May 26, 2019
Kenya has a huge housing deficit of approximately 2.0 mn units, growing by 200,000 units p.a., according to National Housing Corporation. To tackle this, the National Government established the Affordable Housing Initiative, as one of its Big Four pillars to promote long-term economic development, focused on delivering 500,000 housing units for the lower and middle-income population segments by 2022, with a price range of Kshs 0.6 mn – Kshs 3.0 mn per house. (However in our analysis, prices for affordable housing would need to range at Kshs 3.6 mn and below at prevailing market conditions, as per the Cytonn Affordable Housing Note.)
The housing initiative composed of the following components:
Last month, we published the Kenya Mortgage Refinancing Company Note, which focused on how funding the end user would be achieved through provision of affordable long-term funding and capital market access to primary mortgage lenders. This week, we shift our focus to the National Housing Development Fund (NHDF), which looks into funding of the end user through a housing levy. Here we will look into;
The housing deficit in Kenya remains high at approximately 2.0mn units, with an annual demand of 200,000 units according to National Housing Corporation, driven by a rapid population growth rate at 2.5% p.a. and a high urbanisation rate at 4.3%, compared to 1.2% and 2.0% globally, respectively. Developers are unable to meet this demand due to inadequate credit supply, high cost of funding, low uptake due to low purchasing power of Kenyans, hence supplying only 50,000 units annually into the market thus leading to an annual deficit of 200,000 units across Kenya. According to the World Bank, 83.0% of the existing housing supply is for the high income and upper-middle-income segments, with only 15.0% for the lower-middle and 2.0% for the low-income population. This is as a result of developers seeking higher returns from high end developments targeting high net worth buyers who have high disposable income thus providing more demand for the houses, resulting in higher uptake.
Since independence, housing has been a key area of focus for the government. Over the years, several policies and strategies have been put in place to ensure provision of adequate housing for all, such as;
Government initiatives however have not been successful in sustainably tackling the housing problem in Kenya due to excessive bureaucracy in state departments, corruption, political interference and most importantly, lack of long-term sustainable frameworks.
In late 2000s to 2016, the real estate sector in Kenya enjoyed a boom with the sector’s contribution to GDP growing from 4.8% in 2010 to 8.4% in 2016, driven by entry of private developers. During this period, real estate became fully established, characterized by increased institutional developers in the sector, modern high-end designs and an increase in gated communities. The value of properties rose rapidly, with rental rates increasing by 200% between 2007-2017 according to the Hass Consult Rental Index. According to the Hass Price Index, the average value of a detached house in Nairobi has risen by 330% from Kshs. 7.1 mn in 2000, to Kshs. 30.1 mn in 2017, with the average price for 1, 2 and 3-bedroom detached units currently at Kshs. 13.7 mn, and the average prices for 4, 5 and 6 bedroomed detached units at Kshs. 40.1 mn.
However, provision and access to affordable housing still remains a challenge to not only the home buyers but also those involved in the supply end due to the following;
Majority of Kenyans earn relatively low incomes and are thus unable to afford decent housing. For instance, for one to purchase a standard 3-bedroom affordable housing unit costing Kshs. 3 mn using a mortgage at the current average rates of 13.6% and a tenure of 12-years, they have to earn a minimum income of Kshs. 106,000 per month in order to be able to pay the monthly payments of Kshs. 42,359. However, according to data from the KNBS 2017, 74.5% of employees in the formal sector earn less than Kshs. 50,000 per month, thus mortgages are out of reach for most people. In addition, 83.4% of total employment is in the informal sector, which is characterized by small scale activities, relatively unpredictable incomes and limited job security and thus they are unable to afford a house.
Prices of properties are continuously escalating, attributed to increased demand for housing due to the high urbanization rate of 4.3% and a population growth rate of 2.5%, thus locking out a majority of Kenyans who are unable to afford them. Land acquisition and construction costs have also been increasing, with developers mostly passing on the extra costs incurred to home buyers thus high prices of housing units, making the units unaffordable. Case in point, house prices in Nairobi have been growing at a 5.1% 4-year CAGR between 2014 and 2018, land prices at a 5.3% and 11.2% 4-year CAGR in Nairobi’s suburbs and Satellite Towns, respectively, in the same period.
