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Recent Topicals

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Kenya Macro Economic Review

Jan 3, 2021

Economic Growth: During the first half of the year the economy contracted by 0.4% due to the 5.7% contraction in Q2’2020 down from a growth of 5.3% recorded in a similar period in 2019. The contraction was largely driven by the 83.3% decline in the accommodation and food sector following the closure of most facilities and also the reduction in tourist arrivals into the country. Some of the other sectors like agriculture helped cushion the economy from further decline.  This is the first contraction since the third quarter of 2001 when the country recorded a 2.5% contraction. Considering the recent easing of some of the restrictions and reopening of some of the sectors we expect the economy to slightly rebound and this is already reflected by the improvement in PMI where we’ve seen readings as high as 59.1 in October 2020, pointing to an improvement in the Kenya private sector outlook. The IMF October Report: A long and difficult a...

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Sub-Saharan Africa Region Review

Jan 3, 2021

Economic Growth According to the World Bank’s latest African Pulse Issue, economic activity in the region is projected to have contracted by 3.3% in 2020, while the IMF, in their Regional economic outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa publication project a 3.0% contraction, from the 2.3% growth recorded in 2019. The contraction represents the first recession in Sub-Saharan Africa in 27 years, when the regional economy contracted by 0.9% in 1993 according to World Bank data. A combination of containment measures to curb the spread of the pandemic coupled with contraction in key sectors such as global trade, tourism and diaspora remittances contributed to subdued economic activity and the subsequent contraction in economic growth. The World B...

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Global Market Review

Jan 3, 2021

Global Economic Growth  Global growth is projected to have contracted by 4.4%, according to IMF, World Economic Outlook (October 2020) led by the significant contraction of 5.5% and 3.3% for the developed and developing economies respectively.  The decline was largely due to the impact of COVID-19 more specifically: Worsening economic conditions as a result of COVID-19 infections leading to large disruptions in business activity than expected, Decline in consumption of goods and services as people had to rely on their savings due to loss of jobs and inactive business environment as well as effects from adhering to social distancing and movement restrictions set in place to reduce the Virus spread, Depressed mobility as both domestic and international travel, and, A contraction in global trade due to the measures put in place to control COVID-19 such as restricted movemen...

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Kenya’s Public Debt

Dec 27, 2020

Over the past few years, Kenya’s Public Debt has been on the rise, increasing from Kshs 1.3 tn 10 years ago to Kshs 7.1 tn now, at a 10-year CAGR of 18.5%. The rising debt has been brought about by the government’s significant borrowing to fund infrastructural projects and bridge the fiscal deficit that has averaged 7.7% of GDP since 2012, with borrowing being both direct and also by guaranteeing state corporations.  The debt mix currently stands at 51:49 external to domestic debt, respectively, compared to 45:55 external to domestic debt 10 years ago. With the current pandemic, the revenue collections have also been lagging and we expect more borrowing to bridge the gap, evidenced by the government’s plan to borrow USD 2.3 bn (Kshs 256.2 bn) loan from the IMF and up to USD 1.5 bn (Kshs 167.1 bn) from the World Bank. Key t...

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Nairobi Metropolitan Area Mixed-Use Developments (MUDs) Report- 2020

Dec 20, 2020

Last year in November, we released the Nairobi Metropolitan Area Mixed-Use Developments (MUDs) Report 2019, highlighting the performance of Mixed-Use Developments within the Nairobi Metropolitan Area and their comparison to single-use themes. According to the report, MUDs recorded an average rental yield of 7.3% in 2019 with retail, office, and residential themes within MUDs recording average rental yields of 8.4%, 7.9%, and 5.4%, respectively. This was in comparison to average rental yields of 8.0%, 7.7%, and 5.0%, for retail, office, and residential spaces, respectively, and an overall market average of 6.9% for single-themed developments. This week, we update our report based on research conducted in 8 nodes in the Nairobi Metropolitan Area, comparing the Mixed- Use Developments performance against the market performance of t...

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