Dec 13, 2020
Following the release of the Q3’2020 results by Kenyan listed banks, the Cytonn Financial Services Research Team undertook an analysis on the financial performance of the listed banks and identified the key factors that shaped the performance of the sector, and our expectations of the banking sector for the rest of the year.
Core Earnings per Share recorded a weighted decline of 32.4% in Q3’2020, compared to a weighted growth of 8.7% recorded in Q3’2019. As reported by most of the banks, the decline in the earnings was mainly attributable to the increased provisioning levels, as they covered for downgraded facilities, with the expectations of an increase in defaults across sectors on the back of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Asset quality for listed banks deteriorated in Q3’2020, with the gross NPL ratio rising by 2.6% points to 12.4% from 9.8% in Q3’2019, and higher than the 5-year average of 8.5%. The banking sector was also keen on restructuring loans in order to offer relief for their customers against the effects of COVID-19. The loan restructuring involved placing moratoriums on both interest and principal payments for three months to one year. As at the end of October 2020, the total amount of loan restructured stood at Kshs 1.4 tn representing 46.5% of the banking sector loan book.
The report is themed “Erosion of the Banking Sector’s Asset Quality amid the COVID-19 Operating Environment” where we assess the key factors that influenced the performance of the banking sector in Q3’2020, the key trends, the challenges banks faced, and areas that will be crucial for growth and stability of the banking sector going forward. As such, we shall address the following:
Section I: Key Themes That Shaped the Banking Sector Performance in Q3’2020
Below, we highlight the key themes that shaped the banking sector in Q3’2020 which include regulation, monetary policy, consolidation, asset quality, and capital conservation:
The table below highlights some of the major banks that have disclosed the amount of loans they have restructured so far;
No. |
Bank |
Amount Restructured (Kshs bn) |
% of restructured loans to total loans |
Q3’2020 y/y Change in Loan loss provision |
1 |
Kenya Commercial Bank |
105.0 |
18.2% |
242.5% |
2 |
Equity Group Holdings |
92.0 |
20.2% |
686.1% |
3 |
Diamond Trust Bank |
64.0 |
31.1% |
232.1% |
4 |
NCBA Group |
58.0 |
23.2% |
210.6% |
5 |
Absa Bank Kenya |
63.0 |
30.1% |
146.7% |
6 |
Co-operative Bank of Kenya |
39.2 |
13..8% |
89.4% |
7 |
Standard Chartered Bank of Kenya |
22.0 |
16.7% |
274.2% |
|
Total |
443.2 |
23.3% |
268.8% |
Other mergers and acquisitions activities announced after Q3’2020 include;
Below is a summary of the deals in the last 5-years that have either happened, been announced or expected to be concluded:
Acquirer |
Bank Acquired |
Book Value at Acquisition (Kshs. Bns) |
Transaction Stake |
Transaction Value |
P/Bv Multiple |
Date |
KCB Group |
Banque Commerciale Du Congo |
5.2 |
62.1% |
5.7 |
1.1x |
Nov-20* |
KCB Group |
ABC Tanzania |
Unknown |
100.0% |
Undisclosed |
0.4x |
Nov-20* |
Co-operative Bank |
Jamii Bora Bank |
3.4 |
90.0% |
1 |
0.3x |
Aug-20 |
I&M Holdings |
Orient Bank Ltd |
3.5 |
90.0% |
3.6 |
1.1x |
Jul-20* |
Commercial International Bank |
Mayfair Bank Limited |
1 |
51.0% |
Undisclosed |
N/D |
May-20* |
Access Bank PLC (Nigeria) |
Transnational Bank PLC. |
1.9 |
100.0% |
1.4 |
0.7x |
Feb-20* |
Equity Group ** |
