By Research Team, Jun 30, 2024
According to the World Bank’s June 2024 Global Economic Prospects, the global economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2.6% in 2024, similar to the estimated growth of 2.6% recorded in 2023. The latest projection is 0.6% points lower than the IMF’s projection of 3.2% growth, with the downward revision being on the back of the continued tightening of monetary policies by the Central Banks around the world aimed at curbing the elevated inflationary pressures. Notably, advanced economies are expected to record a 1.5% growth in 2024, remaining unchanged from the 1.5% expansion recorded in 2023. However, emerging markets and developing economies are projected to expand by 4.0% in 2024, marginally downwards from an estimated growth of 4.2% in 2023;
According to the World Bank, the Sub-Saharan economy is projected to grow at a moderate rate of 3.4% in 2024, which is 0.8% higher than the 2.6% growth estimate recorded in 2023. The expected recovery is primarily driven by private consumption growth as declining inflation boosts the purchasing power of household incomes. Nevertheless, the risk of debt distress remains high with more than half of countries facing unsustainable debt burdens as the region’s public debt to GDP ratio is expected to remain high at 57.0% in 2024, albeit a decline from 60.0% in 2023. The public debt is expected to remain high due to increased debt servicing costs as a result of continued currency depreciation and increased interest rates in developed economies. Additionally, many countries are providing subsidies in order to mitigate inflationary pressures, which could worsen public finance, increase public debt, and weigh down on debt sustainability;
According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) 2024 Economic Survey, the Kenyan economy recorded a 5.6% expansion in FY’2023, faster than the 4.9% growth recorded in FY’2022. The main contributor to Kenyan GDP remains to be the Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry sector which grew by 6.5% in FY’2023 compared to a contraction of 1.5% in FY’2022. All sectors in FY’2023, except Mining and Quarrying, recorded positive growths, with varying magnitudes across activities. Most sectors recorded improved growth compared to FY’2022, with Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Accommodation and Food Services, and Real Estate Sectors recording the highest growth improvements of 7.9% points, 6.8% points, and 2.8% points, respectively. The average inflation rate for the first half of 2024 came in at 5.6%, lower than the 8.5% recorded in H1’2023, mainly as a result of reduced food and fuel prices. As a result, the business environment improved in H1’2024, with the average Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) coming in at 50.5 in the first five months of 2024, up from the 48.9 recorded in the same period in 2023, as consumers increased their spending;
During H1’2024, T-bills were oversubscribed, with the overall subscription rate coming in at 132.6%, up from 121.7% in H1’2023. Investors’ preference for the 91-day paper persisted as they sought to avoid duration risk, with the paper receiving bids worth Kshs 420.6 bn against the offered Kshs 104.0 bn, translating to an oversubscription rate of 404.4%, albeit lower than the oversubscription rate of 481.8% recorded in H1’2023. Overall subscription rates for the 364-day and 182-day papers came in at 80.7% and 75.7%, higher than the 37.9% and 61.3%, respectively, recorded in H1’2023. The average yields on the 364-day, 182-day, and 91-day papers increased by 5.7% points, 6.1% points, and 6.1% points to 16.7%, 16.6%, and 16.2% in H1’2024, respectively, from 11.0%, 10.5%, and 10.2%, respectively, in H1’2023. The upward trajectory in yields is mainly on the back of investors attaching higher risks amid increased credit risk in the country, hence the need to demand higher returns to cushion against the possible loss, and, the government’s desperate need to keep borrowing in the domestic market. The acceptance rate during the period came in at 92.3%, higher than the 91.6% recorded in H1’2023, with the government accepting a total of Kshs 763.5 bn out of the Kshs 827.3 bn worth of bids received;
During the week, T-bills remained undersubscribed for the third consecutive week, with the overall undersubscription rate coming in at 32.0%, lower than the undersubscription rate of 60.0% recorded the previous week. Investors’ preference for the shorter 91-day paper persisted, with the paper receiving bids worth Kshs 4.4 bn against the offered Kshs 4.0 bn, translating to an oversubscription rate of 109.0%, albeit lower than the oversubscription rate of 148.0% recorded the previous week. The subscription rates for the 182-day and 364-day papers decreased to 14.9% and 18.3% respectively from the 39.3% and 45.5% respectively recorded the previous week. The government accepted a total of Kshs 6.1 bn worth of bids out of Kshs 7.7 bn bids received, translating to an acceptance rate of 78.7%. The yields on the government papers were on an upward trajectory, with the yields on the 364-day, 182-day, and 91-day papers increasing by 3.7 bps, 2.6 bps, and 0.6 bps to 16.79%, 16.76%, and 15.98% respectively from 16.75%, 16.74% and 15.97% respectively recorded the previous week;
In the primary bond market, the government is seeking to raise a total of Kshs 50.0 bn for budgetary support in the month of July by re-opening two bonds and issuing a tap sale. The two fixed coupon treasury bonds issued concurrently include the re-opened FXD1/2024/10 and FXD1/2008/20, with a tenor to maturity of 9.7 years and 3.9 years, respectively, and have their coupon rates set at 16.0% and 13.8% respectively. The bonds’ value dates will be 22nd July 2024, with maturity dates of 13th March 2034 and 5th June 2028 for FXD1/2024/10 and FXD1/2008/20 respectively; Given the bonds are trading at 15.0% and 17.7% for the FXD1/2024/10 and FXD1/2008/20 respectively in the secondary bond market, we expect the bidding range to come in at 15.25% - 16.55% and 17.55% - 17.75% respectively. Further, the government is seeking to raise Kshs 20.0 bn through the tap sale of the FXD1/2023/002 bond, with a tenor to maturity of 1.2 years, a coupon rate of 17.0% and a period of sale of Wednesday 26th June 2024 to Thursday 4th July 2024. The bids shall be priced at the average rate of accepted yield for the initial values which stood at 17.1%;
During Q2’2024, the equities market was on a downward trajectory, with NSE 20, NSE 25, NSE 10, and NASI declining by 5.5%, 3.8%, 3.3%, and 3.2%, respectively, taking the H1’2024 performance to gains of 22.6%, 19.8%, 19.0% and 9.8% for NSE 10, NSE 25, NASI, and NSE 20 respectively. The equities market performance during the quarter was driven by losses recorded by large caps such as DTB-K Group, Co-operative Bank, and BAT of 15.5%, 15.3%, and 14.7%, respectively. The losses were however mitigated by gains recorded by East African Breweries Limited (EABL), KCB Group, and ABSA Bank of 12.5%, 4.0%, and 0.4% respectively;
During the week, the equities market was on a downward trajectory, with NSE 20, NASI, NSE 10, and NSE 25 declining by 4.3%, 2.9%, 2.6%, and 2.2%, respectively, taking the YTD performance to gains of 22.6%, 19.8%, 19.0% and 9.8% for NSE 10, NSE 25, NASI, and NSE 20 respectively. The equities market performance was mainly driven by losses recorded by large-cap stocks such as KCB Group, Safaricom, and Equity Group of 8.5%, 4.7%, and 2.6%, respectively. The losses were however mitigated by gains recorded by East African Breweries Limited (EABL), NCBA Group, and Stanbic Bank of 2.8%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively;
In H1’2024, Kenya’s Real Estate sector recorded notable growth in terms of activity compared to a similar period in 2023, attributable to continued investments flowing into the sector. The NMA residential sector recorded a slight downturn in performance, with the average total returns coming in at 5.9%, a 0.2%-point decline from 6.1% recorded in H1’2023. The performance was primarily attributed to a decrease in the residential average y/y price appreciation which came in at 0.6% in H1’2024, 0.4%-points lower than the 1.0% appreciation recorded in H1’2023, mainly driven by reduced property transactions during the period under review. The retail sector recorded average rental yields of 7.9% in H1’2024, representing a 0.2% points y/y decline from 8.2% recorded in H1’2023. The average selling prices for land in the Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA) in H1’2024 recorded a capital appreciation of 3.9% to Kshs 132.7 mn, from Kshs 128.6 mn recorded in H1’2023;
Investment Updates:
Real Estate Updates:
Hospitality Updates:
Global Economic Growth:
According to the World Bank’s June 2024 Global Economic Prospects, the global economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2.6% in 2024, similar to the estimated growth of 2.6% recorded in 2023. The latest projection is 0.6% points lower than the IMF’s projection of 3.2% growth, with the downward revision being on the back of the continued tightening of monetary policies by the Central Banks around the world aimed at curbing the elevated inflationary pressures. Notably, advanced economies are expected to record a 1.5% growth in 2024, remaining unchanged from the 1.5% expansion recorded in 2023. However, emerging markets and developing economies are projected to expand by 4.0% in 2024, marginally downwards from an estimated growth of 4.2% in 2023.
The stabilization in global economic growth in 2024 as compared to 2023 is majorly attributable to;
The global economy is expected to remain subdued in the short term, mainly as a result of persistent inflationary pressures as well as tight monetary policies, which are expected to curtail economic growth.
Global Commodities Market Performance:
Global commodity prices registered mixed performance in H1’2024, with prices of fertilizers declining by 21.6%, which is an improvement compared to the 45.3% decrease recorded in H1’2023, mainly as a result of the stabilization in fertilizer trade volumes and improved availability of primary nutrients like nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. On the other hand, prices of precious metals, Metals and Minerals, Energy, Non-Energy and Agriculture increased by 21.4%, 15.2%, 7.8%, 6.9% and 5.1%, respectively, on the back of increased global demand coupled with easing supply chain constraints. Below is a summary performance of various commodities;
Source: World Bank
Global Equities Market Performance:
The global stock market recorded mixed performance in H1’2024, with most indices in the developed countries recording gains during the period, largely attributable to increased investor sentiments as a result of continued economic recovery following the full reopening of the economies coupled with investor preference for the stock markets in the developed countries. Notably, NASI recorded the largest gain at 44.5% in H1’2024 largely driven by gains in the large-cap stocks in the financial sector following improved earnings during the period in addition to the improved business environment as evidenced by the average Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of 50.5 in the first five months of 2024 up from the 48.7 recorded in the same period last year. NGSE ASI was the largest decliner, recording losses of 22.1% with the performance being skewed by the weakened Nigerian Naira following a recent decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria to adopt a floating exchange rate regime. Below is a summary of the performance of key indices:
*Dollarized performance
According to the World Bank, the Sub-Saharan economy is projected to grow at a moderate rate of 3.4% in 2024, which is 0.8% higher than the 2.6% growth estimate recorded in 2023. The expected recovery is primarily driven by private consumption growth as declining inflation boosts the purchasing power of household incomes. Nevertheless, the risk of debt distress remains high with more than half of countries facing unsustainable debt burdens as the region’s public debt to GDP ratio is expected to remain high at 57.0% in 2024, albeit a decline from 60.0% in 2023. The public debt is expected to remain high due to increased debt servicing costs as a result of continued currency depreciation and increased interest rates in developed economies. Additionally, many countries are providing subsidies in order to mitigate inflationary pressures, which could worsen public finance, increase public debt, and weigh down on debt sustainability.
