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Recent Topicals

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Sub-Saharan Africa Region Review

Jan 2, 2022

Economic Growth The Sub-Saharan Africa economy is projected to expand by 3.1% in 2021 according to World Bank’s African Pulse issue and 3.0% according to the IMF, and is expected to grow further in 2022 by 3.5% and 3.8%, according to projections from the World Bank and IMF respectively. The growth will be driven by elevated commodity prices, relaxation of COVID-19 containments measures, increased vaccination and recovery in global trade. The SSA remains prone to threats such as emergence of new waves of the pandemic, coupled with slow vaccine roll out in some economies and concerns over debt sustainability. The region’s public debt to Gross domestic product is estimated at 71.0%, which i...

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Global Market Review

Jan 2, 2022

Global Economic Growth According to the October 2021 World Economic Outlook Report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy is projected to expand by 5.9% in 2021, from a contraction of 4.4% in 2020. IMF projects that the new COVID-19 variants coupled with the slow vaccine distribution as the big risk to the global economic recovery. Advanced Economies are projected to expand by 5.2%, while Developing and Emerging Markets are projected to expand by 6.4% in 2021. The recovery of the Advanced Economies has been revised down to 5.2% from 5.6%, partly attributable to the supply-chain disruptions brought about by the pandemic while that of the Developing and Emerging Markets has been revised up from 6.3% to 6.4% due to increased commodity prices that have boosted some of the commodity-exporting economies. Close to 60.0% of...

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Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA) Infrastructure Report 2021

Dec 26, 2021

In November 2019, we released the Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA) Infrastructure Report, which highlighted that approximately Kshs 717.1 bn was required to finance the construction of 463.4 Km of ongoing road projects in the NMA. Water and sewer coverage realized 0.2% and 0.1% points increase to 61.0% and 18.0% in 2018 from 59.0% and 17.0% in 2017, respectively. Since 2019, NMA’s infrastructure sector has witnessed more development activities. Currently, there are 939.6 Km ongoing construction and rehabilitation of road projects valued at Kshs 162.4 bn, whereas 99.7 Km road projects worth Kshs 4.3 bn have been completed so far in 2021, according to the Kenya Rural Roads Authority. Water and sewer network coverage both recorded 1.0% points increase to 55.8% and 19.0% in 2020, from 54.8% and 18.0%, respectivel...

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Review of the Kenyan Shilling Performance

Dec 19, 2021

In 2021, the Kenyan shilling has depreciated by 3.5% against the US Dollar (USD), mainly attributable to the increased dollar demand by energy and general importers with Kenya largely being a net importer. Key to note, this decline, though lower than the 7.7% depreciation in 2020, has pushed the Kenyan Shilling to new all-time lows, with the shilling closing at Kshs 113.0 as at 17th December 2021. This poor performance of the shilling is mainly attributable to the increased dollar demand by energy and general importers, with Kenya largely being a net importer. Global oil prices have also increased during the year, attributable to the reopening of economies globally, which has seen demand outpace fuel supply, further inflating the country’s import bill and consequently weakening the shilling. In the East African region, the currency markets have recorded a mixed performance, with the Ugandan and Tanzanian shillings gaining against the USD by 2.2% and 0.1% YTD...

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Kenya Listed Banks Q3’2021 Report

Dec 12, 2021

Following the release of the Q3’2021 results by Kenyan listed banks, the Cytonn Financial Services Research Team undertook an analysis on the financial performance of the listed banks and identified the key factors that shaped the performance of the sector.  The Asset Quality for the listed banks improved in Q3’2021, with the gross NPL ratio declining by 0.4% points to 12.0%, from 12.4% in Q3’2020. We however note that despite this marginal improvement in the asset quality, the NPL ratio remains higher than the 10-year average of 8.1%. The listed banks’ management quality also improved, with the Cost of Income ratio improving by 12.0% points to 58.1%, from 70.1% recorded in Q3’2020, as banks continued to reduce their provisioning levels following the improved business environment during the period. 

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