Banque Commerciale Du Congo |
8.9 |
66.5% |
10.3 |
1.2x |
Nov-19* |
KCB Group |
National Bank of Kenya |
7 |
100.0% |
6.6 |
0.9x |
Sep-19 |
CBA Group |
NIC Group |
33.5 |
53%:47% |
23 |
0.7x |
Sep-19 |
Oiko Credit |
Credit Bank |
3 |
22.8% |
1 |
1.5x |
Aug-19 |
CBA Group** |
Jamii Bora Bank |
3.4 |
100.0% |
1.4 |
0.4x |
Jan-19 |
AfricInvest Azure |
Prime Bank |
21.2 |
24.2% |
5.1 |
1.0x |
Jan-18 |
KCB Group |
Imperial Bank |
Unknown |
Undisclosed |
Undisclosed |
N/A |
Dec-18 |
SBM Bank Kenya |
Chase Bank Ltd |
Unknown |
75.0% |
Undisclosed |
N/A |
Aug-18 |
DTBK |
Habib Bank Kenya |
2.4 |
100.0% |
1.8 |
0.8x |
Mar-17 |
SBM Holdings |
Fidelity Commercial Bank |
1.8 |
100.0% |
2.8 |
1.6x |
Nov-16 |
M Bank |
Oriental Commercial Bank |
1.8 |
51.0% |
1.3 |
1.4x |
Jun-16 |
I&M Holdings |
Giro Commercial Bank |
3 |
100.0% |
5 |
1.7x |
Jun-16 |
Mwalimu SACCO |
Equatorial Commercial Bank |
1.2 |
75.0% |
2.6 |
2.3x |
Mar-15 |
Centum |
K-Rep Bank |
2.1 |
66.0% |
2.5 |
1.8x |
Jul-14 |
GT Bank |
Fina Bank Group |
3.9 |
70.0% |
8.6 |
3.2x |
Nov-13 |
Average |
|
|
74.7% |
|
1.2x |
|
* Announcement Date ** Deals that were dropped |
The number of commercial banks in Kenya has now reduced to 38, compared to 43 banks 5-years ago. The ratio of the number of banks per 10 million population in Kenya now stands at 7.1x, which is a reduction from 9.0x 5-years ago, demonstrating continued consolidation of the banking sector. However, despite the ratio improving, Kenya still remains overbanked as the number of banks remains relatively high compared to the population. For more on this see our topical
Additionally, the acquisition valuation for banks has come down significantly, from an average acquisition multiple of 3.2x price to book value in 2013, to 0.7x price to book value in 2020, as highlighted in the chart below;
The chart below highlights the asset quality trend:
The table below highlights the asset quality for the listed banking sector:
Bank |
Q3’2019 NPL Ratio |
Q3’2020 NPL Ratio |
Q3’2019 NPL Coverage |
Q3’2020 NPL Coverage |
% point change in NPL Ratio |
% point change in NPL Coverage |
HF Group |
28.2% |
25.4% |
44.4% |
58.2% |
(2.8%) |
13.8% |
KCB Group |
8.3% |
15.3% |
56.5% |
58.5% |
7.0% |
2.0% |
NCBA Group |
12.4% |
14.1% |
60.2% |
58.3% |
1.7% |
(1.0%) |
SCBK |
14.9% |
14.8% |
77.0% |
78.2% |
(0.1%) |
1.2% |
CO-OP |
10.5% |
13.2% |
55.5% |
50.1% |
2.7% |
(5.4%) |
Stanbic Bank |
10.9% |
12.3% |
58.9% |
61.8% |
1.4% |
2.9% |
I&M Holdings |
12.7% |
11.2% |
62.5% |
66.8% |
(1.5%) |
4.3% |
Equity Group |
8.4% |
10.8% |
45.8% |
52.0% |
2.4% |
6.2% |
DTB-K |
8.9% |
7.8% |
48.0% |
62.5% |
(1.1%) |
14.5% |
ABSA Bank Kenya |
6.8% |
7.6% |
78.6% |
64.9% |
0.8% |
(13.7%) |
Mkt Weighted Average |
9.8%** |
12.4%* |
57.8%** |
59.2%* |
2.6% |
1.4% |
*Market cap weighted as at 01/12/2020 **Market cap weighted as at 29/11/2019 |
Following the release of the Q3’2020 results, as expected, most banks did not declare any interim dividends for Q3’2020 in a bid to preserve their capital amid the subdued environment. Below are some of the banks that declared an interim dividend in Q3’2019:
# |
Bank |
Dividends per share (Kshs) |
Amount (Kshs bn) |
1 |
Standard Chartered Bank |
5.00 |
1.7 |
2 |
NIC Bank |
0.25 |
0.2 |
Total |
1.9 |
Section II: Summary of the Performance of the Listed Banking Sector in Q3’2020:
The table below highlights the performance of the banking sector, showing the performance using several metrics, and the key take-outs of the performance.