Currency Performance:
In H1’2024, most of the select Sub-Saharan currencies depreciated against the US Dollar, mainly attributable to the elevated inflationary pressures in the region, high debt servicing costs that continue to dwindle foreign exchange reserves, and monetary policy tightening by advanced economies. The high interest rates in developed countries have led to massive capital outflows as investors, both institutional and individual seek to take advantage of the higher returns offered in developed economies. Further, the elevated inflationary pressures in most economies in the region puts pressure on the value of local currencies due to expensive importation. Below is a table showing the performance of select African currencies against the US Dollar:
Cytonn Report: Select Sub Saharan Africa Currency Performance vs USD |
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Currency |
Jun-23 |
Jan-24 |
Jun-24 |
2024 y/y change (%) |
YTD change (%) |
Ghanaian Cedi |
11.3 |
11.6 |
15.3 |
(35.1%) |
(32.5%) |
Malawian kwacha |
1043.0 |
1683.4 |
1734.0 |
(66.2%) |
(3.0%) |
Kenyan Shilling |
140.5 |
157.0 |
129.5 |
7.8% |
17.5% |
Botswana Pula |
13.4 |
13.5 |
13.6 |
(1.0%) |
(0.5%) |
Zambian Kwacha |
17.7 |
27.1 |
24.0 |
(35.6%) |
11.2% |
Nigerian Naira |
758.8 |
1191.9 |
1535.4 |
(102.4%) |
(28.8%) |
Senegal CFA Franc |
625.0 |
602.8 |
612.5 |
2.0% |
(1.6%) |
South African Rand |
18.8 |
18.7 |
18.2 |
3.4% |
2.6% |
Ugandan Shilling |
3665.0 |
3815.0 |
3710.1 |
(1.2%) |
2.8% |
Mauritius Rupee |
45.4 |
44.8 |
47.2 |
(4.0%) |
(5.4%) |
The chart below shows the year-to-date performance of different sub-Saharan African countries in H1’2024;
Source: Yahoo Finance
Key take outs from the above table and chart include:
African Eurobonds:
Africa’s appetite for foreign-denominated debt has increased in recent times with the latest issuers during the first half of 2024 being Ivory Coast, Benin, and Kenya raising a total of USD 2.6 bn, USD 0.8 bn, and USD 1.4 bn respectively. Notably, all the bonds were oversubscribed with the high support being driven by the yield hungry investors and also the outlook of positive recovery in the regional economies. It is good to note that there was a general decline in the yields of the various bonds from different countries due to general improvement in investor sentiment as the economy recovers and the easing inflationary pressures in the region. The yields of the Nigeria’s 10-year Eurobond maturing in 2031 increased marginally by 0.8% points to 10.2% as at the end of June 2024 from 9.5% recorded in December 2023. Similarly, the Yields of the Kenya’s 10-year Eurobond maturing in 2028 increased by 0.5% points to 10.3% as at the end of June 2024 from 9.8% in December 2023, partly attributable to improved investor confidence following the successful buy-back of the 2024 Eurobond maturity, increased IMF Credit funding and the strengthening of the Kenyan shilling against the dollar having gained by 17.5% on a year-to-date. Below is a graph showing the Eurobond secondary market performance of select 10-year Eurobonds issued by the respective countries:
Source: Debt Management Office Nigeria, CBK
Equities Market Performance:
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) stock markets recorded mixed performance in H1’2024, with Kenya’s stock market (NASI) being the best performing market gaining by 44.5% YTD driven by gains in the large-cap stocks in the financial sector following improved earnings during the period as well as the improved business conditions in the country as evidenced by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which came in at 51.8 as of May 2024. Nigeria’s NGSEASI was the worst performing stock market, declining by 22.1% YTD, mainly attributable to increased capital flight with investors chasing higher returns from advanced economies following hiking of interest rates as well as deterioration in investor confidence in country on the back of macroeconomic uncertainties occasioned by the high inflation at 34.0% as of May 2024 and continued weakening of the Nigerian Naira which has depreciated by 28.8% on year-to-date basis in 2024. Below is a summary of the performance of key indices:
Cytonn Report: SSA Equities Market Performance H1’2024 (Dollarized*) |
||||||
Country |
Index |
Jun-23 |
Jan-24 |
Jun-24 |
Last 12 months |
YTD Change |
Kenya |
NASI |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
10.5% |
44.5% |
Zambia |
LASILZ |
474.4 |
455.5 |
567.7 |
19.7% |
24.6% |
Uganda |
USEASI |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.1% |
20.5% |
Tanzania |
DARSDEI |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
2.3% |
12.2% |
South Africa |
JALSH |
4,038.4 |
4,137.9 |
4,383.5 |
8.5% |
5.9% |
Rwanda |
RSEASI |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
(9.7%) |
(3.9%) |
Ghana |
GSECI |
255.7 |
263.0 |
252.3 |
(1.4%) |
(4.1%) |
Nigeria |
NGEASI |
80.4 |
84.9 |
66.1 |
(17.7%) |
(22.1%) |
*The index values are dollarized for ease of comparison |
Source: Cytonn Research, Kwayisi, Yahoo Finance
The chart below shows the YTD Performance of the sub-Saharan Equities Market;
Dollarized performance
GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa region is expected to slow down, in line with the rest of the global economy. Additionally, public debt continues to be a major headwind, with high debt levels experienced in the region on the back of continued weakening of local currencies, which will make debt servicing costlier, making the region less attractive to foreign capital.
According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) 2024 Economic Survey, the Kenyan economy recorded a 5.6% expansion in FY’2023, faster than the 4.9% growth recorded in FY’2022. The main contributor to Kenyan GDP remains to be the Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry sector which grew by 6.5% in FY’2023 compared to a contraction of 1.5% in FY’2022. All sectors in FY’2023, except Mining and Quarrying, recorded positive growths, with varying magnitudes across activities. Most sectors recorded improved growth compared to FY’2022, with Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Accommodation and Food Services, and Real Estate Sectors recording the highest growth improvements of 7.9% points, 6.8% points, and 2.8% points, respectively. Notably, the improved growth in the economy highlighted the economy’s resilience following multiple shocks such as supply chain constraints, soaring global fuel prices, elevated inflationary pressures and currency depreciation. The Kenyan Economy is projected to grow at an average of 5.3% in 2024 according to various organizations as shown below:
Cytonn Report: Kenya 2024 Growth Projections |
||
No. |
Organization |
2024 GDP Projections |
1 |
International Monetary Fund |
5.3% |
2 |
National Treasury |
5.5% |
3 |
World Bank |
5.2% |
4 |
Fitch Solutions |
5.2% |
5 |
Cytonn Investments Management PLC |
5.4% |
Average |
5.3% |
Source: Cytonn Research
Key to note, Kenya’s general business environment improved in the first half of 2024, with the average Purchasing Manager’s Index for the first five months of the year coming at 50.5, compared to 48.9 recorded in a similar period in 2023. The improvement was mainly on the back of the eased inflationary pressures experienced in the country, which have seen consumers increase their spending, coupled with aggressive appreciation of the Kenyan shilling which has contributed significantly to the reduced cost of inputs and production by most businesses. The chart below summarizes the evolution of PMI over the last 24 months. (A reading above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 indicate a deterioration):
Inflation:
The average inflation rate decreased to 5.6% in H1’2024, compared to 8.5% in H1’2023, attributable to an appreciating Shilling, leading to reduced fuel prices. Notably, fuel prices decreased by 2.9%, 3.7% and 6.0% in June 2024 to Kshs 189.8, Kshs 173.1 and Kshs 163.1, from Kshs 195.5, Kshs 179.7, and Kshs 173.4 per liter in June 2023 for Super petrol, Diesel, and Kerosene, respectively. Inflation for the month of June 2024 eased to 4.6%, from 5.1% recorded in May 2024, mainly driven by a 0.2% decrease in the transport index. Below is a chart showing the inflation trend for the last five years:
For the last 12 months, Kenya’s inflation has persistently remained within the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) target range of 2.5% - 7.5%, owing to a stronger Shilling, reduced fuel and electricity prices, and efforts by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to contain the rise by raising the Central Bank Rate (CBR) by cumulative of 250 bps in June to 13.0% in June 2024 from the 10.5% CBR rate that was set in June 2023. Going forward, we expect the inflationary pressures to remain within the CBK’s preferred target, mainly on the back of stronger Shilling, reduced fuel and electricity prices. However, the high VAT on petroleum products of 16.0% is meant to hold the fuel prices elevated in the country.
June 2024 Inflation
The y/y inflation in June 2024 decreased by 0.5% points to 4.6%, from the 5.1% recorded in May 2024. This was within our expectation of a decline, but slightly below our projected range of 4.7% to 5.1%. The headline inflation in June 2024 was majorly driven by increase in prices of commodities in the following categories; transport, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels by 7.7%, 5.6% and 3.1%, respectively. The table below shows a summary of both the year on year and month on month commodity indices performance:
Cytonn Report: Major Inflation Changes – June 2024 |
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Broad Commodity Group |
Price change m/m (June-2024/May-2024) |
Price change y/y (June-2024/June-2023) |
Reason |
Transport |
(0.2%) |
7.7% |
The m/m decrease recorded in the transport Index was mainly attributable to the decline in the prices of diesel and petrol by 3.4% and 1.6% per litre respectively. |
Food and non-alcoholic beverages |
0.7% |
5.6% |
The m/m increase was mainly driven by the increase in prices of commodities such as cabbages, spinach and Sukuma wikiby 14.8%, 11.3%, and 10.7%, respectively. However, the increase was weighed down by decrease in prices of oranges, sugar and maize flour-sifted by 2.5%, 2.4%, and 2.0%, respectively |
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels |
0.4% |
3.1% |
The m/m performance was mainly driven by the increase in prices of Electricity of 50kWh and 200kWh by 3.4% and 2.9% respectively. However, the price of gas/LPG and kerosene dropped by 0.2% and 3.4% respectively. |
Overall Inflation |
0.4% |
4.6% |
The m/m decrease was mainly attributable to the 0.2% decrease in transport. |
Notably, June’s overall headline inflation was back on the decline after increasing marginally in May 2024. This resumes the declining trend seen in the three consecutive months up to April 2024. Furthermore, it has remained within the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) target range of 2.5% to 7.5% for the twelfth consecutive month. The decrease in headline inflation in June 2024 comes amid the decline in the prices for Super Petrol, Diesel and Kerosene which decreased by Kshs 3.0, Kshs 6.1 and Kshs 5.7 each respectively, and will retail at Kshs 189.8, Kshs. 173.1 and Kshs. 163.1 per litre respectively, for the period between 15th June 2024 to 14th July 2024. The chart below shows the inflation rates for the past 5 years:
Going forward, we expect inflation to remain within the CBK’s preferred range of 2.5%-7.5%, mainly on the back of a strengthened currency, tight monetary policy and reduced fuel prices. The risk, however, lies in the fuel prices which despite their decline in June 2024, still remain elevated compared to historical levels.. Key to note is that the Monetary Policy Committee maintained the Central Bank Rate at 13.0% in its June 2024 meeting, with the aim of anchoring the inflation rates further. In our view, the rate will be pegged on whether the shilling will sustain its appreciation against the dollar, resulting in a decline in the import bill and costs passed to consumers through hiked consumer prices. Additionally, favourable weather conditions may also contribute to stabilizing food prices, further supporting lower inflation rates.
