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Recent Topicals

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Review of Kenya’s Public Debt 2024

Jul 28, 2024

Kenya is one of the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, having registered a growth rate of 5.0% in the first quarter of 2024. Despite being one of the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa with a projected economic growth rate of 5.0%, above the region’s average of 3.7%, Kenya is grappling with a high debt burden, facing elevated risk of debt distress and significant challenges in managing its public debt, which has increased rapidly in recent years. As per the latest data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), the total public debt stood at Kshs 10.6 tn as of June 2024, compared to Kshs 10.3 tn recorded in June 2023. Notably, external debt reduced by 5.2% during the period to Kshs 5.2 tn in March 2024, from 5.4 tn in June 2023 attributable to the early partial repayment of the USD 2.0 bn Eurobond in February 2024.  Consequently, the debt t...

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Kenya Retail Report 2024

Jul 21, 2024

In July 2023, we published the Kenya Retail Report 2023, themed “Retail Expansion with Focus into Untapped Markets,” where we highlighted the progress and performance of the retail sector. The sector remained stable, with the average rental yield coming in at 7.5%, 0.7% points increase from 6.8% recorded in 2022. Additionally, the average rent per SQFT increased by 7.1% to Kshs 130 in 2023 from Kshs 122 in 2022. The average occupancy rate increased by 2.1% points, reaching 79.4% in 2023 compared to 77.3% in 2022. This increase was mainly driven by the rapid expansion of both local and foreign retailers, such as Simbisa brands, Carrefour, Naivas, and Quickmatt. This week, we update our Kenya Retail Report 2023 with the Kenya Retail Report 2024 themed “Resilient and Evolving Retail Landscape

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Special Interest Group Funds in Kenya

Jul 14, 2024

Special interest group funds in Kenya, such as the Financial Inclusion Fund (Hustler Fund) and the Youth Enterprise Fund (YEF), aim to promote financial inclusivity and support economic growth by providing accessible credit to marginalized communities. However, recent audits reveal significant issues with these funds, casting doubts on their transparency, accountability, and overall effectiveness. The Hustler Fund, for instance, faced scrutiny for its management and loan recovery processes, with inconsistencies in financial statements and systemic deficiencies in its loan management system. Similarly, the Youth Enterprise Fund has struggled with high default rates, unserviced loans, and questionable financial transactions, leading to concerns over its susta...

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Kenya’s FY’2024/2025 Budget Review

Jul 7, 2024

On 13 June 2024, the National Treasury presented Kenya’s FY’2024/2025 National Budget to the National Assembly highlighting that the total budget estimates for FY’2024/25 increased by 3.1% to Kshs 4.0 tn from the Kshs 3.9 tn in FY’2023/2024 while the total revenue inclusive of grants increased by 15.2% to Kshs 3.4 tn from  Kshs 2.9 tn in FY’2023/2024. The increase is mainly due to an 18.5% increase in ordinary revenue to Kshs 2.9 tn for FY’2024/2025, from the Kshs 2.5 tn in FY’2023/24. The FY’2024/2025 budget focuses mainly on providing solutions to the heightened concerns on the high cost of living, the measures put in to accelerate economic recovery as well as undertaking a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation to preserve the country’s debt sustainability. Notably, the government projects to narrow the fiscal deficit to 3.3% of GDP in FY’2024/25, from the estimate of 5.7% of GDP in FY’2023/24. As such,...

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Kenya Macroeconomic Review

Jun 30, 2024

According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) 2024 Economic Survey, the Kenyan economy recorded a 5.6% expansion in FY’2023, faster than the 4.9% growth recorded in FY’2022. The main contributor to Kenyan GDP remains to be the Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry sector which grew by 6.5% in FY’2023 compared to a contraction of 1.5% in FY’2022. All sectors in FY’2023, except Mining and Quarrying, recorded positive growths, with varying magnitudes across activities. Most sectors recorded improved growth compared to FY’2022, with Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Accommodation and Food Services, and Real Estate Sectors recording the highest growth improvements of 7.9% points, 6.8% points, and 2.8% points, respectively. Notably, the improved growth in the economy highlighted the economy’s resilience following multiple shocks such as supply chain...

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