Real estate development is capital-intensive, and thus developers have to explore alternative sources of capital, with current capital such as senior debt at a high cost, ranging from interest rates of 14% - 18% per annum to the Kenya Shilling. However, with the implementation of the interest rate cap at 4.0% above the Central Bank Rate (currently at 9.0%), banks have reduced credit advancement to private sector due to tightened underwriting standards, hence private sector credit growth came in at 3.4% in February, compared to a 5-year (2014-2019) average of 11.4%. Despite the capping of interest rates, the actual cost of credit is still high, averaging at 18.0% due to additional administration fees, which then raise the cost of development, thus making development expensive.
Poor planning and inadequate funding have led to lack of adequate infrastructural development, such as proper access roads, mains power and sewerage services in several parts of Kenya. Developers are thus forced to incur these costs in order to improve the marketability of their units, which are then passed on to the end buyer decreasing the affordability of the units. According to research conducted by the Centre for Affordable Housing Finance Africa in 2015 and 2016, infrastructure contributes to approximately 15% of the total development costs.
Having looked at the housing state in Kenya, the key challenges towards affordable housing, and why we need affordable housing finance, in this section we will look at what NHDF is, its formation, its operationalization and key benefits and challenges facing the fund.
The Housing Fund was established under the Housing Act 2018 Section 6 (1), under the control of National Housing Corporation (NHC) as provided for in the Housing Act Cap 117.
Essentially, the Housing Fund is expected to bridge the gap for affordable housing in Kenya by:
The success of the Housing Fund will be anchored on its funding structure, as discussed below;
Financial Structure
The funding structure will consist of stable mandatory contributions from employees, approximately 2.5 million and growing, as provided in the Finance Act 2018. It is of paramount importance that the Housing Fund funds itself in the most efficient and cost-effective manner. The key sources of capital shall include:
The funds will be accumulated in the Housing Fund and credited to each employee’s individual Housing Fund account. It is important to note that contributors are also free to contribute more if they so wish and this will reflect in their accounts. Informal sector workers are also allowed to make contributions at a minimum of Kshs 100 per month. All contributions to the fund, mandatory and voluntary, will only be accessible after retirement, and will not include the employers’ deduction. Each member shall receive from the Housing Fund, at the end of every financial year, an annual benefit statement indicating the summary of the member's Housing Fund Account.
However, despite the contributions, the Housing Scheme will only be available to first time home buyers. According to NHC, for contributors who are not eligible for the affordable houses, their contributions will be either transferred to their pension scheme registered with Retirement Benefits Authority (RBA), or refunded as cash to themselves or their dependents. The contributors eligible for affordable housing scheme will access the funds through a tenant purchase scheme or mortgages depending on income bracket.
Other sources of income will be rental revenue from completed stock, grants and donations and returns from the Fund’s investments.
To achieve its mandate, the Housing Fund will have two major roles:
National Housing Corporation established an online housing portal, Boma Yangu, where all stakeholders in the housing sector, including end-buyers and investors, interact with the Housing Fund. The portal will serve as evidence of aggregating demand from potential home buyers to developers and other investors in the affordable housing initiative, while also serving as a platform for prequalifying eligible individuals for the affordable homes under development. As per the affordable housing development framework, the various income group categories are as follows:
In the Housing Fund scheme, those who fall under social and low-cost housing categories will acquire homes through Tenant Purchase Schemes while those earning above Kshs 50,000 will purchase through low interest rate mortgage loans. The government’s strategy aims for interest rates of between 3.0% - 7.0% home loans advanced to end-buyers through the National Housing Corporation, which has been running a Tenant Purchase Scheme in its various projects.
Each year, the state will then run a lottery to allocate the houses available among the contributors paying for the houses. This is to allow for equal distribution and prevent the contributors with a stronger financial muscle from acquiring all the houses available and subsequently renting them out.