The Kenyan Shilling:
The Kenyan Shilling appreciated against the US Dollar by 17.2% in H1’2024, to close at Kshs 129.5, from Kshs 156.5 as at the end of FY’2023, mainly attributable to the February buyback of the June maturity Eurobond, which alleviated the credit risk on the country, coupled with the infrastructure bond issue which attracted foreign investors as well as panic selling of dollars by investors which increased dollar supply in the market. During the week, the Kenya Shilling depreciated against the US Dollar by 0.8% to close at 129.5, from 128.6 the previous week, partly attributable to the last maturity payment of the June Eurobond.
We expect the shilling to be supported by:
The shilling is however expected to remain under pressure in 2024 as a result of:
Monetary Policy:
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met three times in H1’2024 and for the first time since October 2012, the Central Bank Rate was set at 13.0% in the first sitting in February 2024, owing to the sustained depreciation of the Kenyan Shilling and elevated inflationary pressures in the country on the back of high fuel and commodity prices. Additionally, the MPC has retained the CBR at 13.0% during its last two meetings despite a gaining Shilling, eased inflation, and an improved global outlook for growth, owing to continued stickiness in inflation in advanced economies, and persistent geopolitical tensions. Below are some of the Key highlights from the June meeting:
The MPC noted that its previous measures have successfully reduced overall inflation to the mid-point of the target range of 2.5% - 7.5%, stabilized the exchange rate, and anchored inflationary expectations. The Committee also observed that NFNF inflation has remained persistent in recent months and that interest rates in major economies are expected to stay higher for longer due to persistent inflation. The MPC concluded that the current monetary policy stance will maintain overall inflation around the mid-point of the target range in the short term while ensuring continued exchange rate stability. The MPC will closely monitor the impact of its policy measures, as well as developments in the global and domestic economy, and stands ready to take further action as necessary in line with its mandate. The Committee will meet again in August 2024.
Fiscal Policy:
The total Kenyan budget for the FY’2024/2025 National Budget increased by 7.2% to Kshs 4.0 tn from the Kshs 3.7 tn in FY’2023/2024 while the total revenue inclusive of grants increasing by 15.9% to Kshs 3.4 tn from the Kshs 2.9 tn in FY’2023/2024. The increase is mainly due to an 18.8% increase in ordinary revenue to Kshs 2.8 tn for FY’2024/2025, from the Kshs 2.5 tn in FY’2023/2024 with the increase largely dependent on the effectiveness of the Kenya Revenue Authority in collecting taxes as well as an increase in some of the existing taxes to meet its revenue target. However, there are still concerns about the government's ability to meet its revenue collection targets in FY’2024/2025, on the back of the withdrawal of the Finance Bill 2024 after the president declined to assent to it, which was meant to increase revenue by Kshs 302.0 bn, coupled with a tough operating environment.
For the FY’2023/2024, we do not expect the government to meet its revenue collection target having collected Kshs 1,928.8 bn, equivalent to 78.7% of the revised estimates of Kshs 2,452.1 bn for FY’2023/2024 and 85.8% of the prorated estimates of Kshs 2,247.8 bn in the first eleven months of FY’2023/2024. Notably, the total expenditure amounted to Kshs 3,255.8 bn, equivalent to 85.4% of the revised estimates of Kshs 3,813.3 bn, and 93.1% of the prorated expenditure estimates of Kshs 3,495.5 bn, an indication of modest spending by the government. The total borrowings as at the end of May 2024 amounted to Kshs 1232.2 bn, equivalent to 72.4% of the revised estimates of Kshs 1,701.7 bn and 79.0% of the prorated estimates of Kshs 1,559.9bn.
Going forward, we believe that the withdrawn Finance Bill will force the government to borrow more to finance the fiscal deficit owing to reduced revenue collection. We therefore expect the government to cut on its expenditure, mostly the development expenditure in order to finance the growing debt maturities and the ballooning recurrent expenditure.
Weekly Highlights:
Following nationwide protests that peaked on Tuesday 25th June 2024, President William Ruto, on Wednesday 26th June 2024 conceded to pressure from the public and declined to sign the controversial Finance Bill 2024 into law.
The proposed raft of tax changes in the Finance Bill 2024 were geared towards expanding the tax base and increasing revenues, with an expectation of raising Kshs 302.0 bn. This revenue was intended to support the government's budget of Kshs 4.0 tn for the fiscal year 2024/2025, and to address a budget deficit of Kshs 597.0 bn. The deficit is planned to be financed through external borrowing of Kshs 333.8 bn and domestic borrowing of Kshs 263.2 bn. Kenya’s total public debt to GDP ratio currently stands at 69.7%, which is higher than the 55.0% preferred by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Below we highlight some of the key tax proposals contained in the Finance Bill 2024, changes made and the implications of the withdrawal of the Bill:
b. Under the Excise Duty Act:
c. Under the Value Added Tax (VAT) Act
Changes effected to the Finance Bill 2024 included:
The withdrawal of the Finance Bill 2024 in Kenya has significant implications for the country's economy and investment landscape. The withdrawal of the Bill will create a revenue shortfall for the FY2024/2025 budget, and will likely result in Kenya missing the 3.3% fiscal deficit target this year and lead to a possible cut in development expenditure, increased borrowing, higher interest rates, and a potential rise in public debt. Furthermore, after reaching staff-level agreement with the IMF, the proposed tax measures reversal will possibly impede the disbursement of future IMF funds. Uncertainty about the budgetary trajectory and the IMF program would further complicate the government's efforts to increase external funding.
The Finance Bill's withdrawal may affect investor confidence, especially if the market perceives it as a sign of political or economic instability, and could impact both domestic and foreign investment inflows. Investors may adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to decreased market activity.
Money Markets, T-Bills Primary Auction:
During H1’2024, T-bills were oversubscribed, with the overall subscription rate coming in at 132.6%, up from 121.7% in H1’2023. Investors’ preference for the 91-day paper persisted as they sought to avoid duration risk, with the paper receiving bids worth Kshs 420.6 bn against the offered Kshs 104.0 bn, translating to an oversubscription rate of 404.4%, albeit lower than the oversubscription rate of 481.8% recorded in H1’2023. Overall subscription rates for the 364-day and 182-day papers came in at 80.7% and 75.7%, higher than the 37.9% and 61.3%, respectively, recorded in H1’2023. The average yields on the 364-day, 182-day, and 91-day papers increased by 5.7% points, 6.1% points, and 6.1% points to 16.7%, 16.6%, and 16.2% in H1’2024, respectively, from 11.0%, 10.5%, and 10.2%, respectively, in H1’2023. The upward trajectory in yields is mainly on the back of investors attaching higher risks amid increased credit risk in the country, hence the need to demand higher returns to cushion against the possible loss, and, the government’s desperate need to keep borrowing in the domestic market. The acceptance rate during the period came in at 92.3%, higher than the 91.6% recorded in H1’2023, with the government accepting a total of Kshs 763.5 bn out of the Kshs 827.3 bn worth of bids received. The chart below shows the yield growth rate for the 91-day paper during the year:
During the week, T-bills remained undersubscribed for the third consecutive week, with the overall undersubscription rate coming in at 32.0%, lower than the undersubscription rate of 60.0% recorded the previous week. Investors’ preference for the shorter 91-day paper persisted, with the paper receiving bids worth Kshs 4.4 bn against the offered Kshs 4.0 bn, translating to an oversubscription rate of 109.0%, albeit lower than the oversubscription rate of 148.0% recorded the previous week. The subscription rates for the 182-day and 364-day papers decreased to 14.9% and 18.3% respectively from the 39.3% and 45.5% respectively recorded the previous week. The government accepted a total of Kshs 6.1 bn worth of bids out of Kshs 7.7 bn bids received, translating to an acceptance rate of 78.7%. The yields on the government papers were on an upward trajectory, with the yields on the 364-day, 182-day, and 91-day papers increasing by 3.7 bps, 2.6 bps, and 0.6 bps to 16.79%, 16.76%, and 15.98% respectively from 16.75%, 16.74% and 15.97% respectively recorded the previous week.
