Oct 16, 2022
Following the release of the H1’2022 results by Kenyan insurance firms, the Cytonn Financial Services Research Team undertook an analysis on the financial performance of the listed insurance companies and the key factors that drove the performance of the sector. The report is themed ‘’Improved Efficiency Cushions Insurance Sector’s Core Earnings Growth”, where we assess the main trends in the sector, and areas that will be crucial for growth and stability going forward, seeking to give a view on which insurance firms are the most attractive and stable for investment. As a result, we shall address the following:
Section I: Insurance Penetration in Kenya
Insurance uptake in Kenya remains low compared to other key economies with the insurance penetration coming in at 2.2% as at 2021, according to the Central Bank of Kenya’s Kenya Financial Sector Stability Report 2022. The low penetration rate, which is below the global average of 7.0%, is attributable to the fact that insurance uptake is still seen as a luxury and mostly taken when it is necessary or a regulatory requirement. Key to note, Insurance penetration remained unchanged at 2.2% in 2021, same as what was recorded in 2020, despite the economic recovery that saw an improved business environment highlighting the low insurance uptake in the country.
Source: CBK Financial Stability Reports
The chart below shows the insurance penetration in other economies across Africa:
Source: Swiss Re, GCR Research, CBK
Insurance penetration in Africa has remained relatively low, averaging 3.1% in 2021, mainly attributable to lower disposable income in the continent and slow growth of alternative distribution channels and technology such as mobile phones to ensure wider reach of insurance products to the masses. Additionally, there has been slow inclusion of diversified products which cater for all income levels and groups. In 2021, South Africa remained the leader in insurance penetration in the continent as a result of mature and highly competitive market, coupled with strong institutions and a sound regulatory environment.
Section II: Key Themes that Shaped the Insurance Sector in H1’2022
Despite the country recording a 5.2% GDP growth in H1’2022, the business environment remained constrained by elevated inflation and supply chain constraints worsened by the geopolitical tensions arising from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. According to the Insurance Regulatory Authority(IRA)’s Q2’2022 Industry report, the insurance sector showcased resilience and recorded a 13.2% growth in gross premiums to Kshs 163.1 bn in H1’2022, from Kshs 144.0 bn in H1’2021. Key to note, the general insurance business contributed 56.7% of the industry’s premium income compared to 43.3% contribution by long term insurance business. During the period, the long term business premiums grew by 20.5% to Kshs 70.7 bn from Kshs 58.7 bn in H2’2021 while the general business premiums grew by 8.2% to Kshs 92.4 bn from Kshs 85.4 bn in H2’2021. Significant to note, motor insurance and medical insurance classes of insurance accounted for 62.5% of the gross premium income under the general insurance business compared to 62.3% in H1’2021. As for long-term insurance business, the major contributors to gross premiums were deposit administration and life assurance classes accounting for 60.7% in H2’2022, compared to the 59.7% contribution by the two classes recorded in H2’2021.
In the period under review, the net claims for the long term insurance business increased by 4.7% to Kshs 41.3 bn, from Kshs 39.4 bn in H1’2021. Similarly, net claims for the general business also increased by 14.5% to Kshs 37.1 bn, from Kshs 32.4 bn in H1’2022, driven by a 23.4% growth in medical claims to Kshs 15.5 bn in H1’2022, from Kshs 12.5 bn in H1’2021.
The NASI index declined by 25.5% in H2’2022 compared to a gain of 9.4% in H1’2021 consequently deteriorating the insurance sector’s bottom line as a result of fair value losses in the equities investments. This has seen the sector continue to reduce its allocation to quoted equities, with the proportion of quoted equities to total industry assets declining to 2.8% in H1’2022, from 4.0% in H1’2021. Key to note, Year to Date (YTD), NASI has also declined by 22.3%, which will continue to have a direct impact on the sector’s bottom-line, due to the expected fair value losses on the quoted securities.
Key highlights from the industry performance:
On valuations, listed insurance companies are trading at a price to book (P/Bv) of 0.7x, lower than listed banks at 0.8x, but both are lower than their 16-year historical averages of 1.5x and 1.8x, for the insurance and banking sectors, respectively. These two sectors are attractive for long-term investors supported by the strong economic fundamentals.