Eligible candidates will require:
Through the Housing Fund’s Affordable Housing Home Ownership Savings Plan (HOSP) employers, employees and self-employed individuals will be able to make tax-advantaged savings/contributions, which will act as a down payment in the purchase of an affordable home whereas NHC will also be able to run a national Tenant Purchase Scheme (TPS) that will provide affordable long-term financing to homeowners.
The table below shows a summary of tenant purchase scheme and expected monthly payments on social housing (To see the price estimations for the mortgage gap units, please see our recent Kenya Mortgage Refinancing Company Note);
Tenant Purchase Scheme |
||||||
Typology |
Category |
Maximum Selling Price per unit |
*Interest Rate p.a. |
Tenure |
Monthly Payments |
**Gross Monthly Income |
1 BR |
Social Housing |
0.6m |
3%-7% |
25 Years |
3,508 |
8,769 |
2 BR |
Social Housing |
1.0m |
3%-7% |
25 Years |
5,846 |
14,615 |
*To calculate monthly payments, we have used an interest rate of 5.0% (average of 3-7%) **Assuming monthly payments are 40.0% of the monthly gross income |
||||||
·The social housing gap will comprise of 1 and 2-bedroom units with maximum price points of Kshs 0.6 mn and Kshs 1.0 mn, respectively. According to State Housing and Urban Development, individuals will be acquiring the units through a rent-to-own model with monthly payments at an interest rate of 3.0%-7.0% p.a. Key to note is that, the National Housing Corporation has implemented the model in the Slum Upgrading Initiative where individuals rent towards ownership at interest rates of 3.0% for a tenure of 25 years |
With a target of at least 2,000 homes in each of the 47 counties in the first phase, the Housing Fund will provide developers with offtake agreements to purchase qualifying affordable housing units as a de-risking measure. This is expected to create confidence on the developers’ side due to the guarantee of uptake for their projects. The Offtake Agreement will be effected 12-months following the completion of a development to allow for a sufficient contractor defects liability period, after which the National Housing Corporation will make payments for the units, which in turn will provide more construction finance for more developments. To make the housing affordable, developers are expected to use alternative construction methods that the State Department of Housing and Urban Development projects will cut construction costs by at least 30.0%. To reduce the Fund’s liability, the maximum amount of guarantees the fund will offer in any year will be proposed by the management as part of its yearly budget process and ratified by the board. The Fund’s management will only be able to offer guarantees to the extent that has been ratified by the board. In addition, the regulations operationalizing Housing Fund will prohibit the Fund from having outstanding guarantees of more than 150.0% of the Fund’s equity capital at any time.
With its financial capacity and support from the government, the Housing Fund will have the following benefits to the housing sector stakeholders:
However, since its inception, the National Housing Development Fund has continuously faced legal hurdles, and also the fact that it has received heavy opposition from the Kenyan public, all of which have derailed its operationalization process. The key issues being raised include:
The housing shortage in Kenya has partly been due to developers shying away from the market due to relatively high costs of capital which ultimately lead to home prices that are out of reach for most Kenyans while buyers’ biggest challenge has been availability of affordable home financing. The Housing Fund will help the market handle these obstacles by providing capital at affordable rates while the state master developer, NHC, will be developers’ point of contact from the end-buyers side thereby ensuring they recoup their investments.
There have been several housing funds in Africa, aimed at enhancing housing ownership. The funds differ mainly in terms of the structure as some are solely funded by the target beneficiaries usually through a levy, while others are also funded by the government and/or institutions such as banks, insurance companies and pension fund administrators. Some of the housing funds in Africa include;
For our case study, we will focus on the Nigeria National Housing Fund mainly because of its similarity in structure to Kenya’s National Housing and Development Fund. In both cases, funds are mainly raised through a housing levy, and the same act as a saving for employees aimed towards house ownership.