The government closed FY’2023/24, having advertised government securities totalling Kshs 1,914.0 bn. The government accepted bids worth Kshs 2,261.1 bn, of which Kshs 1,472.1 bn and Kshs 789.0 bn were treasury bills and bonds, respectively. Total redemptions in FY’2023/24 amounted to Kshs 1,705.5 bn, with treasury bills accounting for Kshs 1,587.4 bn and bonds accounting for Kshs 124.0 bn. As a result, the government had a domestic borrowing surplus of Kshs 555.6 bn in FY’2023/24, with the government closing the year 5.7% behind its net domestic borrowing target of Kshs 589.3 bn. The chart below shows the government’s domestic borrowing as at the end of FY’2023/24:
The chart below compares the overall average T-bills subscription rates obtained in 2018, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Year to Date (YTD):
Primary T-Bond Auctions in H1’2024
During H1’2024, the Government issued two new treasury bonds, and one infrastructure bond, reopened five, and issued nine bonds on tap-sale, seeking to raise Kshs 385.0 bn. The bonds were generally oversubscribed, receiving total bids worth Kshs 657.5 bn translating to an overall subscription rate of 170.8%. The government rejected expensive bids and only accepted bids worth Kshs 518.2 bn, out of the Kshs 657.5 bn of bids received, translating to an acceptance rate of 78.8%. The table below provides more details on the bonds issued during the period:
Cytonn Report: H1’2024 Kenya Bond Issuances |
|||||||||
Issue Date |
Bond Auctioned |
Effective Tenor to Maturity (Years) |
Coupon |
Amount offered (Kshs bn) |
Actual Amount Raised (Kshs bn) |
Total bids received |
Average Accepted Yield |
Subscription Rate |
Acceptance Rate |
15/01/2024 |
FXD1/2023/005 (re-opened) |
4.5 |
16.8% |
35.0 |
25.0 |
37.2 |
18.8% |
106.1% |
67.3% |
FXD1/2024/003 |
2.9 |
18.4% |
18.4% |
||||||
22/01/2024 |
FXD1/2023/005 – Tapsale |
4.5 |
16.8% |
15.0 |
11.8 |
11.9 |
18.8% |
79.1% |
99.1% |
FXD1/2024/003 – Tapsale |
2.9 |
18.4% |
18.4% |
||||||
19/02/2024 |
IFB/2024/8.5 |
8.5 |
18.5% |
70.0 |
241.0 |
288.7 |
18.5% |
412.4% |
83.5% |
11/03/2024 |
FXD1/2024/03 (re-opened) |
2.9 |
18.4% |
40.0 |
34.3 |
43.1 |
18.4% |
107.7% |
79.6% |
25/03/2024 |
FXD1/2024/005 (re-opened) |
4.5 |
16.8% |
40.0 |
22.6 |
59.7 |
18.4% |
149.3 |
37.8 |
FXD1/2024/010 |
10.0 |
16.0% |
16.5% |
||||||
4/4/2024 |
FXD1/2023/005 – Tapsale |
4.5 |
16.8% |
25.0 |
45.8 |
47.8 |
18.4% |
191.2% |
95.9% |
FXD1/2024/010 – Tapsale |
10.0 |
16.0% |
16.5% |
||||||
22/4/2024 |
FXD1/2023/002-Reopened |
1.4 |
17.0% |
40.0 |
34.8 |
47.2 |
17.0% |
118.0% |
73.7% |
06/05/2024 |
FXD1/2024/010-Re-opened |
9.9 |
16.0% |
25.0 |
11.0 |
15.0 |
16.2% |
59.9% |
73.4% |
13/05/2024 |
FXD1/2024/010-Tapsale |
9.9 |
16.0% |
15.0 |
7.0 |
7.1 |
16.2% |
47.4% |
98.8% |
10/06/2024
|
FXD1/2023/002 - Re-opened |
1.2 |
17.0% |
30.0 |
7.1 |
8.4 |
17.1% |
28.2% |
83.8% |
FXD1/2024/003 – Re-opened |
2.6 |
18.4% |
23.8 |
24.8 |
17.6% |
82.7% |
96.0% |
||
17/06/2024
|
FXD1/2023/010 – Re-opened |
8.7 |
14.2% |
30.0 |
7.6 |
9.6 |
16.4% |
32.1% |
78.9% |
FXD1/2023/005 – Re-opened |
4.1 |
16.8% |
22.6 |
31.9 |
18.2% |
106.5% |
70.7% |
||
24/06/2024
|
FXD1/2023/010 – Tapsale |
8.7 |
14.2% |
20.0 |
7.9 |
8.8 |
16.4% |
44.2% |
89.8% |
FXD1/2023/005 – Tapsale |
4.1 |
16.8% |
10.8 |
11.2 |
18.2% |
56.1% |
96.3% |
||
FXD1/2024/003 – Tapsale |
2.6 |
18.4% |
3.3 |
3.3 |
17.6% |
16.3% |
101.6% |
||
FXD1/2023/002 – Tapsale |
1.2 |
17.0% |
1.8 |
1.8 |
17.1% |
9.0% |
99.8% |
||
H1'2024 Total |
|
|
385.0 |
518.2 |
657.5 |
|
|
|
|
H1’2023 Total |
|
|
375.0 |
442.0 |
477.7 |
|
|
|
|
H1'2024 Average |
6.2 |
17.1% |
|
|
|
17.6% |
170.8% |
78.8% |
|
H1'2023 Average |
8.1 |
13.8% |
|
|
|
14.2% |
127.4% |
92.5% |
In the primary bond market, the government is seeking to raise a total of Kshs 50.0 bn for budgetary support in the month of July by re-opening two bonds and issuing a tap sale. The two fixed coupon treasury bonds issued concurrently include the re-opened FXD1/2024/10 and FXD1/2008/20, with a tenor to maturity of 9.7 years and 3.9 years, respectively and have their coupon rates set at 16.0% and 13.8% respectively. The bonds’ value dates will be 22nd July 2024, with maturity dates of 13th March 2034 and 5th June 2028 for FXD1/2024/10 and FXD1/2008/20 respectively; Given the bonds are trading at 15.0% and 17.7% for the FXD1/2024/10 and FXD1/2008/20 respectively in the secondary bond market, we expect the bidding range to come in at 15.25% - 16.55% and 17.55% - 17.75% respectively. Further, the government is seeking to raise Kshs 20.0 bn through the tap sale of the FXD1/2023/002 bond, with a tenor to maturity of 1.2 years, a coupon rate of 17.0% and a period of sale of Wednesday 26th June 2024 to Thursday 4th July 2024. The bids shall be priced at the average rate of accepted yield for the initial values which stood at 17.1%.
Secondary Bond Market Activity:
The secondary bond market recorded increased activity, with the turnover increasing significantly by 144.9% to Kshs 768.2 bn from Kshs 313.7 bn in H1’2023, pointing towards increased activities by commercial banks in the secondary bond market. Notably, February recorded outstanding activity in the secondary bond market owing to the infrastructure bond issue which gained traction among investors. Similarly, on a year-on-year basis, the bond turnover increased significantly by 112.0% to Kshs 97.3 in June 2024, from Kshs 45.8 bn worth of treasury bonds transacted over a similar period last year. The chart below shows the bond turnover over the past 12 months;
During H1’2024, yields on the government securities were on an upward trajectory compared to the same period in 2023. We observe a humped yield curve for the medium-term bonds in the 3 to 10-year maturity range, an indication of the prevailing uncertainty in the market regarding both medium-term interest rates and inflation. Investors, apprehensive about the economic outlook in the near to medium term, are demanding higher yields for bonds in the 3 to 10-year maturity range to compensate for the perceived risks as they anticipate potential fluctuations in economic conditions in the Kenyan market on the back of the government’s debt sustainability concerns. The chart below shows the yield curve movement during the period:
Money Market Performance
The 3-month bank placements recorded 13.5% at the end of H1’2024, 3.7% points higher than the 9.8% recorded at the end of H1’2023 (based on what we have been offered by various banks). The 91-day T-bill rate increased by 5.8% points to 16.0% at the end of H1’2024 from 10.2% at the end of H1’2023, and the average Top 5 Money Market Funds increased by 6.1% points to 17.7%, from 11.6% at the end of H1’2023. The yield on the Cytonn Money Market (CMMF) increased by 5.7% points to 17.6% at the end of H1’2024, from 11.9% recorded at the end of H1’2023.
During the week, in the money markets, 3-month bank placements ended the week at 13.5% (based on what we have been offered by various banks), and the yields on the government papers were on an upward trajectory, with the yields on the 364-day and 91-day papers increasing by 3.7 bps and 0.6 bps to 16.79% and 15.98% respectively from 16.75% and 15.97% respectively recorded the previous week. The yields on the Cytonn Money Market Fund remained unchanged at the 17.6% recorded the previous week, while the average yields on the Top 5 Money Market Funds increased by 15.4 bps to 17.7% from the 17.5% recorded the previous week.
The table below shows the Money Market Fund Yields for Kenyan Fund Managers as published on 28th June 2024:
Cytonn Report: Money Market Fund Yield for Fund Managers as published on 28th June 2024 |
||
Rank |
Fund Manager |
Effective Annual Rate |
1 |
Etica Money Market Fund |
18.3% |
2 |
Lofty-Corban Money Market Fund |
18.3% |
3 |
Cytonn Money Market Fund (Dial *809# or download the Cytonn App) |
17.6% |
4 |
Arvocap Money Market Fund |
17.1% |
5 |
Kuza Money Market fund |
17.1% |
6 |
GenAfrica Money Market Fund |
16.7% |
7 |
Nabo Africa Money Market Fund |
16.6% |
8 |
GenCap Hela Imara Money Market Fund |
15.9% |
9 |
Enwealth Money Market Fund |
15.7% |
10 |
Co-op Money Market Fund |
15.7% |
11 |
Jubilee Money Market Fund |
15.6% |
12 |
Apollo Money Market Fund |
15.6% |
13 |
KCB Money Market Fund |
15.6% |
14 |
Madison Money Market Fund |
15.4% |
15 |
Mayfair Money Market Fund |
15.3% |
16 |
Mali Money Market Fund |
15.2% |
17 |
AA Kenya Shillings Fund |
15.2% |
18 |
Sanlam Money Market Fund |
15.1% |
19 |
Absa Shilling Money Market Fund |
15.0% |
20 |
Orient Kasha Money Market Fund |
14.5% |
21 |
Dry Associates Money Market Fund |
14.0% |
22 |
Old Mutual Money Market Fund |
13.6% |
23 |
CIC Money Market Fund |
13.2% |
24 |
ICEA Lion Money Market Fund |
12.3% |
25 |
Equity Money Market Fund |
12.0% |
26 |
British-American Money Market Fund |
9.7% |
Source: Business Daily
Liquidity:
In H1’2024, liquidity in the money markets tightened, as evidenced by the increase in the interbank rate to 13.5%, from 7.8% H1’2023, partly attributable to tax remittances that offset government payments. Additionally, the average volumes traded in the interbank market increased by 8.9% to Kshs 23.0 bn, from Kshs 21.1 bn recorded in H1’2023.
Similarly, during the week, liquidity in the money markets tightened, with the average interbank rate increasing by 19.3 bps to 13.3% from 13.1% recorded the previous week, partly attributable to tax remittances that offset government payments. The average interbank volumes traded decreased by 23.6% to Kshs 20.4 bn from Kshs 26.7 bn recorded the previous week. The chart below shows the interbank rates in the market over the years:
Kenya Eurobonds:
During H1’2024, the yields on Eurobonds recorded mixed performance, with the yield on the 7-Year Eurobond issued in 2019 declining by 0.2% points to 9.9% from 10.1% recorded at the beginning of the year, while the yields on the 13-year Eurobond issued in 2021 gained the most by 1.2% points to 10.8% from 9.5% recorded at the beginning of the year. Similarly, on a year-on-year basis, the yields on all Eurobonds were on a downward trend, save for the 13-year Eurobond issued in 2021 whose yield gained by 0.5% points to 10.8% from 10.3% recorded at the end of H1’2023, while the 7-year Eurobond issued in 2019 declined the most by 1.3% points to 9.9% from 11.3% recorded at the end of H1’2023.
During the week, the yields on Eurobonds were on an upward trajectory, with the yield on the 7-Year Eurobond issued in 2019 increasing the most by 33.5 bps to 9.9% from 9.6% recorded the previous week. The table below shows the summary of the performance of the Kenyan Eurobonds as of 27 June 2024;
Cytonn Report: Kenya Eurobonds Performance |
||||||
|
2018 |
2019 |
2021 |
2024 |
||
Tenor |
10-year issue |
30-year issue |
7-year issue |
12-year issue |
13-year issue |
7-year issue |
Amount Issued (USD) |
1.0 bn |
1.0 bn |
0.9 bn |
1.2 bn |
1.0 bn |
1.5 bn |
Years to Maturity |
3.7 |
23.7 |
2.9 |
7.9 |
10.0 |
6.6 |
Yields at Issue |
7.3% |
8.3% |
7.0% |
7.9% |
6.2% |
10.4% |
30-Jun-23 |
11.0% |
11.1% |
11.3% |
11.1% |
10.3% |
|
01-Jan-24 |
9.8% |
10.2% |
10.1% |
9.9% |
9.5% |
|
03-Jun-24 |
9.2% |
10.1% |
9.0% |
9.7% |
9.8% |
9.7% |
20-Jun-24 |
10.1% |
10.8% |
9.6% |
10.5% |
10.5% |
10.5% |
21-Jun-24 |
10.2% |
10.9% |
9.7% |
10.7% |
10.6% |
10.7% |
24-Jun-24 |
10.1% |
10.8% |
9.5% |
10.7% |
10.6% |
10.7% |
25-Jun-24 |
10.3% |
10.9% |
9.8% |
10.8% |
10.7% |
10.8% |
26-Jun-24 |
10.3% |
10.9% |
9.8% |
10.8% |
10.8% |
10.8% |
27-Jun-24 |
10.3% |
10.9% |
9.9% |
10.8% |
10.8% |
10.7% |
Weekly Change |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Y/Y Change |
(0.7%) |
(0.1%) |
(1.3%) |
(0.3%) |
0.5% |
- |
YTD Change |
0.5% |
0.7% |
(0.2%) |
0.9% |
1.2% |
- |
Source: Central Bank of Kenya (CBK)
H1’2024 Highlights:
Rates in the Fixed Income market have been on an upward trend given the continued high demand for cash by the government and the occasional liquidity tightness in the money market. The government closed the year 5.7% behind the total domestic net borrowing target of Kshs 589.3 bn for FY’2023/2024, having a net borrowing position of Kshs 555.6 bn as at the end FY’2023/24, mainly as a result of increasing the net domestic borrowing target to Kshs 589.3 bn from the earlier target of Kshs 474.5 bn. However, we expect a downward readjustment of the yield curve in the short and medium term, with the government looking to increase its external borrowing to maintain the fiscal surplus, hence alleviating pressure in the domestic market. As such, we expect the yield curve to normalize in the medium to long-term and hence investors are expected to shift towards the long-term papers to lock in the high returns.