The key themes that have continued to drive the insurance sector include:
The onset of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 acted as a catalyst towards the adoption of digital distribution of insurance products as it was a necessity. Consequently, majority of insurance companies continue to take advantage of the available digital channels to drive growth and increase insurance penetration in the country. For the fourth quarter of FY’2021/22, active mobile subscriptions declined to 64.7 mn against a population of 55.0 mn, translating to a mobile penetration of 130.9%, according to Fourth Quarter Sector Statistics Report for the FY’2021/2022 . The high mobile penetration implies that mobile phones provide sufficient headroom to increase opportunities to distribute insurance products to the younger generation of consumers and those consumers that have not been served through traditional distribution methods. Given that the process of handling and inspecting claims manually is cumbersome and imperfect, the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) assists in investigating the legitimacy of claims and identifying those that are fraudulent. Additionally, firms are also leveraging data and AI to tailor products for their target markets. An example is Jubilee Holdings which has rolled out a digital virtual assistant, through which clients can receive real-time services that include the end to end purchase of insurance products and access to services free of human intervention.
To ensure that the sector benefits from a globally competitive financial services sector, the regulator has been working through regulation implementations to address some of the perennial, as well as emerging problems in the sector. The COVID-19 environment proved challenging especially on the regulatory front, as it was a balance between remaining prudent as an underwriter and adhering to the set regulations given the negative effect the pandemic. Regulations used for the insurance sector in Kenya include the Insurance Act Cap 487 and its accompanying schedule and regulations, Retirement Benefits Act Cap 197 and The Companies Act. In H1’2022, regulation remained a key aspect affecting the insurance sector and the key themes in the regulatory environment include;
The move to a risk based capital adequacy framework presented opportunities for capital raising initiatives mostly by the small players in the sector to shore up their capital and meet compliance measures. With the new capital adequacy assessment framework, capital is likely to be critical to ensuring stability and solvency of the sector to ensure the businesses are a going concern. In May 2022, Sanlam Limited, a South African financial services group listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, announced that it had entered into a definitive Joint Venture agreement for a term of 10 years with Allianz SE, with the aim to leverage on the two entities footprints in Africa and create a leading Pan-African financial services group, with an estimated equity value of Kshs 243.7 bn. Key to note, Sanlam Limited, indirectly owns 100.0% in Hubris Holdings Limited, which is the majority shareholder in Sanlam Kenya Plc, a listed insurance and financial services entity on the Nairobi Stock Exchange. The initial shareholding split of the Joint Venture was announced to be 60:40, Sanlam Limited to Allianz respectively, with the effective date of the proposed transaction being within 12-15 months of the announcement, subject to relevant approvals. However, given the length of the Agreement we expect that the Joint Venture will provide for Sanlam Kenya Plc, Allianz General Insurance Kenya and Jubilee General Insurance (which Allianz owns the majority stake in – 66.0%), to combine operations to grow their market share, asset base and bottom lines.
Section III: Industry Highlights and Challenges
Following the stable growth achieved by the insurance sector over the last decade, we expect the sector to experience sustained gradual growth on the back of an improving economy and subsequent growth in insurance premiums, which will enhance the capacity of the sector to sustain profitability.
In H1’2022, the Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA), in line with their mandate of regulating and promoting development of the insurance sector approved 12 new or repackaged insurance products filed by various insurance companies. In the new products, 2 or 16.7% of the 12 products were bundled products, 3 or 25.0% of the 12 products were medical plans, 1 or 8.3% of the 12 products was micro insurance, 1 or 8.3% of the 12 products was non-linked insurance, 2 or 16.7% of the 12 products were life products, while miscellaneous accounted for 3 or 25.0% of the total new/repackaged products.
Industry Challenges:
Section IV: Performance of the Listed Insurance Sector in H1’2022
The table below highlights the performance of the listed insurance sector, showing the performance using several metrics, and the key take-outs of the performance.
