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Recent Topicals

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Kenya Banking Sector Q3’2016 Report

Dec 4, 2016

Following the release of the Q3’2016 results by banks, we undertook an analysis on the Kenyan Banking sector to point out any material changes from the H1’2016 Banking Report. In our Q3’2016 Banking Report, we analyse the results of the listed banks in the past quarter so as to determine which banks are the most attractive and stable for investment from a franchise value and from a future growth opportunity perspective.The report is themed “Transition continues, to a more stable sector, in an era of increased regulation” as the issues facing the banking sector in Kenya persist. There are some key areas of transition, which will change the banking landscape in Kenya going forward: Consolidation – Consolidation in the banking sector continues to gather pace, with weaker banks being for...

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Impact of the US Elections on the Kenyan Economy

Nov 20, 2016

On 8th November, 2016, Donald J. Trump emerged the victor in the US presidential elections, winning 290 electoral votes, out of the 270 required to emerge victorious. Further to a Republican winning the presidential seat, Republicans additionally won the House and the Senate, restoring the Party to the pinnacle of the US Government.As is the case with any change of administration, the US President-elect will try to make good on his campaign promises to the voting public, which are expected to potentially change the way the US relates with the rest of the world.  In this weekly, we look at the areas in which Kenya partners with the US, highlight the current state and impact of the partnership, then move to analyse how the landscape will most likely change under the Trump administration, and finally give our outlook on the future relations between Kenya and the US.Kenya and the US have maintained a mutually beneficial partnership for years. The US began r...

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Ease of Doing Business in Kenya

Oct 30, 2016

In our report last week focusing on Kenya’s economic growth, we noted Kenya’s economy is positioned for impressive growth and stands out in East Africa due to its economic diversity and vibrancy as it is the regional hub for innovation, technology, financial services and real estate development.This week, the World Bank released the Doing Business 2017 report. As highlighted in our Cytonn weekly report #32 (2015), the report is significant since it offers governments and policy makers a benchmarking tool useful in policy formulation to improve economy’s business regulatory environment as it highlights potential challenges and provides insight into good practices worldwide. Additionally, it is used by international investors as a guide to which countries have more favorable operating environments.Ease of Doing Business is an aggregate ranking method for countries, based on indicators th...

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Kenya’s Economic Growth

Oct 23, 2016

This month S&P, a global ratings agency, upgraded its credit outlook for Kenya from negative to stable, for both local and foreign currency long-term debt citing (i) sustained economic growth, (ii) reduced political tension, and (iii) stabilizing public debt, which is currently at 58.0% of GDP. This follows the IMF downgrading its Sub-Saharan Africa economic growth prospects to 1.4%, representing a 50% drop from the 3.5% recorded in 2015, attributing the drop mainly to: Declining oil prices, which has affected key commodity exporting economies such as Nigeria, Terrorism and humanitarian crimes, and, Critical drought particularly in Lesotho, Malawi and Zambia, as the main concerns.Despite the expected drop in GDP growth for Sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya continues to record strong GDP growth, most recently coming in at 6.2% for Q2’2016. For our focus of the week, we highlight Kenya’s economic growth path: the expectations at the begi...

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Hospitality Sector Report – “Sailing through the storm’’

Oct 16, 2016

Kenya’s real estate sector has continued to attract both local and international investors who aim to tap into the potential brought about by robust economic growth of 6.2% as at Q2’2016 and projected to be an average of 5.0% over the next decade, the growing middle class with higher disposable incomes, and improving infrastructure, which has opened up satellite towns for development. The hospitality sector in specific has recorded increased investment as seen through the establishment of hotel and serviced apartment developments. Hotel bed supply has been increasing at a 3% CAGR over the last 5-years, while the supply of serviced apartments in Nairobi alone has grown at a CAGR of 23.6% over the last 4 years. Some of the hotels in the development pipeline include Park-Inn by the Carlson Rezidor Hotel Group in Westlands, Best Western’s Premier Collection, The Alba and the City Lodge at the Upcoming Two Rivers Mall, which are expected to add 253 hotel beds to the supply over the next...

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