Market Performance:
During Q2’2024, the equities market was on a downward trajectory, with NSE 20, NSE 25, NSE 10, and NASI declining by 5.5%, 3.8%, 3.3%, and 3.2%, respectively, taking the H1’2024 performance to gains of 22.6%, 19.8%, 19.0% and 9.8% for NSE 10, NSE 25, NASI, and NSE 20 respectively. The equities market performance during the quarter was driven by losses recorded by large caps such as DTB-K Group, Co-operative Bank, and BAT of 15.5%, 15.3%, and 14.7%, respectively. The losses were however mitigated by gains recorded by East African Breweries Limited (EABL), KCB Group, and ABSA Bank of 12.5%, 4.0%, and 0.4% respectively;
Equities turnover declined by 23.2% in H1’2024 to USD 384.2 mn, from USD 453.4 mn in H1’2023. Foreign investors became net buyers in H1’2024 with a net buying position of USD 6.6 mn, from a net selling position of USD 52.0 mn recorded in H1’2023.
During the week, the equities market was on a downward trajectory, with NSE 20, NASI, NSE 10, and NSE 25 declining by 4.3%, 2.9%, 2.6%, and 2.2%, respectively, taking the YTD performance to gains of 22.6%, 19.8%, 19.0% and 9.8% for NSE 10, NSE 25, NASI, and NSE 20 respectively. The equities market performance was mainly driven by losses recorded by large-cap stocks such as KCB Group, Safaricom, and Equity Group of 8.5%, 4.7%, and 2.6%, respectively. The losses were however mitigated by gains recorded by East African Breweries Limited (EABL), NCBA Group, and Stanbic Bank of 2.8%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively.
During the week, equities turnover declined by 25.5% to USD 6.9 mn from USD 9.3 mn recorded the previous week, taking the YTD turnover to USD 348.2 mn. Foreign investors became net sellers, with a net selling position of USD 1.1 mn, from a net buying position of USD 1.2 mn recorded the previous week, taking the YTD net selling position to USD 186.8 mn.
The market is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 5.3x, 55.3% below the historical average of 11.9x, and a dividend yield of 8.0%, 3.5% points above the historical average of 4.5%. Key to note, NASI’s PEG ratio currently stands at 0.7x, an indication that the market is undervalued relative to its future growth. A PEG ratio greater than 1.0x indicates the market may be overvalued while a PEG ratio less than 1.0x indicates that the market is undervalued.
The charts below indicate the historical P/E and dividend yields of the market;
Listed Banks’ FY’2023 and Q1’2024 Performance
During the first half of 2024, the listed banking sector released their FY’2023 and Q1’2024 results, recording y/y earnings growth of 11.4% and 29.8% in their core EPS in FY’2023 and Q1’2024, respectively. For more information, please see our FY’2023 and Q1’2024 Banking Sector Reports.
Kenya Listed Insurance FY’2023 Performance
During the first half of 2024, the listed insurance sector released their FY’2023 results, recording weighted Core EPS growth of 116.0%, compared to a weighted growth of 377.4%, in FY’2022. The sustained growth in earnings was attributable to increased premiums during the period following continued recovery by the sector from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with higher yields from government papers. For more information, please see our Kenya Listed Insurance FY’2023 Report.
Key Half-Year Highlights:
During the first half of 2023;
Universe of Coverage:
Cytonn Report: Equities Universe of Coverage |
|||||||||
Company |
Price as at 21/06/2024 |
Price as at 28/06/2024 |
w/w change |
YTD Change |
Target Price* |
Dividend Yield |
Upside/ Downside** |
P/TBv Multiple |
Recommendation |
Jubilee Holdings |
180.0 |
179.0 |
(0.6%) |
(3.2%) |
260.7 |
8.0% |
53.6% |
0.3x |
Buy |
Diamond Trust Bank*** |
46.3 |
46.5 |
0.4% |
3.9% |
65.2 |
10.8% |
51.0% |
0.2x |
Buy |
Equity Group*** |
43.4 |
42.3 |
(2.6%) |
23.5% |
60.2 |
9.5% |
52.0% |
0.8x |
Buy |
Sanlam |
6.0 |
5.9 |
(1.0%) |
(1.0%) |
8.8 |
0.0% |
48.4% |
1.7x |
Buy |
NCBA*** |
40.9 |
41.1 |
0.5% |
5.8% |
55.2 |
11.6% |
45.9% |
0.8x |
Buy |
Co-op Bank*** |
13.0 |
12.7 |
(2.3%) |
11.9% |
17.2 |
11.8% |
47.2% |
0.6x |
Buy |
Stanbic Holdings |
113.8 |
114.3 |
0.4% |
7.8% |
145.3 |
13.4% |
40.6% |
0.8x |
Buy |
KCB Group*** |
34.2 |
31.3 |
(8.5%) |
42.4% |
46.7 |
0.0% |
49.3% |
0.5x |
Buy |
Standard Chartered*** |
193.8 |
194.0 |
0.1% |
21.1% |
233.1 |
14.9% |
35.1% |
1.3x |
Buy |
ABSA Bank*** |
14.0 |
14.0 |
0.4% |
21.2% |
17.3 |
11.1% |
34.6% |
1.1x |
Buy |
CIC Group |
2.2 |
2.1 |
(2.3%) |
(7.0%) |
2.8 |
6.1% |
37.6% |
0.7x |
Buy |
Kenya Reinsurance |
2.8 |
1.4 |
(49.8%) |
(23.2%) |
3.5 |
21.1% |
167.6% |
0.1x |
Buy |
I&M Group*** |
21.5 |
21.6 |
0.5% |
23.5% |
25.5 |
11.8% |
30.2% |
0.4x |
Buy |
Britam |
6.0 |
6.0 |
0.7% |
17.5% |
7.5 |
0.0% |
24.2% |
0.8x |
Buy |
Liberty Holdings |
5.8 |
5.3 |
(8.9%) |
37.3% |
6.1 |
7.0% |
22.1% |
0.4x |
Buy |
HF Group |
4.1 |
4.0 |
(2.2%) |
16.8% |
4.5 |
0.0% |
11.7% |
0.2x |
Accumulate |
*Target Price as per Cytonn Analyst estimates **Upside/ (Downside) is adjusted for Dividend Yield ***For Disclosure, these are stocks in which Cytonn and/or its affiliates are invested in |
We are “Neutral” on the Equities markets in the short term due to the current tough operating environment and huge foreign investor outflows, and, “Bullish” in the long term due to current cheap valuations and expected global and local economic recovery. With the market currently being undervalued for its future growth (PEG Ratio at 0.7x), we believe that investors should reposition towards value stocks with strong earnings growth and that are trading at discounts to their intrinsic value. We expect the current foreign investors’ sell-offs to continue weighing down the equities outlook in the short term.