Cytonn Report: Listed Insurance Companies H1’2022 Earnings and Growth Metrics |
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Insurance |
Core EPS Growth |
Net Premium growth |
Claims growth |
Loss Ratio |
Expense Ratio |
Combined Ratio |
ROaE |
ROaA |
Britam |
77.4% |
5.1% |
(1.5%) |
73.5% |
48.6% |
122.1% |
2.0% |
0.3% |
CIC |
45.0% |
20.5% |
2.0% |
68.8% |
49.6% |
118.4% |
4.7% |
0.8% |
Sanlam |
(1.4%) |
5.5% |
(9.1%) |
91.4% |
36.7% |
128.2% |
(34.4%) |
(0.8%) |
Jubilee Insurance |
(25.3%) |
(7.6%) |
(16.2%) |
99.4% |
33.7% |
133.0% |
8.0% |
2.2% |
Liberty |
(99.4%) |
6.1% |
(20.0%) |
60.6% |
66.9% |
127.5% |
0.02% |
0.004% |
*H1'2022 Weighted Average |
16.0% |
1.7% |
(8.7%) |
83.4% |
43.4% |
126.8% |
3.4% |
1.1% |
H1'2021 Weighted Average |
127.6% |
6.3% |
29.1% |
92.8% |
53.8% |
146.6% |
6.2% |
1.6% |
*Market cap weighted as at 14/10/2022 **Market cap weighted as at 30/09/2021 |
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The key take-outs from the above table include;
Based on the Cytonn H1’2022 Insurance Report, we ranked insurance firms from a franchise value and from a future growth opportunity perspective with the former getting a weight of 40.0% and the latter a weight of 60.0%.
For the franchise value ranking, we included the earnings and growth metrics as well as the operating metrics shown in the table below in order to carry out a comprehensive review:
Cytonn Report: Listed Insurance Companies H1’2022 Franchise Value Score |
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Insurance Company |
Loss Ratio |
Expense Ratio |
Combined Ratio |
Return on Average Capital Employed |
Tangible Common Ratio |
Franchise Value Score |
Ranking |
CIC Group |
68.8% |
49.6% |
118.4% |
5.9% |
17.1% |
16 |
1 |
Liberty Holdings |
60.6% |
66.9% |
127.5% |
1.2% |
18.0% |
20 |
2 |
Jubilee Holdings |
99.4% |
33.7% |
133.0% |
9.7% |
26.1% |
21 |
3 |
Britam Holdings |
73.5% |
48.6% |
122.1% |
5.2% |
11.6% |
23 |
4 |
Sanlam Kenya |
91.4% |
36.7% |
128.2% |
(81.7%) |
1.0% |
25 |
5 |
Weighted Average H1'2022 |
83.4% |
43.4% |
126.8% |
3.9% |
18.3% |
|
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The Intrinsic Valuation is computed through a combination of valuation techniques, with a weighting of 40.0% on Discounted Cash-flow Methods, 35.0% on Residual Income and 25.0% on Relative Valuation. The overall FY’2020 ranking is as shown in the table below:
Cytonn Report: Listed Insurance Companies H1’2022 Comprehensive Ranking |
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Insurance |
Franchise Value Score |
Intrinsic Value Score |
Weighted Score |
H1’2022 Ranking |
FY'2021 Ranking |
Jubilee Holdings |
3 |
1 |
1.8 |
1 |
1 |
Liberty Holdings |
2 |
2 |
2.0 |
2 |
2 |
CIC Group |
1 |
4 |
2.8 |
3 |
5 |
Britam |
4 |
3 |
3.4 |
4 |
3 |
Sanlam Kenya |
5 |
5 |
5.0 |
5 |
4 |
Major Changes from the FY’2021 Ranking are;
Section V: Conclusion & Outlook of the Insurance Sector
In H1’2022, the insurance sector continued to suffer from low penetration rates which has been worsened by deteriorated business environment emanating from rising interest rates, increased inflationary pressures arising from geopolitical instability caused by Russian-Ukrainian conflict. As such, the level of disposable income has reduced amongst the citizens. However, the sector continues to undergo transition where traditional models have been disrupted, mainly on the digital transformation, innovation and regulation front, which have positively impacted the outlook. Going forward, we expect a steady growth in premiums as underwriters come up with products suited to the planning for unforeseen events like COVID-19 and global conflicts interfering with business operations. Key to note, the insurance sector should maintain the culture of innovation achieved during the pandemic period while maintaining the customer centricity as the main focus of the sector’s operating model. Insurance companies should also widen their historical focus from risk and cost minimization to venture into high levels of risk taking and experimentation which will consequently optimize the ongoing innovation, lead to differentiation among competitors and improve profit. As such, we are of the opinion that the insurance sector will have to perform delicate balancing acts to ensure that they remain profitable. The industry has a lot it can do in order to register considerable growth and improve the level of penetration in the country to the 2021 world average of 7.2%, some of this include:
To read the H1’2022 Insurance Report, please download it here
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the writers where particulars are not warranted. This publication is meant for general information only and is not a warranty, representation, advice or solicitation of any nature. Readers are advised in all circumstances to seek the advice of a registered investment advisor.