Bank |
Core EPS Growth |
Interest Income Growth |
Interest Expense Growth |
Net Interest Income Growth |
Net Interest Margin |
Non-Funded Income Growth |
NFI to Total Operating Income |
Growth in Total Fees & Commissions |
Deposit Growth |
Growth in Government Securities |
Loan to Deposit Ratio |
Loan Growth |
Return on Average Equity |
NCBA |
(67.3%) |
4.8% |
4.1% |
5.3% |
3.2% |
11.8% |
48.7% |
47.7% |
8.1% |
12.5% |
63.0% |
0.4% |
3.9% |
ABSA |
(65.4%) |
1.4% |
0.8% |
1.6% |
7.1% |
4.5% |
32.7% |
(10.7%) |
4.7% |
13.1% |
84.9% |
7.8% |
15.2% |
KCB |
(43.2%) |
23.0% |
20.8% |
23.7% |
7.8% |
1.5% |
30.8% |
(14.2%) |
31.7% |
83.9% |
74.7% |
18.7% |
13.1% |
I&M |
(30.8%) |
3.0% |
8.9% |
(1.7%) |
5.3% |
1.1% |
38.1% |
(5.9%) |
7.0% |
70.9% |
73.4% |
6.7% |
2.4% |
SCBK |
(30.4%) |
(5.8%) |
(17.3%) |
(2.4%) |
7.0% |
(8.8%) |
31.1% |
(9.7%) |
8.0% |
7.6% |
1.5% |
11.2% |
12.9% |
Stanbic |
(30.2%) |
(5.4%) |
(3.1%) |
(7.3%) |
5.9% |
(18.4%) |
44.5% |
(33.3%) |
18.2% |
103.8% |
70.3% |
7.5% |
12.0% |
DTBK |
(27.8%) |
(3.4%) |
(8.9%) |
0.9% |
5.5% |
15.3% |
26.6% |
17.7% |
1.8% |
5.1% |
71.4% |
7.1% |
9.2% |
Equity |
(13.9%) |
21.7% |
21.6% |
21.8% |
7.6% |
10.1% |
38.7% |
(1.3%) |
44.5% |
37.2% |
65.7% |
30.1% |
16.9% |
Co-op |
(10.2%) |
7.1% |
(3.5%) |
11.7% |
8.0% |
(3.5%) |
36.5% |
(31.7%) |
16.4% |
50.5% |
75.7% |
5.7% |
16.4% |
HF Group |
N/A |
(12.2%) |
(16.9%) |
(1.1%) |
4.2% |
(62.2%) |
20.0% |
11.8% |
9.9% |
65.6% |
98.8% |
(4.1%) |
(7.6%) |
Q3'20 Mkt Weighted Average* |
(32.4%) |
10.8% |
8.2% |
11.7% |
7.0% |
2.1% |
35.9% |
(7.9%) |
23.1% |
47.4% |
65.6% |
15.0% |
13.0% |
Q3'19Mkt Weighted Average** |
8.7% |
4.5% |
4.3% |
4.9% |
7.7% |
15.8% |
37.9% |
22.6% |
11.0% |
3.3% |
75.7% |
11.6% |
19.3% |
*Market cap weighted as at 01/12/2020 **Market cap weighted as at 29/11/2019 |
Key takeaways from the table above include:
Section III: Outlook of the banking sector:
Based on the current tough operating environment, we believe 2020 performance in the banking sector will be shaped by the following key factors
Section IV: Brief Summary and Ranking of the Listed Banks:
As per our analysis on the banking sector from a franchise value and a future growth opportunity perspective, we carried out a comprehensive ranking of the listed banks. For the franchise value ranking, we included the earnings and growth metrics as well as the operating metrics shown in the table below in order to carry out a comprehensive review of the banks:
Bank |
Loans to Deposits Ratio |
Cost to Income Ratio |
Return on Average Capital Employed |