In H1’2024, Kenya’s Real Estate sector recorded notable growth in terms of activity compared to the similar period in 2023, attributable to various factors. Some of the key factors that have continued to shape the performance of the Real Estate sector include;
However, some of the challenges impeding the performance of the sector include;
Source: World Bank, Capital Markets Authority (CMA)
Sectoral Market Performance:
During H1’2024, the NMA residential sector recorded a slight downturn in performance, with the average total returns coming in at 5.9%, a 0.2%-point decline from 6.1% recorded in H1’2023. The performance was primarily attributed to a decrease in the residential average y/y price appreciation which came in at 0.6% in H1’2024, 0.4%-points lower than the 1.0% appreciation recorded in H1’2023, mainly driven by reduced property transactions during the period under review. On the other hand, the average rental yield came in at 5.4% in H1’2024, recording a 0.3%-points increase from the 5.1% rental yield recorded in H1’2023. The table below shows the NMA residential sector’s performance during H1’2024 and H1’2023;
All values in Kshs unless stated otherwise |
||||||||||||
Cytonn Report: Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA) Residential Sector Summary - H1’2024/H1’2023 |
||||||||||||
Segment |
Average of Price per SQM H1'2024 |
Average of Rent per SQM H1'2024 |
Average of Rental Yield H1'2024 |
Average of Price Appreciation H1'2024 |
Average of Total Returns H1'2024 |
Average of Rental Yield H1'2023 |
Average of Price Appreciation H1'2023 |
Average of Total Returns H1'2023 |
y/y change in Rental Yield (% Points) |
y/y change in Price Appreciation (% Points) |
y/y change in Total Returns (% Points) |
|
Detached Units |
||||||||||||
High End |
209,036 |
851 |
5.1% |
0.4% |
5.5% |
4.6% |
1.2% |
5.8% |
0.5% |
(0.8%) |
(0.3%) |
|
Upper Middle |
145,840 |
638 |
5.0% |
0.4% |
5.4% |
4.5% |
1.1% |
5.6% |
0.5% |
(0.7%) |
(0.2%) |
|
Lower Middle |
80,919 |
353 |
4.8% |
1.1% |
6.0% |
4.7% |
1.2% |
5.9% |
0.1% |
(0.1%) |
(0.1%) |
|
Detached Units Average |
145,265 |
614 |
4.9% |
0.6% |
5.6% |
4.6% |
1.2% |
5.8% |
0.3% |
(0.5%) |
(0.2%) |
|
Apartments |
||||||||||||
Upper Mid-End |
131,811 |
698 |
5.7% |
0.3% |
6.0% |
5.2% |
0.3% |
5.5% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.5% |
|
Lower Mid-End Suburbs |
95,189 |
468 |
5.3% |
0.6% |
5.9% |
5.7% |
0.7% |
6.4% |
(0.4%) |
(0.1%) |
(0.5%) |
|
Lower Mid-End Satellite Towns |
81,280 |
464 |
6.3% |
0.5% |
6.8% |
5.5% |
1.4% |
6.3% |
0.8% |
(0.9%) |
0.5% |
|
Apartments Average |
102,760 |
543 |
5.8% |
0.5% |
6.2% |
5.5% |
0.8% |
6.3% |
(0.3%) |
(0.3%) |
(0.1%) |
|
Residential Market Average |
124,012 |
579 |
5.4% |
0.6% |
5.9% |
5.1% |
1.0% |
6.1% |
0.0% |
(0.4%) |
(0.2%) |
The table below shows the NMA residential sector detached units’ performance during H1’2024;
All values are in Kshs unless stated otherwise |
||||||||
Cytonn Report: Residential Detached Units Summary H1’2024 |
||||||||
Area |
Average of Price per SQM H1'2024 |
Average of Rent per SQM H1'2024 |
Average of Occupancy H1'2024 |
Average of Uptake H1'2024 |
Average of Annual Uptake H1'2024 |
Average of Rental Yield H1'2024 |
Average of Price Appreciation H1'2024 |
Total Returns |
High End |
||||||||
Karen |
195,810 |
771 |
91.9% |
93.4% |
12.3% |
4.5% |
1.1% |
5.7% |
Rosslyn |
195,017 |
902 |
92.9% |
98.2% |
11.2% |
5.5% |
0.2% |
5.7% |
Runda |
267,283 |
1,043 |
96.9% |
97.8% |
8.9% |
5.4% |
0.2% |
5.6% |
Kitisuru |
229,485 |
884 |
91.3% |
95.0% |
10.5% |
5.0% |
0.2% |
5.2% |
Lower Kabete |
157,585 |
656 |
97.6% |
90.3% |
10.2% |
4.9% |
0.3% |
5.2% |
Average |
209,036 |
851 |
94.1% |
94.9% |
10.6% |
5.1% |
0.4% |
5.5% |
Upper Middle |
||||||||
Loresho |
151,595 |
807 |
90.6% |
90.6% |
10.6% |
5.7% |
0.2% |
5.9% |
Ridgeways |
176,696 |
871 |
87.5% |
88.3% |
9.7% |
5.4% |
0.3% |
5.8% |
Redhill & Sigona |
99,472 |
478 |
91.3% |
97.0% |
10.8% |
5.3% |
0.3% |
5.6% |
Lavington |
187,111 |
682 |
90.7% |
93.1% |
9.8% |
4.2% |
1.2% |
5.3% |
Runda Mumwe |
164,012 |
712 |
91.1% |
96.2% |
0.0% |
5.3% |
0.1% |
5.3% |
Langata |
121,539 |
450 |
91.1% |
87.1% |
7.6% |
4.2% |
0.8% |
5.0% |
South B/C |
120,456 |
469 |
91.3% |
86.3% |
10.6% |
4.7% |
0.1% |
4.8% |
Average |
145,840 |
638 |
90.5% |
91.2% |
8.4% |
5.0% |
0.4% |
5.4% |
Lower Middle |
||||||||
Thika |
64,075 |
306 |
91.1% |
90.2% |
11.9% |
6.0% |
0.8% |
6.7% |
Ngong |
76,947 |
379 |
97.1% |
93.5% |
10.2% |
5.2% |
1.5% |
6.7% |
Athi River |
86,338 |
384 |
87.8% |
93.5% |
9.8% |
5.1% |
1.3% |
6.3% |
Kitengela |
65,697 |
280 |
90.6% |
90.4% |
10.7% |
5.1% |
1.0% |
6.1% |
Ruiru |
64,509 |
339 |
87.5% |
82.8% |
12.0% |
5.4% |
0.6% |
6.0% |
Donholm & Komarock |
93,581 |
401 |
87.5% |
88.1% |
9.9% |
4.6% |
1.3% |
5.9% |
Syokimau/ Mlolongo |
75,716 |
382 |
89.0% |
91.6% |
11.2% |
4.4% |
1.3% |
5.7% |
Rongai |
87,626 |
298 |
96.9% |
95.6% |
11.5% |
4.6% |
0.9% |
5.5% |
Juja |
96,942 |
361 |
88.9% |
92.2% |
11.1% |
3.9% |
1.1% |
5.0% |
Average |
80,919 |
353 |
90.7% |
91.0% |
10.8% |
4.8% |
1.1% |
6.0% |
Detached Grand Average |
145,265 |
614 |
91.8% |
92.4% |
9.9% |
4.9% |
0.6% |
5.6% |
Source: Cytonn Research
The Key take-outs from the table include;
The table below shows the NMA residential sector apartments’ performance during H1’2024;
All values are in Kshs unless stated otherwise |
||||||||
Cytonn Report: Residential Apartments Summary H1'2024 |
||||||||
Area |
Average of Price per SQM H1'2024 |
Average of Rent per SQM Q1'2024 |
Average of Occupancy H1'2024 |
Average of Uptake H1'2024 |
Average of Annual Uptake H1'2024 |
Average of Rental Yield H1'2024 |
Average of Price Appreciation FY'2023 |
Total Returns |
Upper Mid-End |
||||||||
Westlands |
166,935 |
993 |
90.2% |
92.1% |
15.7% |
6.4% |
0.4% |
6.8% |
Kilimani |
113,708 |
661 |
90.2% |
92.0% |
15.5% |
6.4% |
0.3% |
6.7% |
Parklands |
125,887 |
634 |
95.0% |
94.7% |
10.8% |
5.8% |
0.3% |
6.1% |
Kileleshwa |
133,779 |
755 |
89.4% |
92.9% |
11.5% |
6.0% |
0.0% |
6.0% |
Loresho |
124,054 |
536 |
91.7% |
80.0% |
7.0% |
4.7% |
1.0% |
5.7% |
Upperhill |
126,501 |
607 |
88.8% |
90.0% |
11.3% |
5.1% |
0.0% |
5.1% |
Average |
131,811 |
698 |
90.9% |
90.3% |
12.0% |
5.7% |
0.3% |
6.0% |
Lower Mid-End Suburbs |
||||||||
Race Course /Lenana |
101,019 |
605 |
86.4% |
93.2% |
13.6% |
5.9% |
0.5% |
6.4% |
South C |
118,617 |
515 |
91.9% |
96.2% |
14.0% |
4.9% |
1.4% |
6.3% |
Dagoretti |
90,065 |
432 |
89.3% |
84.8% |
11.7% |
5.8% |
0.1% |
6.0% |
South B |
111,549 |
529 |
93.0% |
98.0% |
13.0% |
5.3% |
0.6% |
5.9% |
Waiyaki Way |
90,241 |
490 |
91.3% |
85.9% |
13.6% |
5.0% |
0.9% |
5.9% |
Donholm & Komarock |
79,537 |
384 |
94.0% |
96.0% |
10.0% |
5.5% |
0.3% |
5.7% |
Kahawa West |
74,611 |
378 |
88.3% |
93.8% |
8.1% |
5.1% |
0.6% |
5.7% |
Langata |
109,772 |
532 |
91.5% |
89.5% |
10.0% |
5.2% |
0.4% |
5.6% |
Imara Daima |
81,289 |
347 |
95.9% |
88.9% |
9.4% |
5.1% |
0.4% |
5.5% |
Average |
95,189 |
468 |
91.3% |
91.8% |
11.5% |
5.3% |
0.6% |
5.9% |
Lower Mid-End Satellite Towns |
||||||||
Ngong |
77,542 |
511 |
89.5% |
89.3% |
12.1% |
7.8% |
0.9% |
8.7% |
Athi River |
60,042 |
393 |
90.6% |
95.3% |
11.3% |
7.2% |
1.1% |
8.3% |
Rongai |
55,908 |
329 |
87.0% |
87.4% |
14.6% |
6.4% |
0.5% |
6.9% |
Thindigua |
105,983 |
554 |
90.4% |
88.3% |
13.2% |
5.8% |
0.8% |
6.6% |
Ruaka |
111,508 |
648 |
90.5% |
90.0% |
12.8% |
6.2% |
0.3% |
6.4% |
Syokimau |
68,079 |
340 |
87.5% |
90.8% |
9.8% |
5.4% |
0.9% |
6.3% |
Kikuyu |
82,306 |
435 |
92.3% |
95.5% |
15.0% |
5.6% |
0.4% |
6.0% |
Ruiru |
88,872 |
502 |
85.2% |
86.4% |
12.4% |
5.8% |
0.8% |
5.0% |
Average |
81,280 |
464 |
89.1% |
90.4% |
12.6% |
6.3% |
0.5% |
6.8% |
Apartment Grand Average |
102,760 |
543 |
90.4% |
90.8% |
12.0% |
5.8% |
0.5% |
6.2% |
Source: Cytonn Research
The key take-outs from the table include;
For more notable highlights during the H1’2024 please see our Q1’2024 Markets Review report
Our outlook for the NMA residential sector remains NEUTRAL, as we foresee increased activity from industry participants. The sector is expected to benefit from: i) housing demand fuelled by population growth and high urbanization rates, and ii) government infrastructure development projects, iii) government initiatives, particularly the Affordable Housing Agenda which is being rolled out countrywide. However, growth in the sector remains hindered by rising construction costs, a challenging macroeconomic climate, and limited financing options for developers.
