruaka is now the most expensive satellite town in Kenya to purchase land. The skyline of Ruaka, once a small rural centre better known for its security challenges, has changed more rapidly than adjacent satellite towns in the last five years, which has led to the increase in land prices. The appreciation of land prices in satellite towns could be attributed to increased development potential due to factors such as:
However, despite the attractiveness of Ruaka, it faces two key challenges:
When taking into account the development potential in the area i.e. (i) relaxed zoning, (ii) access to amenities, (iii) proximity to international organisations, and (iv) improved security, as well as the challenges of infrastructure and lifestyle, the most appropriate residential concept is a high-density mixed-use residential development, with a commercial centre and lifestyle facility in the development. This would be combined with market leading facilities management to offer services to those who wish to purchase units for investment, as well as to cater for those investors in the diaspora who cannot actively manage their development units.
Residential communities are comprehensive developments, which encompass a comprehensive clubhouse, restaurant and light retail and commercial conveniences.
Having chosen Ruaka as one of the locations where Cytonn Real Estate will focus on, we undertook market research to quantify the return potential for residential community developments in the area.
We carried out market research, targeting at finding four key assumptions for residential community developments in Ruaka:
Summary of research findings:
all values in Kshs unless stated |
||||||||
Project Name |
Location |
Year of Commencement |
No. of Bedrooms |
No. of Units |
% Sales Achieved |
Current Selling Price |
Size per unit (SQM) |
Price/SQM |
Lyne Apartments |
Off Limuru Road |
2014 |
2 |
10 |
40% |
7,500,000 |
71 |
105,634 |
Mulberry |
Along Limuru Road |
2012 |
2 |
18 |
72% |
7,500,000 |
90 |
83,333 |
Runda View |
Off Limuru Road |
2010 |
2 |
50 |
78% |
7,500,000 |
86 |
87,209 |
Ruaka Ridge |
Off Limuru Road |
2015 |
2 |
50 |
80% |
7,000,000 |
92 |
76,087 |
Pearl Court |
Off Limuru Road |
2014 |
2 |
20 |
100% |
8,500,000 |
108 |
78,704 |
2-Bedroom Mean |
|
|
|
30 |
74% |
7,600,000 |
89 |
86,193 |
Pearl Court |
Off Limuru Road |
2013 |
3 |
14 |
36% |
9,900,000 |
131 |
75,573 |
Pearl Court |
Off Limuru Road |
2014 |
3 |
30 |
47% |
9,300,000 |
123 |
75,610 |
Haven Park |
Along Limuru Road |
2012 |
3 |
103 |
58% |
10,000,000 |
115 |
86,957 |
Runda View |
Off Limuru Road |
2010 |
3 |
40 |
82% |
8,500,000 |
104 |
81,731 |
Mulberry |
Along Limuru Road |
2012 |
3 |
18 |
100% |
9,000,000 |
110 |
81,818 |
3-Bedroom Mean |
|
|
|
41 |
65% |
9,340,000 |
117 |
80,338 |
OVERALL MEAN |
|
|
|
35 |
69% |
8,470,000 |
103 |
83,265 |
all values in Kshs unless stated |
||||||||
Project Name |
Location |
Year of Commencement |
No. of Bedrooms |
Size per Unit (SQM) |
Rental per Month |
Rental per SQM |
||
Lyne Apartments |
Off Limuru Road |
2014 |
2 |
71 |
30,000 |
423 |
||
Mulberry |
Along Limuru Road |
2012 |
2 |
90 |
30,000 |
333 |
||
Runda View |
Off Limuru Road |
2010 |
2 |
86 |
30,000 |
349 |
||
2-Bedroom Mean |
|
|
|
82 |
30,000 |
368 |
||
Haven Park |
Along Limuru Road |
2012 |
3 |
115 |
40,000 |
348 |
||
Runda View |
Off Limuru Road |
2010 |
3 |
104 |
45,000 |
433 |
||
Mulberry |
Along Limuru Road |
2012 |
3 |
110 |
35,000 |
318 |
||
3-Bedroom Mean |
|
|
|
110 |
40,000 |
366 |
||
OVERALL MEAN |
|
|
|
96 |
35,000 |
367 |
Based on our consultations with quantity surveyors, a well-finished unit in Ruaka should cost between Kshs 35,000 to Kshs 40,000 per square metre in constructions costs, giving a mid point of Kshs 37,500 per square metre. Given the average plinth area of about 103 square metres, then the average construction cost per unit, excluding land, is about Kshs 3,860,000, using a mid range Kshs 37,500 per SQM of construction costs multiplied by 103 SQM.
It is important to note that our research analysts did not come across any 1-bedroom development in Ruaka, however 1-bedroom apartments are present in Cytonn Real Estate?s development, ?The Alma?. Research and sentiment in the Ruaka market showed there was appetite for 1 bedroom housing for (i) professionals who have just begun working and are looking for rental accommodation, and (ii) diaspora investors who wish to invest in real estate in the region.
Rental Yield: Given a monthly rent of about Kshs 35,000 per month, that works out to be Kshs 420,000 per year. Given that house prices are about Kshs 8,470,000, it means that the gross rental yield for Ruaka should be about 5% p.a., consistent with residential property yield expectations.
Total Return: Rental Yield + Projected Capital Appreciation. Over the last 7 years, the annualized total capital appreciation has been 23% per annum. Given (i) the on-going infrastructure developments, (ii) upcoming retail and commercial facilities, (iii) close proximity to the bypass, and (iv) zoning changes going on in Ruaka, the next 5 years should show equal capital appreciation, so we estimate projected capital appreciation of at least 23% p.a.
The aforementioned rental yield of 5% p.a., combined with a 23% projected appreciation brings a total return of 28% per annum for completed units over the next 5 years.
Development Return: Developer return on investment, including financing costs, for those willing to invest equity into the Ruaka development gives a 41% IRR, which works out to an annualized return of 15% above the completed units return of 28%, which is very attractive for investors given that listed markets returns over the last 5 years have been about 13% per annum.
Cytonn?s upcoming development in Ruaka, ?The Alma?, is a comprehensive residential development. The development encompasses 284 residential units, with 1, 2 and 3 bedroom options set across a 3-acre parcel of land. It will also encompass (i) a commercial facility to provide basic necessities to the residents, (ii) a lifestyle clubhouse for residents, (iii) high levels of security, (iv) a borehole and sewer treatment facility, and (iv) round the clock security. The development will be located on the main Limuru road, 100 meters from the junction of the northern bypass, and a 5-minute commute from retail and commercial facilities such as Two Rivers mall, Village Market, and the Rosslyn mall development. To ensure that the quality of the development is maintained, Cytonn Real Estate shall undertake the facilities management of the development during the development, and after completion.
In conclusion, a 5% p.a. rental cash yield, a 28% p.a. total return, and 41% annualized development return makes Ruaka one of the most attractive real estate investment locations in Kenya.
For more information, and an early bird discount on the units, please fill in a reservation form at reservation form. To attend the launch of Ruaka scheduled for October 5th at the Kempinski hotel, Nairobi, please email sales@cytonn.com.