Deposit/Branch (Kshs bns) |
Gross NPL Ratio |
NPL Coverage |
Tangible Common Ratio |
Non-Funded Income/Revenue |
Coop Bank |
75.7% |
63.0% |
16.4% |
2.4 |
13.2% |
50.1% |
15.5% |
36.5% |
KCB Group |
74.7% |
75.2% |
13.1% |
2.1 |
15.3% |
58.5% |
13.4% |
30.8% |
DTBK |
71.4% |
65.2% |
9.2% |
2.0 |
7.8% |
54.7% |
15.8% |
26.6% |
Equity Bank |
65.7% |
70.6% |
16.9% |
2.3 |
10.8% |
52.0% |
13.1% |
38.7% |
I&M Holdings |
73.4% |
57.9% |
14.5% |
3.8 |
11.2% |
66.8% |
16.2% |
38.1% |
NCBA Group |
63.0% |
86.5% |
3.9% |
5.9 |
14.1% |
58.3% |
12.6% |
48.7% |
Absa Bank |
84.9% |
79.0% |
15.2% |
2.9 |
7.6% |
64.9% |
11.4% |
32.7% |
SCBK |
54.2% |
68.2% |
12.9% |
6.7 |
14.8% |
78.2% |
15.1% |
30.7% |
Stanbic Bank |
70.3% |
48.1% |
12.0% |
8.7 |
12.3% |
61.8% |
12.5% |
44.5% |
HF Group |
98.8% |
133.2% |
(7.6%) |
1.8 |
25.4% |
58.2% |
16.2% |
20.0% |
Weighted Average Q3'2020 |
70.6% |
70.1% |
13.9% |
3.4 |
12.4% |
59.0% |
13.7% |
35.9% |
The overall ranking was based on a weighted average ranking of Franchise value (accounting for 60%) and intrinsic value (accounting for 40%). The Intrinsic Valuation is computed through a combination of valuation techniques, with a weighting of 40.0% on Discounted Cash-flow Methods, 35.0% on Residual Income and 25.0% on Relative Valuation, while the Franchise ranking is based on banks operating metrics, meant to assess efficiency, asset quality, diversification, and profitability, among other metrics. The overall Q3’2020 ranking is as shown in the table below:
Bank |
Franchise Value Score |
Intrinsic Value Score |
Weighted Score |
Q3'2020 Rank |
H1'2020 Ranking |
I&M Holdings |
1 |
2 |
1.6 |
1 |
1 |
DTBK |
4 |
1 |
2.2 |
2 |
5 |
Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd |
2 |
5 |
3.8 |
3 |
2 |
Equity Group Holdings Ltd |
4 |
4 |
4.0 |
4 |
4 |
KCB Group Plc |
7 |
3 |
4.6 |
5 |
3 |
Stanbic Bank/Holdings |
4 |
6 |
5.2 |
6 |
6 |
ABSA |
3 |
8 |
6.0 |
7 |
7 |
NCBA Group Plc |
9 |
7 |
7.8 |
8 |
8 |
SCBK |
8 |
9 |
8.6 |
9 |
9 |
HF Group Plc |
10 |
10 |
10.0 |
10 |
10 |
Major Changes from the Q3’2020 Ranking are:
For more information, see our Cytonn Q3’2020 Listed Banking Sector Review
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the writers where particulars are not warranted. This publication, which is in compliance with Section 2 of the Capital Markets Authority Act Cap 485A, is meant for general information only and is not a warranty, representation, advice or solicitation of any nature. Readers are advised in all circumstances to seek the advice of a registered investment advisor.