The table below highlights the performance of the Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA) Commercial Office sector over time;
Cytonn Report: Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA) Commercial Office Returns Over Time |
|||||||
Year |
Q1'2023 |
H1'2023 |
Q3'2023 |
FY'2023 |
Q1'2024 |
H1'2024 |
∆ H1'2023/H1'2024 |
Occupancy % |
79.8% |
80.8% |
79.9% |
80.3% |
80.1% |
80.1% |
(0.6%) |
Asking Rents (Kshs/SQFT) |
97 |
98 |
100 |
103 |
103 |
103 |
4.5% |
Average Prices (Kshs/SQFT) |
12,238 |
12,238 |
12,265 |
12,673 |
12,665 |
12,677 |
3.5% |
Source: Cytonn Research
The key take-outs from the table include
For submarket performance, Westlands emerged as the top performer, achieving an average rental yield of 8.5% in FY’2023, surpassing the market average of 7.7%. Gigiri and Karen also performed strongly, with rental yields of 8.2% and 8.0%, respectively. This performance can be attributed to several factors: (i) a high concentration of Grade A offices, (ii) robust infrastructure developments such as roads, (iii) proximity to residential areas, (iv) increasing demand for high-quality offices driven by embassies, international organizations, and multinational companies, and (v) availability of after-work amenities like hotels and quality social venues. In contrast, Mombasa Road was the least performing node with an average rental yield of 6.0% in Q1’2024, 1.7% points lower than the market average of 7.7%. This lower performance can be attributed to: i) its reputation as an industrial center, which diminishes its appeal to office businesses aiming to attract clients, ii) the general perception that the area is less ideal for businesses, (iii) intense competition from other neighbourhoods such as the CBD and Upperhill, and (iv) offices of relatively lower quality, which are perceived as less attractive and thus command lower rents, as evidenced by a 72.2% occupancy rate compared to the market average of 80.1%. The table below displays the performance of sub-markets in the Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA);
All Values are in Kshs unless stated otherwise |
||||||||||||
Cytonn Report: NMA Commercial Office Submarket Performance H1'2024 |
||||||||||||
Area |
Price/SQFT H1'2024 |
Rent/SQFT H1'2024 |
Occupancy H1'2024 |
Rental Yields H1'2024 |
Price/SQFT H1'2023 |
Rent/SQFT H1'2023 |
Occupancy H1'2023 |
Rental Yields H1'2023 |
∆ in Rent |
∆ in Occupancy (% points) |
∆ in Rental Yields (% points) |
|
Westlands |
12,495 |
118 |
76.3% |
8.5% |
12032 |
110 |
78.2% |
8.6% |
7.9% |
(1.9%) |
(0.1%) |
|
Gigiri |
15,000 |
128 |
80.2% |
8.2% |
13,500 |
118 |
81.8% |
8.7% |
8.5% |
(1.6%) |
(0.5%) |
|
Karen |
14,254 |
118 |
80.5% |
8.0% |
13,431 |
118 |
83.5% |
8.8% |
(0.1%) |
(3.0%) |
(0.8%) |
|
Kilimani |
13,051 |
100 |
83.2% |
7.8% |
12,260 |
93 |
84.6% |
8.0% |
7.2% |
(1.4%) |
(0.2%) |
|
Parklands |
11,875 |
92 |
84.0% |
7.8% |
11,662 |
93 |
83.6% |
8.1% |
(1.7%) |
0.3% |
(0.3%) |
|
Nairobi CBD |
12,147 |
92 |
85.6% |
7.8% |
11,971 |
87 |
85.0% |
7.6% |
5.2% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
|
Upperhill |
13,014 |
100 |
73.2% |
6.3% |
12,605 |
97 |
78.8% |
7.3% |
3.6% |
(5.6%) |
(0.9%) |
|
Thika Road |
12,571 |
79 |
80.4% |
6.0% |
12,571 |
79 |
80.1% |
6.0% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
|
Mombasa Road |
11,325 |
79 |
72.2% |
6.0% |
11,325 |
71 |
67.9% |
5.2% |
10.1% |
4.3% |
0.8% |
|
Average |
12,677 |
103 |
80.1% |
7.7% |
12,238 |
98 |
80.8% |
7.9% |
4.5% |
(0.6%) |
(0.2%) |
Source: Cytonn Research
Notable highlights in H1’2024 include (please see our Q1’2024 Markets Review report);
Our outlook for the NMA commercial office sector remains NEUTRAL, influenced by several factors: i) the growing presence of multinational corporations in the country, which is expected to boost occupancy rates, ii) the increasing popularity of co-working spaces, and iii) a decrease in new developments in 2023, which we believe will help mitigate the current oversupply issue. However, the sector’s performance will be constrained by the persistent oversupply of office space, totaling 5.8 mn SQFT in the NMA. Investment opportunities are notable in Westlands, Gigiri, and Karen, as these areas offer relatively higher returns compared to the market average
The table below shows the performance of the retail sector performance in Nairobi Metropolitan Area from Q1’2023 to H1’2024;
(All values in Kshs unless stated otherwise) |
|||||||
Cytonn Report: Summary of Retail Sector Performance in Nairobi Metropolitan Area Q1’2023 - H1’2024 |
|||||||
Item |
Q1’2023 |
H1’2023 |
Q3'2023 |
FY'2023 |
Q1’2024 |
H1’2024 |
Y/Y 2024 ∆ |
Average Asking Rents (Kshs/SQFT) |
176 |
177 |
182 |
182 |
180 |
185 |
4.7% |
Average Occupancy (%) |
78.0% |
79.2% |
78.7% |
79.8% |
79.3% |
79.5% |
0.2% |
Average Rental Yields |
8.0% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
8.3% |
8.1% |
7.9% |
(0.2%) |
Source: Cytonn Research
The key take-outs from the table include;
In terms of sub-market performance, Kilimani, Karen, and Kiambu Road & Limuru Road displayed impressive average rental yields of 9.7%, 9.3%, and 9.0%, respectively, surpassing the overall market average of 7.9%. This robust performance was primarily driven by the increased demand for retail offerings in these locations, the presence of premium retail spaces commanding higher rents, and the provision of quality infrastructure services that enhance attractiveness for both tenants and customers. Conversely, retail spaces in Eastlands reported the lowest average rental yield at 6.4%, influenced by several factors: i) rental rates in Eastlands were significantly below the market average of Kshs 180 per SQFT, standing at Kshs 146 per SQFT due to the prevalence of lower-quality spaces in the region, ii) inadequate infrastructure across most towns within the region, hindering accessibility and sustainability for retail spaces, and, iii) the prevalence of informal retail spaces and service stations, offering competitive rates and diverse amenities, intensified market competition and impacted demand. Despite the lower yields, Eastlands experienced a significant 14.5% increase in rental rates, rising from Kshs 128 in H1’2023, far exceeding the market average growth rate of 4.7%. This surge was driven by the addition of prime high-quality spaces commanding premium rents, such as the Business Bay Square (BBS) Mall. BBS Mall, the largest mall in East and Central Africa, offers 130,000 SQM of modern, high-quality spaces, significantly contributing to the region's retail landscape.
Furthermore, a significant shift in occupancy rates has been observed in Eastlands, with a 2.1% increase compared to the market average of 0.2%. This notable rise is primarily driven by changing consumer preferences and a growing population in these areas, encouraging retailers to expand their presence beyond the city center and explore opportunities in Eastlands. This strategic expansion aims to offer convenience to local residents in the most accessible manner possible. The surge in occupancy rates is supported by rental rates in Eastlands, which are below market averages at Kshs 146, compared to the market average of Kshs 185. This intentional pricing adjustment is a strategic move to attract a broader clientele by offering more affordable options. This strategy is particularly effective given the increased demand for consumer goods, diverse services, and entertainment facilities in these rapidly developing locales. The following table illustrates the submarket performance of nodes within the Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA) in H1’2024;
(All values in Kshs unless stated otherwise) |
|||||||||
Cytonn Report: Nairobi Metropolitan Area Retail Market Performance H1’2024 |
|||||||||
Area |
Rent Kshs/SQFT H1’2024 |
Occupancy% H1’2024 |
Rental Yield H1’2024 |
Rent Kshs/SQFT H1’2023 |
Occupancy% H1’2023 |
Rental Yield H1’2023 |
∆ in Rental Rates |
∆ in Occupancy (% points) |
H1’2024 ∆ in Rental Yield (% points) |
Westlands |
239 |
79.4% |
7.1% |
216 |
77.6% |
9.1% |
10.6% |
1.8% |
(2.0%) |
Karen |
218 |
84.0% |
9.3% |
217 |
82.4% |
9.7% |
0.8% |
1.6% |
(0.4%) |
Kilimani |
198 |
81.2% |
9.7% |
190 |
84.7% |
10.1% |
3.8% |
(3.5%) |
(0.4%) |
Ngong Road |
175 |
81.5% |
7.5% |
170 |
81.0% |
7.8% |
2.7% |
0.5% |
(0.4%) |
Kiambu road & Limuru Road |
205 |
75.2% |
9.0% |
202 |
74.0% |
8.7% |
1.4% |
1.2% |
0.2% |
Thika Road |
187 |
79.3% |
7.4% |
165 |
80.7% |
7.5% |
13.0% |
(1.3%) |
(0.1%) |
Eastlands |
146 |
77.7% |
6.4% |
128 |
75.6% |
6.0% |
14.5% |
2.1% |
0.4% |
Mombasa road |
169 |
79.6% |
8.2% |
156 |
79.9% |
7.5% |
8.3% |
(0.3%) |
0.6% |
Satellite towns |
139 |
79.0% |
6.8% |
138 |
78.8% |
6.8% |
0.9% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
Average |
185 |
79.5% |
7.9% |
177 |
79.2% |
8.2% |
4.7% |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
Source: Cytonn Research
For notable highlights during the quarter; please see our Cytonn Weekly #25/2024, Cytonn Monthly – April 2024, Cytonn Markets Review – Q1’2024, and, Cytonn Monthly - February 2024.
We maintain a NEUTRAL outlook on the retail sector’s performance, which is anticipated to be influenced by several key drivers: i) continued aggressive expansion by both local and foreign retailers seeking to secure new and existing spaces to capitalize on evolving consumer preferences and market dynamics, ii) ongoing improvements in public infrastructure, including road and railway projects, are expected to enhance accessibility to new areas for retail investments, stimulating further growth opportunities, and, iii) positive demographic trends, characterized by a growing population, are anticipated to underpin increasing demand for retail goods and services. However, the sector's growth momentum may face headwinds from certain negative factors, including: i) existing oversupply, with approximately 3.0 mn SQFT of retail space in the Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA) and an additional 1.7 mn SQFT across the Kenyan retail sector, posing challenges in achieving optimal occupancy rates and rental yields, ii) rising adoption of e-commerce by retailers is diminishing the traditional demand for physical retail spaces, requiring innovative approaches to adapt to changing consumer shopping behaviors, and, iii) limited access to and high costs of financing from financial institutions for retail developments, combined with the need for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to invest in technological advancements to improve operational efficiency and market competitiveness.
During H1’2024, Industry Reports related to the Hospitality sector were released as follows;
Cytonn Report: Released Industry Report related to Hospitality Sector H1’2024 |
||
# |
Report |
Key Take-outs |
1 |
Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) February and March 2024 Reports by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) |
|
2 |
2024 Economic Survey by Kenya Bureau of Statistics |
|
3 |
Quarterly Economic Review Q4’2023 Report by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) |
|
Source; Cytonn Research
For more highlights in the hospitality sector during the quarter, please see our Cytonn Markets Review – Q1’2024.
We maintain a NEUTRAL outlook for the hospitality sector in the upcoming quarter, with several factors expected to provide support: i) intensive marketing efforts aimed at promoting Kenya’s tourism market, which are anticipated to result in improved tourist arrivals, bolstering occupancy rates for hospitality establishments, ii) positive accolades accorded to Kenya’s tourism industry on the international stage, enhancing the country's reputation as a preferred tourist destination and attracting more visitors, iii) collaborative partnerships within the tourism sector aimed at fostering growth and innovation, leveraging synergies to capitalize on emerging opportunities, iv) supportive events and initiatives within the hospitality sector aimed at boosting tourism activity and enhancing guest experiences, v) commencement of direct flights from Dubai to Mombasa by FlyDubai, which is expected to increase accessibility and attract tourists from key markets, and vi) increased promotion of local tourism initiatives by the Ministry of Tourism under its Tourism Strategy 2021-2025, emphasizing domestic tourism as a key priority for stimulating sectoral growth. However, the sector may face challenges stemming from: i) cautionary statements issued by foreign governments such as China and Canada in December 2023, which may impact international tourist arrivals and dampen demand for hospitality services, and ii) difficulty in accessing finance, as lenders may demand more collateral to mitigate elevated credit risk, potentially limiting investment in hospitality infrastructure and expansion projects.
Notable highlights in the quarter include;
We maintain a POSITIVE outlook for the sector. Going forward, we expect the sector to continue on an upward trajectory driven by: i) the rising demand for data centers in the country, ii) an increasing demand for cold rooms, especially in the Nairobi Metropolitan Area, iii) demand for quality warehouses due to the growing e-commerce business in the country, iv) support from the government, as evidenced by the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZ) and Export Processing Zones (EPZ), v) increased development activities by industry players such as ALP Africa Logistics, vi) Kenya’s continued recognition as a regional hub, hence attracting international investors, and, vii) efforts by the government to support agricultural and horticultural products in the international market.