Introduction: Nigeria National Housing Fund
It is estimated that Nigeria has a deficit of 17 mn to 20 mn houses as of 2018, according to a report by Housing Finance Africa against a national population of 190.9 mn (2017). Formal housing production is at approximately 100,000 units p.a. and this is highly inadequate as at least 1,000,000 units are needed annually to bridge the existing housing deficit by government’s target date of 2033. The major issues that continue to affect housing in Nigeria include; constraints related to the high cost of securing and registering secure land title, inadequate access to finance, slow administrative procedures, and the high cost of land. The mortgage finance industry in Nigeria is still in its infancy stages, targeting primarily high-income earners and largely excluding middle and low-income earners. In addition, for the majority of Nigerians, mortgage finance is not an option due to the lack of a robust land tenure and financial system, and because loan repayment costs remain high.
The National Housing Fund (NHF) was established through the NHF Act of 1992 with the aim of facilitating the provision of affordable housing for Nigerians. Under the NHF law, every Nigerian earning a minimum wage of N 30,000 (Kshs 8,392.3, USD 83.0) or more per month was required to contribute 2.5% of their monthly basic salary to the NHF. The funds mobilized would be made available to home-buyers at affordable interest rates of 6.0% compared to average cost of credit of 16.0%- 28.0% to finance home purchases. With the aim of providing additional sources of funding for the financing of housing development in Nigeria, the act was repealed, and the National Assembly passed the National Housing Fund (Establishment) Act 2018. Act, Cap N45.
According to the new law;
The Funds are managed and administered by the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria, which ensures that (a) the proceeds from the Fund are utilized to finance the housing sector of the economy through wholesale mortgage lending to primary mortgage institutions, and (b) the aims, objectives and functions of the Fund are effectively carried out by the bank and mortgage institutions.
The aims and objectives of the Fund include:
Shortcomings of the Nigeria NHF
The Fund has faced various problems making the purpose of the programme unachievable in addition to making it less credible to the Nigerian population.
Some these shortcomings include;
Conclusion on the Nigerian National Housing Fund
While the formation of the NHF was well intentioned, availability of funds alone will not solve the myriad of challenges facing the housing sector, which centre mostly on policies and regulations. Through the National Policy on Housing (2006) the Nigeria Federal Government intended to provide 1.0 mn affordable housing units per annum to address the housing deficit. However, as at January 2015, only 60,000 housing units had been provided despite average monthly contribution of N2.4 bn (Kshs. 675 mn, USD 6.7 mn) by its over 4.0 mn subscribers representing only about 1.5% penetration, according to online sources. Therefore, the main objective of NHF should not be just to make funding available for housing, but to create an environment that makes affordable housing possible. To achieve this, Nigeria and other developing countries, must adopt a holistic approach to the challenges facing the sector of which financing is only a component. The fact that there is no marked progress to show for the 27-years of establishing the NHF is proof that Nigeria’s housing problem cannot be solved by simply throwing more money at the problem.
Drawn from the structure and operationalization of the Nigeria NHF, there are several issues that need to be looked into for the Kenya National Housing Development Fund (NHDF) to be fruitful. We therefore recommend the following action points:
In conclusion, we are of the view that the Kenya National Housing and Development Fund is a great move by the government towards the actualization of provision of affordable housing in Kenya. If well governed and implemented, we expect the fund to be successful in raising the targeted funds and the same channelled to facilitating housing in the country. However, the fact that there is no marked progress to show for the 27-years of establishing the Nigeria NHF is proof that a country’s housing problem cannot be solved by simply enhancing financial affordability and availability. Therefore, like in Nigeria, it is important that the Kenyan government review applicable regulations and policies, and provides the right environment for private sector investment to supplement the government initiatives. With proper engagement of key stakeholders, Kenya is likely to fix its housing policies and regulatory framework.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the writers where particulars are not warranted. This publication, which is in compliance with Section 2 of the Capital Markets Authority Act Cap 485A, is meant for general information only and is not a warranty, representation, advice or solicitation of any nature. Readers are advised in all circumstances to seek the advice of a registered investment advisor.