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Kenya Macro Economic Outlook

Jan 13, 2019

In 2018, the Kenyan economy recorded an average growth of 6.0% for the first three quarters of 2018, compared to an average of 4.7% in a similar period in 2017. The growth was mainly supported by (i) recovery in agriculture due to improved weather conditions, (ii) increased output in the manufacturing, and wholesale & retail trade sectors, and (iii) continued recovery of the tourism sector. We project 2019 GDP growth to come in between 5.7% and 5.9%, supported by: Continued growth of the agricultural sector, as a result of expected improvement of weather conditions and increased budgetary allocation to the sector for ongoing irrigation projects, strategic food reserves, cereal and crop enhancement and crop insurance schemes, in order to enhance food security and nutrition, which is a key pillar on the “Big 4 Agenda”, Continued strong growth in the real estate and tourism sectors....

Regional Market Outlook

Jan 13, 2019

In 2019, Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to register economic growth of 3.4%, higher than 2.7% expected in 2018 and 2.6% recorded in 2017, according to the World Bank. This is due to expectations of easing drought conditions, which will boost agricultural production and improved growth in commodity driven countries such as Nigeria and Angola, which are expected to grow by 2.2% and 2.9% in 2019, up from 1.9% and (1.8%) expected in 2018, respectively. Nigeria’s economic growth is expected to be propelled by growth in the Agriculture and Services sector and on the back of an improved outlook for oil prices despite the restrained oil production and political uncertainty ahead of February’s general elections. Angola’s economic growth is expected to return to expansion in 2019, bolstered by support from the IMF, which approved a USD 3.7 bn credit facility in December 2018 to support structural and economic reforms and help the country restore external and fiscal sus...

Global Markets Outlook

Jan 13, 2019

2018 was characterized by a moderate decline in global economic growth, which was weighed down by the negative effects of the trade conflicts between the US, China and Eurozone, as well as weaker growth in key emerging markets such as China and Brazil, arising from country-specific factors such as (i) country-wide industrial action in Brazil, (ii) political uncertainty in Britain due to Brexit, and (iii) country-wide protests in France. According to the World Bank, global GDP growth in 2019 is expected to come in at 2.9%, a decline from the 3.0% recorded in 2018, as a result of softened international trade and investments, trade tensions and substantial financial markets pressure in emerging markets and developing economies. Following the flat economic growth in 2018, we look at the three key themes that we believe will shape the global markets in 2019: Monetary Policy Tightening…

Kenya Macro Economic Review

Jan 6, 2019

Economic Growth: The country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), adjusted for inflation, increased in 2018 having expanded by 5.7% in Q1’2018, 6.3% in Q2’2018 and 6.0% in Q3’2018 to record an average growth of 6.0% for the 3 quarters compared to an average growth of 4.7% over the same period in 2017. The improved growth has been against a backdrop of a stable macroeconomic environment, driven by: A recovery in agriculture, which saw the sector record an average growth of 5.3% for the first 3 quarters of 2018, due to improved weather conditions. In terms of sectoral contribution, agriculture remained the highest contributor averaging 22.4% over the same period, Improved business and consumer confidence, evidenced by the Stanbic Bank’s Monthly Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which averaged 54.3 in the 11-months to November 2018, a rise from 46.0, recorded in a similar period in...

Sub-Saharan Africa Region Review

Jan 6, 2019

According to the World Bank, Sub-Saharan Africa economic growth remained relatively strong in 2018 with preliminary data indicating that the region recorded a 2.7% GDP growth in 2018, a rise from 2.3% recorded in 2017. In East Africa, a rebound in growth was recorded in Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya, which grew by 7.7%, 6.8% and 6.0%, respectively, as at Q3’2018 driven by improved agricultural performance attributed to improved weather conditions. A slowdown was however recorded in Tanzania mainly underpinned by an unfavorable investment climate following President John Magufuli’s stringent policy changes. In Western Africa, several countries recorded growths of 6.0% and above which include Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, and Senegal. There was however subdued growth in other countries in the region such as Nigeria which recorded a growth of 1.5% in Q2’2018 compared to the economic growth rebound of 1.95% and 2.1% recorded in Q1’2018 and Q4’2017, r...