During the week, President William Ruto signed the Appropriations Bill 2024 into law. This bill ensures that only critical spending is financed and capped at 15.0% of allocated funds until the Supplementary Appropriations Bill 2024 is processed. This decision comes in light of the President's earlier dissent on the Finance Bill 2024, which has significant implications for infrastructure projects across Kenya.
Key allocation and cuts highlights;
Housing: The housing sector's allocation stands at Kshs 85.5 bn from Kshs 87.6 bn after a Kshs 2.1 bn reduction. This cut will slow down the development of affordable housing units, exacerbating the housing deficit in the country. The reduction will affect the pace at which new housing projects can be completed, making it challenging to meet the growing demand for affordable homes. This slowdown could also impact the real estate market's stability and growth, as well as the broader economic benefits associated with increased housing development. Below is a summary table showing the current allocations and budgetary adjustments for FY’24/25.
Cytonn Report: Summary of Current Allocations and Budgetary Adjustments for FY’2024/2025 |
||||
Sector |
Initial Allocation (Kshs bn) |
Current Allocation (Kshs bn) |
Budget Cut (Kshs bn) |
Percentage Cut |
State Department for Roads |
199.4 |
184.3 |
15.1 |
7.6% |
Energy, Petroleum & Mining |
102.6 |
80.9 |
21.8 |
21.2% |
Housing |
87.6 |
85.5 |
2.1 |
2.4% |
For notable highlights during H1’2024 please see our Cytonn Monthly - May 2024, Cytonn Markets Review – Q1’2024, Cytonn Monthly - February 2024 and Cytonn Monthly - January 2024.
We anticipate that Kenya's infrastructure sector will continue to play a pivotal role in driving economic activities, bolstered by the government's dedication to: i) constructing and rehabilitating critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, railways, airports, and affordable housing units, ii) enhancing diplomatic ties and partnerships with neighboring countries to promote mutual development, and iii) increasing efforts to attract regional and international investors, thereby positioning Kenya competitively within the East African region, particularly through improved railway connections and port infrastructure. Upon completion, these projects are expected to open new areas for real estate investment across various subsectors, creating new opportunities and stimulating demand for properties, goods, and services. However, recent budgetary adjustments, including cuts to major infrastructural sectors such as roads, energy, and housing, may slow the progress of these initiatives and impact their potential benefits. While prioritization of essential projects will help mitigate some impacts, reduced funding will likely slow economic growth, limit job creation, and impact the quality of life for many Kenyans. The overall infrastructure development will depend heavily on the efficient allocation of limited funds and strategic adjustments in the forthcoming Supplementary Appropriations Bill. These budgetary shifts may impact the pace and scope of infrastructure development, potentially affecting the real estate sector's growth trajectory in the near term.
The average selling prices for land in the Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA) in H1’2024 recorded a capital appreciation of 3.9% to Kshs 132.7 mn, from Kshs 128.6 mn recorded in H1’2023. The performance was supported by;
Overall Performance:
During the period under review, land in the high-rise residential areas posted the highest year-on-year capital appreciation. This was mainly due to several factors: i) accessibility of these areas via major road networks such as the Thika Super Highway, Waiyaki Way, and Mombasa Road, ii) their close proximity to the CBD, which attracted the large population working in the CBD and its environs, as well as the rising population in the Nairobi Metropolitan Area, creating demand for housing in these areas, and iii) the affordability of land prices, attracting both buyers and investors. Notably, average land prices per acre in low-rise areas posted the least movement due to their high prices and stiff competition from lands in the commercial zones.The table below shows the overall performance of the sector across all land sub-sectors during H1’2024;
All values are in Kenya Shillings unless stated otherwise |
|||
Cytonn Report: Summary of the Performance Across All regions H1’2023 |
|||
|
H1'2023 |
H1'2024 |
Annualized Capital Appreciation |
Nairobi Middle End Suburbs- High Rise Residential Areas |
76.1 mn |
80.4 mn |
5.3% |
Un-serviced land - Satellite Towns |
15.4 mn |
16.3 mn |
5.3% |
Serviced Land - Satelllite Towns |
18.4 mn |
19.2 mn |
4.5% |
Nairobi Suburbs- Commercial Areas |
397.4 mn |
411.5 mn |
3.6% |
Nairobi High End Suburbs (Low and High Rise Areas) |
135.5 mn |
136.2 mn |
0.6% |
Average |
128.6 mn |
132.7 mn |
3.9% |
Source: Cytonn Research
Sub-markets Performance – For the unserviced satellite towns, Juja, Rongai, and Limuru were the best-performing nodes with annualized capital appreciation of 7.2%, 5.6%, and 5.4%, respectively. This performance can be mainly attributed to several factors: i) their close proximity to major transport corridors, ii) closeness to amenities such as malls, iii) relatively affordable land compared to other satellite areas, iv) a growing middle-class population pushing demand for housing, and v) a concentration of tertiary learning institutions, which creates a need for student housing. Low-rise areas experienced a slight movement in performance due to stiff competition from commercial zones, as developers are turning to commercial zones to develop high-rise projects. Additionally, land in low-rise areas is relatively higher than the market average, with the average asking price per acre at Kshs 136.2 mn, compared to the market average of Kshs 132.7 mn. The table below shows NMA’s land performance by submarkets in H1’2024;
Price in Kshs per Acre |
|||
Cytonn Report: Nairobi Metropolitan Area Land Performance By Submarkets – H1’2024 |
|||
Location |
Price H1'2023 |
Price H1'2024 |
Capital Appreciation |
Nairobi Middle End Suburbs – High Rise Residential Areas |
|||
Dagoretti |
85.6 mn |
91.1 mn |
6.0% |
Embakasi |
71.5 mn |
75.8 mn |
5.6% |
Kasarani |
74.4 mn |
74.4 mn |
4.2% |
Average |
76.1 mn |
80.4 mn |
5.3% |
Satellite Towns - Serviced Land |
|||
Juja |
14.4 mn |
15.5 mn |
7.2% |
Rongai |
17.3 mn |
18.3 mn |
5.6% |
Limuru |
23.5 mn |
24.8 mn |
5.4% |
Utawala |
16.7 mn |
17.4 mn |
4.3% |
Athi River |
5.2 mn |
5.3 mn |
1.8% |
Average |
15.4 mn |
16.3 mn |
5.3% |
Satellite Towns - Serviced Land |
|||
Athi River |
14.4 mn |
17.4 mn |
21.1% |
Syokimau |
17.2 mn |
18.5 mn |
7.6% |
Ruiru & Juja |
28.1 mn |
29.0 mn |
3.0% |
Ruai |
12.5 mn |
12.4 mn |
(0.7%) |
Rongai |
19.8 mn |
18.9 mn |
(4.8%) |
Average |
18.4 mn |
19.2 mn |
4.5% |
Nairobi Suburbs - Commercial Zones |
|||
Kilimani |
375.9 mn |
414.3 mn |
10.2% |
Westlands |
413.2 mn |
433.2 mn |
4.8% |
Upperhill |
458.2 mn |
471.4 mn |
2.9% |
Riverside |
342.1 mn |
327.1 mn |
(4.4%) |
Average |
397.4 mn |
411.5 mn |
3.6% |
Nairobi High End Suburbs (Low- and High-Rise Areas) |
|||
Kileleshwa |
301.9 mn |
316.8 mn |
4.9% |
Runda |
87.9 mn |
89.7 mn |
2.0% |
Ridgeways |
87.0 mn |
86.4 mn |
(0.7%) |
Karen |
64.5 mn |
63.6 mn |
(1.4%) |
Kitisuru |
95.0 mn |
92.5 mn |
(2.6%) |
Spring Valley |
176.5 mn |
168.3 mn |
(4.7%) |
Average |
135.5 mn |
136.2 mn |
0.6% |
Source: Cytonn Research
We maintain a positive outlook for the land sector in the Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA), considering it a dependable investment opportunity. We expect the sector's performance to be driven by several factors: (i) demand for land driven by positive demographics, (ii) government efforts to streamline land transactions through innovative solutions such as Ardhi Sasa, (iii) active participation by players in the land selling and buying segment, (iv) the launch of infrastructure development projects opening up satellite towns ,and, (v) government involvement in the Affordable Housing Program (AHP).
During the week, President William Ruto declined to sign the Finance Bill 2024. This decision came in response to widespread public outcry and intense opposition from various stakeholders. The President's refusal to assent to the bill has substantial implications for numerous sectors, particularly the real estate industry, which was poised for significant changes under the proposed legislation.
Clauses Impacting the Real Estate Sector:
We expect that the real estate sector will benefit from continued lower than was proposed construction costs due to the absence of new excise duties on imported building materials, maintaining competitive pricing and encouraging ongoing investment. However, the lack of immediate tax incentives may slow the pace of large-scale residential projects, although stable costs and market flexibility could support ongoing development activities. Speculative buying and selling of affordable housing units will continue being curbed with the resale restrictions. Participation in affordable housing schemes may see moderate growth due to the absence of specific tax reliefs.
For highlights during the quarter, please see our Cytonn Monthly – May 2024 and Cytonn Monthly – April 2024.
In the Unquoted Securities Platform, Acorn D-REIT and I-REIT traded at Kshs 24.5 and Kshs 22.0 per unit, respectively, as of 14th June 2024. The performance represented a 22.5% and 10.0% gain for the D-REIT and I-REIT, respectively, from the Kshs 20.0 inception price. The volumes traded for the D-REIT and I-REIT came in at 12.3 mn and 30.7 mn shares, respectively, with a turnover of Kshs 257.5 mn and Kshs 633.8 mn, respectively, since inception in February 2021.
Notable highlights during H1’2024 included;
REITs offer various advantages such as tax breaks, diversified asset portfolios, and consistent long-term returns. However, the ongoing decline in the performance of Kenyan REITs and their efforts to restructure their portfolios are impeding significant investments that were previously made. Additionally, there are several general challenges including: i) limited understanding of the investment vehicle among investors, ii) protracted approval procedures for establishing REITs, iii) high minimum capital requirements of Kshs 100.0 mn for trustees, and iv) minimum investment thresholds set at Kshs 5.0 mn, which continue to constrain the performance of the Kenyan REITs market.
Real Estate Performance Summary and Outlook
Below is a summary of the sectorial performance in H1’2024 and investment opportunities:
Theme |
Cytonn Report: Thematic Performance and Outlook H1’2024 |
Outlook |
Residential |
|
Neutral |
|
||
Commercial Office |
|
Neutral |
|
||
Retail |
|
Neutral |
|
||
Hospitality |
|
Neutral |
Land |
|
Positive |
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the writers where particulars are not warranted. This publication, which is in compliance with Section 2 of the Capital Markets Authority Act Cap 485A, is meant for general information only and is not a warranty, representation, advice or solicitation of any nature. Readers are advised in all circumstances to seek the advice of a registered investment advisor.